Will Coral Reefs Be Gone by 2050? How Bleaching, Acidification, and Ocean Heating are Killing Coral Reefs with Ove Hoegh-Guldberg

Will Coral Reefs Be Gone by 2050? How Bleaching, Acidification, and Ocean Heating are Killing Coral Reefs with Ove Hoegh-Guldberg

Twenty-five years ago, a landmark paper warned that the world's coral reefs could vanish by 2050. Now, halfway to that projected date (and amid ever more frequent coral bleaching events), that grim prediction feels increasingly close to reality. What is the current state of Earth's coral reefs, and what would happen to our planetary home without them?

In this episode, Nate is joined by Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, the marine biologist who made this landmark prediction, for an update on the health of coral reefs and the primary ecological stressors driving their decline. Drawing on decades of research, he explains the mechanisms of coral bleaching, the critical biodiversity hotspots that reefs create, and the implications for human populations that depend on these ecosystems. Ove also touches on the emotional impact of witnessing the loss of reefs for the scientists who have dedicated their lives to studying them.

How are human actions increasingly putting pressure on the very ecosystems that support more than one billion people? What would happen to the broader health of the oceans if reefs were to disappear entirely? And most of all, what changes can both individuals and institutions make today to support the health of these vital ecosystems – and in-turn, the well-being of the entire Earth?

(Conversation recorded on August 6th, 2025)

About Ove Hoegh-Guldberg:

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg is Professor of Marine Studies at the University of Queensland in Brisbane, Australia, as well as the Deputy Director of the Centre for Excellence in Coral Reef Studies. Over the past 10 years, he was also the Founding Director of the Global Change Institute. In addition to this work, Ove conceived and led the scientific XL-Catlin Seaview Survey which has surveyed over 1000 km of coral reefs across 25 countries and captured and analysed over 1 million survey images of coral reefs.

Ove's research focuses on the impacts of global change on marine ecosystems, and he is one of the most cited authors on climate change. He has also been a dedicated communicator of the threat posed by ocean warming and acidification to marine ecosystems, being one of the first scientists to identify the serious threat posed by climate change for coral reefs in a landmark paper published in 1999, which predicted the loss of coral reefs by 2050.

Show Notes and More

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Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Bend Not Break Part 5: Criteria and Categories for Response" | The Great Simplification #50

Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Bend Not Break Part 5: Criteria and Categories for Response" | The Great Simplification #50

Show Summary: On this 5th and final installment of the Bend Not Break series with Daniel Schmachtenberger, we unpack the framework and mindset needed to begin thinking about responses. This conversation touches on what it means to work on personal development in the light of a polycrisis, and how it is truly a never ending but necessary challenge. Finally, Daniel and Nate break down a 3x3 grid on time frame and category of responses. Whilst this is the end of this series, there is, of course, much left to be unpacked. If there are any specific topics you want covered in a follow up Daniel/Nate conversation, we encourage you to leave your questions in the comments of the Youtube video, which can be found here -> https://youtu.be/Kep8Fi_rUUI About Daniel Schmachtenberger: Daniel Schmachtenberger is a founding member of The Consilience Project, aimed at improving public sensemaking and dialogue. The throughline of his interests has to do with ways of improving the health and development of individuals and society, with a virtuous relationship between the two as a goal. Towards these ends, he's had particular interest in the topics of catastrophic and existential risk, civilization and institutional decay and collapse as well as progress, collective action problems, social organization theories, and the relevant domains in philosophy and science. For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/50-daniel-schmachtenberger To watch this video episode on Youtube → https://youtu.be/Kep8Fi_rUUI

19 Dec 20222h 20min

Staying Warm Data with Nora Bateson | Frankly #20

Staying Warm Data with Nora Bateson | Frankly #20

Winter has come - and for some people it's colder and more expensive than the recent past. This week Nate reconnects with Nora Bateson to discuss how she and others living in Sweden are responding to the phenomenal spike in their electricity costs, which are currently 35-40x higher than this time last year. What steps are people taking in their own homes to stay warm and reduce energy use, and what tools and support is the government providing its citizens? Is there any single event or person to blame for the drastic increase in energy costs or is the root cause broad and deep within the systems we have created? What can we learn from this dress rehearsal as we anticipate and prepare for The Great Simplification? For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/20-keeping-warm-data To Watch on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WK-WYZ9bOg

16 Dec 202228min

Simon Michaux: "The Arcadians"

Simon Michaux: "The Arcadians"

On this episode, mining and geology expert Simon Michaux returns to give a preliminary framework for responses to the coming energy and material constraints described in the previous episode. This includes both practical thoughts for how to organize communities around resources and also a shift in mindset from short term to long-term and from competition to cooperation. How do we simultaneously lay out all of the biophysical constraints on the table so that we can begin preparing for and adapting to a changing future? About Simon Michaux Dr. Simon Michaux is an Associate Professor of Geometallurgy at the Geological Survey of Finland. He has a PhD in mining engineering. Dr. Michaux's long-term work is on societal transformation toward a circular economy. Show Notes & Links to Learn More

