02 - John Taylor on the Taylor Rule, the 2008 Crisis, and Fed Reform

Sam Hammond is a poverty and welfare policy analyst for the Niskanen Center and has recently published a new paper titled, *The Free-Market Welfare State: Preserving Dynamism in a Volatile World*. He joins the show today to discuss the paper along with some of his other research. Sam and David also discuss the repercussions of the China shock, how to reform America’s welfare system, and the design characteristics that would define an ideal social insurance state. Sam’s Twitter: @hamandcheese Sam’s Medium profile: https://medium.com/@hamandcheese Related Links: *The Free-Market Welfare State: Preserving Dynamism in a Volatile World* by Sam Hammond https://niskanencenter.org/blog/the-free-market-welfare-state-preserving-dynamism-in-a-volatile-world/ *From Tiananmen to Outsourcing: the Effect of rising Import Competition on Congressional Voting Towards China* by John Seungmin Kuk, Deborah Seligsohn, & Jiakun Jack Zhang https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10670564.2017.1363024?journalCode=cjcc20 *Populism and the Economics of Globalization* by Dani Rodrik https://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rodrik/files/populism_and_the_economics_of_globalization.pdf *Food Stamp Entrepreneurs* by Gareth Olds https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Publication%20Files/16-143_2cf7ba14-5bfa-4c34-85d9-0edc0ddc7ce6.pdf *If You Want to Rebuild Civil Society, Don’t Abolish Welfare – Decentralize it* by Sam Hammond https://niskanencenter.org/blog/rebuild-american-community/ *Diversity and Crowd-Out: A Theory of Cold-glow Giving* by Daniel M. Hungerman http://www.nber.org/papers/w13348.pdf *It Takes a Nation* by Rebecca Blank https://www.amazon.com/Takes-Nation-Rebecca-M-Blank/dp/0691004013 *Filthy Lucre: Economics for People Who Hate Capitalism* by Joseph Heath https://www.amazon.com/Filthy-Lucre-Economics-People-Capitalism-ebook/dp/B0058DTHNU David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

28 Maj 201857min

Michael Darda is a chief economist and market strategist at MKM Partners. Michael is also a frequent guest on financial television and radio and is routinely quoted in “The Wall Street Journal”, “The New York Times”, “Barron’s”, and other financial publications. He joins the show today to talk about his work conducting macroeconomic market research as well as his views on the market itself. David and Michael also discuss his shift from supply-side economics to market monetarism, the Fed’s performance during and after the Great Recession, and the potential effects of a flattening Treasury yield curve. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Michael’s MKM Partners profile: http://www.mkmpartners.com/research/ Michael’s Bloomberg profile: https://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/private/person.asp?personId=48822180&privcapId=40334090

21 Maj 20181h 1min

Razeen Sally is an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore and formerly taught at the London School of Economics. He is also the Chairman of the Institute of Policy Studies, the main economic policy think tank in Sri Lanka and a senior advisor to Sri Lanka’s Minister of Finance. Today, he joins the show to discuss the state of international economic affairs and how it specifically relates to Asia. Razeen explains why he believes the U.S. should stay engaged within Asia and also shares his thoughts on China’s demographic problem as well as the effects of the Trump administration’s increased protectionism. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Razeen’s Lee Kuan Yew profile: http://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/our-people/our-faculty/faculty-profile/razeen-sally Razeen’s Twitter: @razeensally Related Links: *Why Global Order Still Needs America in Asia* by Razeen Sally http://ecipe.org/app/uploads/2017/07/Razeen-Sally-Quadrant-July-2017.pdf

14 Maj 201859min

David is the Vice President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, and has published widely in the field of monetary economics. He also writes for his blog, MacroMania, where he covers a multitude of economic topics. David joins the show today to discuss the economics behind the Phillips Curve, and to help provide a greater understanding of the debate surrounding it. They also discuss the mystery of low inflation in the United States, the excess money demand problem, and the important role debt plays within international monetary policy. David Beckworth’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David Andolfatto’s Twitter: @dandolfa David Andolfatto’s blog: andolfatto.blogspot.com

