Treasury Modelling Secrets: Macro Forecasts, Tax Policy & CGE/OLG Models

Treasury Modelling Secrets: Macro Forecasts, Tax Policy & CGE/OLG Models

Discover the complex economic models shaping fiscal advice at The Treasury. This review explores the critical recommendation to move away from the current 3-phase forecasting approach and embed a new, high-priority macro-econometric model for projections that must span greatly varying time horizons, from two up to 41 years. We analyze the crucial roadmap for the Revenue Group, focusing on upgrading its capability to use the detailed CGETAX model for analyzing tax policy impacts (covering up to twelve categories of tax). Learn why linking this CGE analysis with microsimulation models like CAPITA and PRISMOD.DIST is recommended for consistency in assessing both economic efficiency and household equity impacts. Finally, find out why Overlapping Generations (OLG) models are a medium priority for the Fiscal Group, as they are crucial tools for scenario analysis concerning intergenerational issues like retirement incomes and public debt policies.

Avsnitt(61)

Economics of Housing Supply: Concepts and Issues

Economics of Housing Supply: Concepts and Issues

In this episode, we dive into the nuanced economics of housing supply, challenging the common narrative that more new construction alone can solve housing affordability. Drawing on recent academic res...

16 Maj 202523min

Time Series Analysis Basics and Decomposition

Time Series Analysis Basics and Decomposition

In this episode, we explore the fundamentals of time series analysis with insights from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Learn the difference between stock and flow series, and how data collected ...

15 Maj 202518min

A Guide to Cost-Benefit Analysis

A Guide to Cost-Benefit Analysis

In this episode, we dive into the Australian Government's latest guidance from the Office of Impact Analysis (OIA) on using cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to shape smarter, more accountable policy decisi...

15 Maj 202518min

Navigating Global Uncertainty: Economic Insights from the Westpac May 2025 Report

Navigating Global Uncertainty: Economic Insights from the Westpac May 2025 Report

In this episode, we dive into Westpac's latest analysis of global and Australian economic trends as of May 2025. We unpack the impact of US tariff policies, global market volatility, and the varied ec...

14 Maj 202513min

Housing Finance on the Slide: Q1 2025 Lending Trends in Australia

Housing Finance on the Slide: Q1 2025 Lending Trends in Australia

In this episode, we unpack the key insights from the Australian Dwelling Finance Bulletin for Q1 2025, which reveals the first major drop in dwelling finance approvals in two years. We explore the sha...

14 Maj 202511min

Tariffs, Turbulence, and Trends: April 2025 Economic Insights

Tariffs, Turbulence, and Trends: April 2025 Economic Insights

In this episode, we break down the April 2025 economic report from the New South Wales Treasury Corporation, focusing on the ripple effects of U.S. trade policies across global and Australian markets....

13 Maj 202514min

Forecasting Jobs: How Leading Indicators Predict Unemployment"

Forecasting Jobs: How Leading Indicators Predict Unemployment"

In this episode, we explore new research on how leading labor market indicators—like job advertisements, vacancies, and consumer unemployment expectations—can improve forecasts of the unemployment rat...

13 Maj 202514min

Crypto vs. Central Bank Digital Currencies: Digital Money and the Future of Finance

Crypto vs. Central Bank Digital Currencies: Digital Money and the Future of Finance

In this episode, we unpack the key differences between cryptocurrencies and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). You'll learn how cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin operate on decentralized blockchains...

13 Maj 202518min

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