01 - Scott Sumner on *The Midas Paradox*, the Fed, and More

Daniel Griswold is a Mercatus Center Senior Research Fellow and Co-Director of the Program on the American Economy and Globalization at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He joins the show to discuss the theory of trade, dating back to Adam Smith, and his work on current US trade policy. Daniel and David discuss some of the misconceptions surrounding trade and why Americans should embrace free trade instead of protectionism. David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Daniel Griswold’s blog: https://madabouttrade.com/ David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Daniel Griswold’s Twitter: @DanielGriswold Related links: “Plumbing America’s Balance of Trade” by Daniel Griswold https://www.mercatus.org/publications/american-balance-of-trade *Mad About Trade: Why Main Street America Should Embrace Globalization* by Daniel Griswold https://www.amazon.com/Mad-About-Trade-America-Globalization/dp/193530819X “The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade” by David Autor, David Dorn, & Gordon Hanson http://www.ddorn.net/papers/Autor-Dorn-Hanson-ChinaShock.pdf

1 Maj 201759min

Josh Zumbrun is a national economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal. David and Josh discuss what seems to be the diminished status of economists in a populist era and what role economists will play in the Trump Administration. Josh also shares his thoughts on life as an economics journalist in the digital age. David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Josh Zumbrun’s WSJ archive: http://topics.wsj.com/person/Z/josh-zumbrun/7972 David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Josh Zumbrun’s Twitter: @JoshZumbrun Related links: “How to Restore Faith in Economics” by Noah Smith https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-15/how-to-restore-faith-in-economics “Donald Trump’s Cabinet Won’t Include Chairman of CEA” by Josh Zumbrun https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trumps-cabinet-wont-include-chairman-of-cea-1486670755?tesla=y

24 Apr 20171h 1min

In this week’s episode, Jim Bullard, the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, joins the show to discuss his work as a Federal Reserve executive and as a researcher in monetary policy. Bullard shares his thoughts on why inflation has been so persistently low since 2008 and whether the Fed should pursue a more symmetric inflation target. He and David also discuss the Fed’s plans for monetary policy in 2017. In Bullard’s view, the Fed should focus on reducing its balance sheet before it turns to raising rates further. (Note: this episode was recorded on April 5, 2017) Interview transcript: https://www.mercatus.org/podcasts/04172017/macro-musings-53-james-bullard-federal-reserve David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Jim Bullard’s Federal Reserve profile: https://www.stlouisfed.org/from-the-president David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth St. Louis Fed’s Twitter: @stlouisfed Related links: “Comments on the FOMC's Amendments to Its Statement on Longer-Run Goals” by James Bullard https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2016/february/bullard-comments-fomc-amendments-statement-longer-run-goals “Current Monetary Policy, the New Fiscal Policy and the Fed’s Balance Sheet” by James Bullard https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/remarks/Bullard_Economic_Club_of_Memphis_24_Mar_2017.pdf?la=en “Everything the Market Thinks About Inflation Might be Wrong” by Jon Sindreu (Wall Street Journal) https://www.wsj.com/articles/everything-the-market-thinks-about-inflation-might-be-wrong-1488796206 “As Debate Rages, Simple Analogy Shows How Fed Controls Inflation” by David Beckworth (The Hill) http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/economy-budget/324054-as-debate-rages-simple-analogy-shows-how-central-banks-still-control The Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean Inflation Rate https://www.dallasfed.org/research/pce

17 Apr 201758min

Tyler Cowen is a professor of economics at George Mason University as well as the general director of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He joins the show to discuss his new book, *The Complacent Class: The Self-Defeating Quest for the American Dream.* Tyler argues that restlessness and willingness to take risks have been key traits throughout American history. However, in the last few decades, American society has become more risk-averse. While we may have become more comfortable with less risk-taking, this complacency has led to less innovation and dynamism in the economy. Such stasis is causing economic stagnation and other woes throughout the United States. David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Tyler Cowen’s blog: http://marginalrevolution.com/ David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Tyler Cowen’s Twitter: @tylercowen Related links: *The Complacent Class: The Self-Defeating Quest for the American Dream* by Tyler Cowen https://www.amazon.com/Complacent-Class-Self-Defeating-Quest-American/dp/1250108691 *How Complacent Are You? Take the Quiz!* http://tylercowen.com/complacent-class-quiz/ “Why the Global Shortage of Safe Assets Matters” by David Beckworth http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2011/12/why-global-shortage-of-safe-assets.html "The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC" by Ulrike Malmendier, Stefan Nagel, and Zhen Yan http://www.nber.org/papers/w23228