14 Dec 20221h 23min

Tomas Björkman: "The Great Transformation - Metamodernism and The Future"

Tomas Björkman: "The Great Transformation - Metamodernism and The Future"

On this episode, author and social entrepreneur Tomas Björkman joins Nate to discuss his recent projects promoting inner development based on his books The Nordic Secret and The World We Create. Tomas unpacks the philosophical framework of 'metamodernism' and ultimately why having more mindful, engaged, global citizens is so critical to our coming challenges. How can we as individuals contribute to a more positive transition by becoming more thoughtful and resilient? About Tomas Björkman: After many years in business as an entrepreneur and investment banker, Tomas Björkman is now a social entrepreneur and the founder of Ekskäret Foundation in Stockholm. He is also the co-founder of the research institute Perspectiva in London, the Co-creation Loft, the media platform Emerge in Berlin, the 29k.org personal development platform, and the Inner Development Goals (IDGs) framework. He is a member of the Club of Rome and a fellow of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Science. He is the author of three books: The Market Myth (2016), The Nordic Secret (together with Lene Rachel Andersen, 2017) and The World We Create (2019). He divides his time between London, Stockholm and Berlin. For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/48-tomas-bjorkman

7 Dec 20221h 32min

"Islands" | Frankly #19

"Islands" | Frankly #19

There are some pretty amazing things that can be tracked via analytics on Youtube and other podcast servers - including from where the people tuning into a podcast are watching. For whatever reason, there is a large number of people listening to The Great Simplification from the island countries of Australia and New Zealand - much larger than the population alone would predict. In this Frankly, Nate reflects on why this might be, and what it means to be on an island (geographic or other) during a massive cultural transition. For Show Notes and More visit:https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/19-islands Video version can be found here: https://youtu.be/oDjxnmZVcNM

2 Dec 202210min

Patrick Ophuls: "Energy, Politics, and The Future"

Patrick Ophuls: "Energy, Politics, and The Future"

Today, ecologist, political scientist, and author Patrick Ophuls joins Nate to discuss his new book, The Tragedy of Industrial Civilization and The Future of Politics. As he's been doing for his lifetime of scholarship, Patrick unpacks how energy, ecology and our political arrangements leave us in a predicament with no simple solutions. Before we can even begin to plan for the future, we need to understand the enormity of the biophysical challenges we will have to face - Patrick Ophuls helps us do just that. About Patrick Ophuls: Dr. Patrick Ophuls (who writes under the pen name William Ophuls) is an American political scientist, ecologist, independent scholar, and author. Patrick has a PhD in political science from Yale University and has been a prominent voice in the environmental movement since the 1970s. His award winning book in 1977 is on the bookshelves of most people I know. He has written 10 books including 'Ecology and the Politics of Scarcity', 'Plato's Revenge', 'Politics in the Age of Ecology', and 'Immoderate Greatness: Why Civilizations Fail'. For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/47-patrick-ophuls

30 Nov 20221h 9min

Energy Gratitude | Frankly #18

Energy Gratitude | Frankly #18

This week, most of the United States celebrates Thanksgiving. As we think about the things we are grateful for - family, food, football, dogs etc. - we don't often remember to recognize energy's role in enabling all this. . In this brief video, Nate reflects on all the things which abundant and cheap energy provide for us, especially in the United States, that we often take for granted. The opposite of energy blindness might be 'energy gratitude', so being more aware of all the magic we are surrounded by everyday is perhaps a first step in conserving it and planning for a less energy intensive future. For Show Notes and more visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/18-energy-gratitude To Watch on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0rUEU-0YlPk

24 Nov 20226min

Vandana Shiva: "Agroecology and The Great Simplification"

Vandana Shiva: "Agroecology and The Great Simplification"

Today, ecology activist and regenerative agriculture advocate Vandana Shiva joins me to discuss how her lifetime of work has shaped the way she sees the world. From chaining herself to trees to winning against powerful agriculture giants like Monsanto, Vandana shares the many lessons she's learned in fighting for food systems that are better for the Earth and better for humans. Can we shift away from fossil input intensive agriculture that produces commodities lacking in full nutrients towards one with more labor, more community and more nutritious food? About Vandana Shiva: Vandana Shiva is a well known activist, author of many books, and is a global champion on regenerative local agriculture, biodiversity and nutritious food. She has a PhD in physics and 40 years ago founded the Research Foundation for Science, Technology and Ecology, an independent research institute that works on the most significant ecological problems of our times. For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/46-vandana-shiva

23 Nov 20221h 10min

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