Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Nicholas Bloom is a professor of economics at Stanford University and a leading scholar on management, productivity, innovation and economic uncertainty. Nick is a previous guest of Macro Musings and returns to share his thoughts on COVID-19 and what it means for the US economy, both in the short-run and in the long-run. David and Nick also discuss the impact of the virus on the future of urban living, on the economics profession as a whole, and who will bear the biggest brunt of these impacts.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Nick’s NBER archive: https://www.nber.org/people/nick_bloom Nick’s Stanford profile: https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/faculty/nicholas-bloom   Related Links:   Bonus segment with Nick: https://youtu.be/q2M0TLwV_Xw   *COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty* by Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, and Stephen J. Terry. https://www.nber.org/papers/w26983   *U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak* by Daniel J. Lewis, Karel Mertens, and Jim Stock. https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr920   *Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?* by Ulrike Malmendier and Stefan Nagel. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1369049   *Managing with Style* by Marianne Bertrand and Antoinette Schoar. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=376880   *Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?* by Nicholas Bloom, Charles I. Jones, John Van Reenen, and Michael Webb. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3039019   *Does Working from Home Work? Evidence from a Chinese Experiment* by Nicholas A. Bloom, James Liang, John Roberts, Zhichun Jenny Ying https://nbloom.people.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj4746/f/wfh.pdf   *How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home?* by Jonathan I. Dingel and Brent Neiman. https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_White-Paper_Dingel_Neiman_3.2020.pdf   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

20 Apr 202053min

Brad Setser is a senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he works on macroeconomics, global capital flows, and financial crisis issues. Brad has previously served as the deputy assistant secretary at the U.S. Treasury, working on Europe’s financial crisis, currency policy, financial sanctions, commodity shocks, and Puerto Rico’s debt crisis, and was the director for international economics on the staff of the National Economic Council and the National Security Council. As a returning guest to the show, Brad joins Macro Musings once again to discuss dollars swap lines and other solutions to the global dollar shortage, the recent implications of COVID-19 on global trade imbalances, and how China should respond to the effects of this crisis.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Brad’s Twitter: @Brad_Setser Brad’s CFR profile: https://www.cfr.org/expert/brad-w-setser   Related Links:   Bonus segment with Brad Setser: https://youtu.be/YsdynQgWHFg   *Addressing the Global Dollar Shortage: More Swap Lines? A New Repo Facility for Central Banks? More IMF Lending?* by Brad Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/addressing-global-dollar-shortage-more-swap-lines-new-fed-repo-facility-central-banks-more-imf   *Why the Dollar Crunch is (mostly) a Rich World Problem* by Claire Jones https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/03/24/1585041854000/Why-the-dollar-crunch-is--mostly--a-rich-world-problem/   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

15 Apr 202049min

Alex Tabarrok is a professor of economics at George Mason University and a research fellow at the Mercatus Center. Alex joins David Beckworth on the podcast to discuss how best to deal with COVID-19 and what lessons we can learn from it moving forward.     Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Alex’s Twitter: @ATabarrok Alex’s GMU profile: https://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/   Related Links:   Bonus segment with Tabarrok: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQUnnumgXvw&feature=youtu.be   *Pandemic Policy in Developing Countries: Recommendations for India* by Shruti Rajagopalan and Alex Tabarrok https://www.mercatus.org/publications/covid-19-policy-brief-series/pandemic-policy-developing-countries-recommendations-india   Chad Brown’s PIIE archive, which include a series of articles related to COVID-19 and its impact on trade: https://www.piie.com/experts/senior-research-staff/chad-p-bown   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

13 Apr 202054min

Ashoka Mody is a professor of international economic policy at Princeton University, has formerly worked at the IMF and the World Bank, and is a returning guest to Macro Musings. In this episode, he joins David to discuss the global economic implications of COVID-19 and what it specifically means for Europe and the Eurozone.   Transcript for the episode.   Ashoka’s Twitter: @AshokaMody Ashoka’s Princeton profile: https://scholar.princeton.edu/amody/home   Related Links:   Cover of Ashoka's new paperback book: https://i.imgur.com/1IYWBAk.jpg   Bonus segment with Ashoka Mody: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZsAetHdzjA&feature=youtu.be   *Charting the Crisis* by Ashoka Mody http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/03/guest-contribution-charting-this-crisis   *Euro Tragedy: A Drama in Nine Acts* by Ashoka Mody https://global.oup.com/academic/product/eurotragedy-9780199351381?cc=us&lang=en&   *Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008* by Alan Taylor and Moritz Schularick https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.102.2.1029   *European Monetary Unification* by Barry Eichengreen https://www.jstor.org/stable/2728243?seq=1   *Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu* by Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