10 Apr 201755min

George Selgin, director of the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, returns to *Macro Musings* to discuss his new proposal to reform how the Fed conducts open-market operations. He proposes abolishing the current primary dealer system and expanding the Fed’s number of counterparties. David and George also discuss the Fed’s plans for 2017 and whether it will seek to reduce its large balance sheet. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ George Selgin’s Cato archive: www.cato.org/people/george-selgin George Selgin’s Alt-M archive: https://www.alt-m.org/author/selgin/ (contains George’s monetary policy primer posts) David’s Twitter: twitter.com/DavidBeckworth George Selgin’s Twitter: twitter.com/georgeselgin Related links: *Money: Free and Unfree* by George Selgin https://www.amazon.com/Money-Free-Unfree-George-Selgin/dp/1944424296 “Reforming Last-Resort Lending: The Flexible Open-Market Alternative” by George Selgin (as part of *Prosperity Unleashed: Smarter Financial Regulation* published by the Heritage Foundation) http://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2017-02/13_ProsperityUnleashed_Chapter13.pdf

3 Apr 201757min

Steve Hanke is a professor of applied economics and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. He is also a senior fellow and director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute. Steve joins the show to discuss his work on the history of hyperinflations. David and Steve discuss what exactly constitutes hyperinflation as well as historical examples of hyperinflation from 1940s Hungary to present-day Venezuela. David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Steve Hanke’s Cato profile: https://www.cato.org/people/steve-hanke David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Steve Hanke’s Twitter: @steve_hanke Related links: Venezuela Enters the Record Book: the 57th Entry in the Hanke-Krus World Hyperinflation Table (contains full list of world hyperinflations) https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/articles/hanke-sae-december-2016.pdf

27 Mars 20171h 3min

Jeffrey Frankel is a professor and economist at Harvard University and the director of the Program in International Finance and Macroeconomics at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). He joins the show to discuss serving on the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, which officially declares the start and end of recessions. David and Jeff also discuss the monetary history of the Plaza Accord, an international agreement in 1985 to devalue the U.S. dollar. Jeff also shares his thoughts on globalization in the past few decades and current-day challenges facing it. David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Jeff Frankel’s Harvard profile: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/about/faculty-staff-directory/jeffrey-frankel Jeff Frankel’s NBER publications: http://www.nber.org/authors/jeffrey_frankel David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Related links: “Globalization of the Economy” by Jeffrey Frankel https://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/NyeGlobWPwFigPost.pdf “Globalization and Chinese Growth: End of Trends” by Jeffrey Frankel http://scholar.harvard.edu/frankel/publications/globalization-and-chinese-growth-ends-trends “The Plaza Accord: 30 Years Later” by Jeffrey Frankel https://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/PlazaAccord-PIIE2016.pdf

20 Mars 20171h

Jason Furman is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Previously, he served as the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama. He joins the show to reflect on his time in the Obama Administration. Among other things, Jason and David discuss the efficacy of fiscal policy, the fiscal multiplier, and whether the platinum coin was ever seriously considered. They also discuss the problem of declining male labor force participation, its causes, and possible solutions. David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Jason Furman’s PIIE profile: https://piie.com/experts/senior-research-staff/jason-furman David’s Twitter: @davidbeckworth Jason Furman’s Twitter: @jasonfurman Related links: “The New View of Fiscal Policy and Its Application” by Jason Furman http://voxeu.org/article/new-view-fiscal-policy-and-its-application “The Long-Term Decline in US Prime-Age Male Labor Force Participation” by Jason Furman http://voxeu.org/article/long-term-decline-us-prime-age-male-labour-force-participation-and-policies-address-it

13 Mars 201759min