7 Maj 201859min

Jim Hamilton is a professor of economics at the University of California-San Diego and the author of *Time Series Analysis,* a popular graduate-level econometrics textbook. Today, Jim joins the show to discuss his work in econometrics as well as his research on the role oil plays in the U.S. economy. He also shares his thoughts on how oil will continue to shape the economy in light of the rise of clean energy. David and Jim also discuss recent U.S. monetary policy and why interest rates have been so very low. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Jim Hamilton’s UC San Diego profile: http://econweb.ucsd.edu/~jhamilton/ Jim Hamilton’s Twitter: @JHamilton _UCSD Jim Hamilton's blog: http://econbrowser.com/ *Time Series Analysis* by James Hamilton https://www.amazon.com/Time-Analysis-James-Douglas-Hamilton/dp/0691042896

30 Apr 20181h 3min

Daniela Gabor is a professor of economics and finance at the University of West England at Bristol and a monetary economist. She specializes in shadow banking, capital markets, and transnational banking. Today, she joins the show to discuss her new paper, *Chasing Unicorns: The European Single Safe Asset Project*. David and Daniela also discuss merits of equity-based banking, elements of the shadow banking system, and Europe’s quest for a safe asset. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Daniela’s Twitter: @DanielaGabor Daniela’s UWE Bristol profile: https://people.uwe.ac.uk/Person/DanielaGabor Related Links: *Chasing Unicorns: The European Single Safe Asset Project* by Daniela Gabor http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1024529418759638 *Inside Safe Assets* by Anna Gelpern and Erik Gerding https://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/facpub/1831/ *The Growth of Financial Banking* by Anna Youngman https://www.jstor.org/stable/1817326?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents *The Repo and Reverse Markets* by Marcia Stigum https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Repo_and_Reverse_Markets.html?id=wJ6OZlHFYDoC *The New York Money Market: Origins and Development* and *The New York Money Market: Uses of Funds* by Margaret Myers et al. https://books.google.com/books/about/The_New_York_Money_Market_Origins_and_de.html?id=InFaAAAAYAAJ https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/The_New_York_Money_Market_Uses_of_funds.html?id=cXVaAAAAYAAJ&redir_esc=y

23 Apr 20181h 2min

Morgan Ricks is a law professor at Vanderbilt University. Previously, he was a senior policy advisor and financial restructuring expert at the U.S. Treasury Department where he focused primarily on financial stability initiatives and capital market policy in response to the financial crisis. Today, he joins the show to discuss his new paper, *Money as Infrastructure* where he contrasts what he calls the “intermediation paradigm” of banking and the “money paradigm.” Morgan also shares his thoughts on the government’s role in money, the history of free banking, and current-day banking regulation. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Morgan’s Twitter: @MorganRicks1 Morgan’s Vanderbilt profile: https://law.vanderbilt.edu/bio/morgan-ricks Related Links: *Money as Infrastructure* by Morgan Ricks https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3070270 *The Money Problem* by Morgan Ricks http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/M/bo22438821.html

16 Apr 20181h 18min

Ioana Marinescu is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Pennsylvania and a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Today she joins the show to highlight her work on the concept of a Universal Basic Income (UBI). David and Ioana discuss how a UBI would work and how it compares and contrasts with Milton Friedman’s related negative income tax proposal. They also discuss the economic and social effects of a UBI, some experimental evidence of the policy, and the political feasibility of such a program. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Ioana’s Twitter: @mioana Ioana’s website: http://www.marinescu.eu/ Related Links: *No Strings Attached: The Behavioral Effects of U.S. Unconditional Cash Transfer Programs* by Ioana Marinescu http://www.marinescu.eu/Marinescu_UBI_review_2017.pdf *The Labor Market Impacts of Universal and Permanent Cash Transfers: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund* by Damon Jones and Ioana Marinescu http://home.uchicago.edu/~j1s/Jones_Alaska.pdf

9 Apr 201853min