8 Apr 202055min

Peter Conti-Brown – a legal scholar and financial historian at the University of Pennsylvania, as well as a Nonresident Fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution – returns to Macro Musings to discuss the new Fed-Treasury relationship that is emerging in the wake of the war against COVID-19. Peter and David breakdown the CARES Act, the aggressive and extensive policies recently taken by the Fed, and the implications for monetary policy moving forward.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Peter’s Twitter: @PeterContiBrown Peter’s Brookings profile: https://www.brookings.edu/author/peter-conti-brown/ Peter’s Wharton profile: https://lgst.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/petercb/   Related Links:   *Explaining the New Fed-Treasury Emergency Fund* by Peter Conti-Brown https://www.brookings.edu/research/explaining-the-new-fed-treasury-emergency-fund/   *What’s the Fed Doing in Response to the COVID-19 Crisis? What More Could it Do?* by Jeffrey Cheng, Dave Skidmore, and David Wessel https://www.brookings.edu/research/fed-response-to-covid19/   *The Foreign Affairs of the Federal Reserve* by Peter Conti-Brown and David Zaring https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3169870   *Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics* by Oscar Jorda, Sanjay Singh, and Alan Taylor https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2020-09.pdf   Bonus segment featuring Peter Conti-Brown: https://youtu.be/GJF2RlQ8po4   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

6 Apr 20201h 1min

Skanda Amarnath is the Director of Research and Analysis at Employ America, Yakov Feygin is the Associate Director of the Future of Capitalism program at the Berggruen Institute, and Elizabeth Pancotti is a research assistant at the National Bureau of Economic Research and at Tufts University. Together, they have put together proposals on how to better address the challenges of the COVID-19 crisis at the state and local level. They join Macro Musings today to discuss these proposals, a municipal bond market and expanded unemployment insurance, as well as what it all means for making the US economy more of an optimal currency area.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Skanda’s Twitter: @IrvingSwisher Skanda’s Medium profile: https://medium.com/@skanda_97974   Yakov’s Twitter: @BuddyYakov Yakov’s Berggruen Institute profile: https://www.berggruen.org/people/yakov-feygin/   Elizabeth’s Twitter: @ENPancotti Elizabeth’s website: https://sites.google.com/view/elizabethpancotti/home   Related Links:   *The Fed Can and Should Support State Government Efforts to Respond to COVID-19 Right Now* by Skanda Amarnath and Yakov Feygin https://medium.com/@skanda_97974/the-fed-can-and-should-support-state-government-efforts-to-respond-to-covid-19-right-now-5e5ecf7b7ed8   *Unemployment Benefit Expansions: A Guide for Policy Responses in the Wake of COVID-19* by Elizabether Pancotti https://medium.com/@employamerica/unemployment-benefit-expansions-a-guide-for-policy-responses-in-the-wake-of-covid-19-ec3da6e8701   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

1 Apr 202055min

Jim Bianco, of Bianco Research, joins Macro Musings to discuss the latest on the economic impact from the coronavirus. David and Jim discuss the details and implications of the $2 Trillion Relief bill, the possibility of higher inflation, renewed threats to Fed independence, and implications for the Eurozone.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Jim’s Twitter: @biancoresearch Jim’s Bloomberg archive: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/authors/ABvwE0aTOvg/jim-bianco   Related Links: *The Fed's Cure Risks Being Worse Than the Disease* by Jim Bianco https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-27/federal-reserve-s-financial-cure-risks-being-worse-than-disease   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

30 Mars 20201h 1min

Robin Brooks is a chief economist at the Institute of International Finance and has previously worked for Goldman Sachs and the IMF. Robin joins Macro Musings to talk about the global economic implications of the novel coronavirus. David and Robin also discuss what is happening to output gap measures, where the global dollar cycle stands today, and the importance of dollar swap lines for emerging markets.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Robin’s Twitter: @RobinBrooksIIF Robin’s IIF profile: https://www.iif.com/About-Us/Our-Leadership   Related Links:   *Federal Reserve Announces Extensive New Measures to Support the Economy* https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200323b.htm   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

25 Mars 202053min