AI Bubble, Stablecoin Boom, and Runnin' Down a Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner

AI Bubble, Stablecoin Boom, and Runnin' Down a Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner

Pre-Order Runnin' Down a Dream now: https://a.co/d/0oIPPve

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they unpack the $3T AI buildout, circular revenue red flags, and whether the boom is becoming a bubble. They dive into the rise of stablecoins and the new financial rails reshaping money, the fight over AI regulation in America, and Bill’s next chapter—his new book Runnin' Down a Dream and what it means to build a career you actually love. Enjoy another episode of BG2!


Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(02:00) Two Years of BG2

(03:45) Bill Stepping Back to Write His Book

(06:00) Runnin' Down a Dream

(07:00) The AI CapEx Bubble?

(09:30) Sham vs. Real Transactions in AI

(11:00) Microsoft–OpenAI Credits & Cloud Economics

(13:00) Nvidia’s Investments: Healthy or Hype?

(17:00) CoreWeave, Hidden Leverage & Demand Risks

(19:15) $3 Trillion CapEx: Are We Overbuilding AI?

(21:45) The MAG5 CapEx Surge: Too Much, Too Fast?

(24:30) Meta’s CapEx Comeback & AI ROI

(25:30) OpenAI’s Race for Escape Velocity

(28:30) AI Regulation: State Patchwork Madness

(30:30) Why Federal Preemption Is Critical

(33:15) The Colorado & California AI Acts

(35:00) Stablecoin Surge: $18T in Settlements

(36:45) Gurley’s Crypto Conversion

(38:30) From PIX to FedNow: The Future of Digital Money

(41:00) Coinbase, Circle, and the 4% Yield Revolution

(43:00) Why Visa & Banks Fear Stablecoins

(45:00) Gurley: “I’m Jumping on the Crypto Train”

(46:00) Brad on Invest America (Trump Accounts)

(49:00) Implementation Timeline & Treasury Update

(50:30) Bill’s Book: Runnin' Down a Dream

(53:15) The Great Career Reset: Passion vs. Grind

(55:00) Bezos’ Regret Minimization Framework

(57:00) Who the Book Is For

(59:00) Gurley’s Next Mission


Show Notes:

All-In Summit: Bill Gurley presents 2,851 Miles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9cO3-MLHOM

Plain English: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/this-is-how-the-ai-bubble-could-burst/id1594471023?i=1000728026459

Bezos’ Regret Minimization Framework: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ

Produced by Dan Shevchuk

Music by Yung Spielberg

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com


Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

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Coatue’s Laffont Brothers. AI, Public & VC Mkts, Macro, US Debt, Crypto, IPO's, & more | BG2

Coatue’s Laffont Brothers. AI, Public & VC Mkts, Macro, US Debt, Crypto, IPO's, & more | BG2

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they welcome Coatue’s Thomas and Philippe Laffont to discuss the AI Super cycle, Stablecoin and crypto, consumer AI, NVIDIA GPU’s, Macroeconomics, publc markets, VC markets, M&A’s, insights for founders and CEO’s, and more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:36) The AI Super Cycle(07:47) Stablecoin & Cryptocurrency(16:19) Consumer AI & Impact on $GOOG(22:54) GPU Allocation v Cloud Revenue Market Share(28:56) AI Impact on Macro + Debt(35:20) Private Markets, IPO’s, M&A’s(45:59) Golden Age of Margin Expansion(51:48) Jevon’s Paradox(53:19) Insights for Founders and CEOsShow Notes:Coatue EMW 2025 SlidesProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcapBill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

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China, AI Immigration, Rare Earths & Chips, Tariffs, Market Check | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner

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Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they revisit arguments about free trade, and discuss updates on tariff negotiations, export controls, the new AI cold war, NVIDIA H20 chip ban, rare earth ban, DeepSeek, Tesla, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:15) Complex Systems(06:00) Tariff Negotiations & Free Trade(23:19) Export Controls: AI War, H20 & Rare Earth Ban(42:29) New AI Cold War & Zero Sum Game(52:37) $TSLA & Market CheckShow Notes:Financial Times - US rare earth champion faces trade war test after tariffs halt China salesCNBC - U.S. chip controls will benefit China’s Nvidia rivals like Huawei: AnalystsProject Syndicate - Trump’s $16 Trillion Trade Blind SpotNYTimes - I Just Saw the Future. It Was Not in America (Thomas L. Friedman)Ezra Klein Podcast feat. Thomas FriedmanJohn Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024Reuters - China hits back at US tariffs with export controls on key rare earthsNYTimes - Nvidia Says U.S. Will Restrict Sales of More of Its A.I. Chips to ChinaProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod

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Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss market uncertainty, globalism and tariffs, M&A, Wiz and GOOG, NVDA GTC, consumer AI demand, AI unit economics, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:20) Liberation Day & Tariffs(19:18) US Open Source vs China Open Source(34:34) OpenAI Fundraise(52:25) Coreweave IPO & AI Demand(01:04:03) Rumors on TikTok dealProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod

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Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss Grok 3, AI memory, voice, and evaluations, China, DOGE, the public market pullback, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:40) Grok 3(05:55) Grok’s Leverage of X Platform(07:25) AI Consumer Market & SEO(23:04) AI Memory(26:15) AI Voice(29:05) Future AI Assets(33:29) AI Acceleration in China(36:09) Regulatory Challenges(37:46) AI CapEx and Investing Dynamics(48:38) Government Spending + DOGE(1:00:51) Golden State WarriorsProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

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