Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Robert Samuelson is an economics columnist for the Washington Post and spent several decades working at Newsweek, where he wrote on various economic topics. Robert is the author of several books, including *The Good Life and Its Discontents: The American Dream in the Age of Entitlement* and *The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath: The Past and Future of American Affluence*. He joins the show today to talk about the latter and its implications for today. David and Robert go in-depth about the Great Inflation, as they discuss the disagreement within macroeconomics during the 60s and 70s, the history and significance of the period, and how Ronald Reagan and Paul Volcker sought to end the inflation.   Tributes to Paul Volcker:   *Remembering Paul Volcker, The Man Who Tamed Inflation* by Scott Sumner https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/473963-remembering-paul-volcker-the-man-who-tamed-inflation   *Paul Volcker’s Legacy* by Scott Sumner https://www.econlib.org/paul-volckers-legacy/   *How Paul Volcker Beat Inflation and Saved an Independent Fed* by Roger Lowenstein https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/how-paul-volcker-beat-inflation-and-saved-an-independent-fed/2019/12/10/7e58d7ae-1b64-11ea-87f7-f2e91143c60d_story.html   *Paul Volcker Was Inflation’s Worst Enemy* by John Taylor https://www.wsj.com/articles/paul-volcker-was-inflations-worst-enemy-11575937617   *Paul A. Volcker, Fed Chairman Who Waged War on Inflation, Is Dead at 92* by Binyamin Appelbaum and Robert D. Hershey Jr. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/09/business/paul-a-volcker-dead.html   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/12112019/robert-samuelson-paul-volcker-and-great-inflation   Robert’s Washington Post profile & bio: https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/robert-j-samuelson/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6e300b47761d   Related Links:   *The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath: The Past and Future of American Affluence* by Robert J. Samuelson https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/160295/the-great-inflation-and-its-aftermath-by-robert-j-samuelson/9780812980042/   *The Good Life and Its Discontents: The American Dream in the Age of Entitlement* by Robert J. Samuelson https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/160294/the-good-life-and-its-discontents-by-robert-samuelson/9780679781523/   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

11 Dec 201957min

Jim Bianco is the president of Bianco Research, a provider of data-driven insights into the global economy and financial markets, and is also a columnist for Bloomberg. Jim has 30-plus years of experience on Wall Street, and he joins the show today to talk about Fed policy, negative interest rates, and inflation. David and Jim also discuss the possibility of extending the yield curve, the Fed’s recent forays into the repo market, and what low interest rates mean for the economy moving forward.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/12092019/jim-bianco-negative-interest-rates-low-inflation-and-yield-curve-expansion   Jim’s Twitter: @biancoresearch Jim’s Bloomberg profile: https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/ABvwE0aTOvg/jim-bianco   Related Links:   *A History of Interest Rates* by Dick Sylla and Sidney Homer https://www.wiley.com/en-us/A+History+of+Interest+Rates%2C+4th+Edition-p-9780471732839   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

9 Dec 201959min

Claudia Sahm is the director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, and was formerly at the Board of Governors as a section chief in the Consumer Community Affairs Division as well as serving on the staff macro forecast. Claudia specializes in macroeconomics and household finance, and she joins the show today to talk about some of her work. David and Claudia also discuss her experience working at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the conception of the Sahm Rule, and the importance of big data for economic research and policymaking.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/12022019/claudia-sahm-sahm-rule-and-using-big-data-inform-policymaking   Claudia’s Twitter: @Claudia_Sahm Claudia’s Equitable Growth profile: https://equitablegrowth.org/people/claudia-sahm/   Related Links:   *Recession Ready: Fiscal Policies to Stabilize the American Economy* by the Brookings Institution https://www.brookings.edu/multi-chapter-report/recession-ready-fiscal-policies-to-stabilize-the-american-economy/   *Direct Stimulus Payments to Individuals* by Claudia Sahm https://www.brookings.edu/research/direct-stimulus-payments-to-individuals/   *Are We in a Recession? Experts Agree: Ask Claudia Sahm* by Kate Davidson https://www.wsj.com/articles/are-we-in-a-recession-experts-agree-ask-claudia-sahm-11572789602   *From Transactions Data to Economic Statistics: Constructing Real-Time, High-Frequency, Geographic Measures of Consumer Spending* by Aditya Aladangady, Shifrah Aron-Dine, Wendy Dunn, Laura Feiveson, Paul Lengermann, and Claudia Sahm https://www.nber.org/chapters/c14267   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

2 Dec 201957min

Carola Binder is an assistant professor of economics at Haverford College and is an associate editor of the Journal of Money, Credit, and Central Banking. Carola is also a member of the CEPR Research and Policy Network on Central Bank Communication, and joins the show today to discuss her work on central banking and populism. David and Carola also discuss the link between central bank credibility and popularity, the twin deficits of central banking, and why NGDP targeting could be an easy transition point from current inflation targeting regimes.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/11252019/carola-binder-political-pressure-and-twin-deficits-central-banking   Carola’s Twitter: @cconces Carola’s blog: https://carolabinder.blogspot.com/   Related Links:   *Political Pressure on Central Banks* by Carola Binder https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3244148   *Whose Expectations Augment the Phillips Curve?* by Carola Binder https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2789750   *Federal Reserve Communication and the Media* by Carola Binder https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2835574   *Comment on “Central Bank Accouncements: Big News for Little People” by Michael Lalma and Dmitri Vinogradov* by Carola Binder https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304393219301461   *We Asked Fed Watchers to Rate the Fed’s Communications – Here’s What We Found* by Peter Olson and David Wessel https://www.brookings.edu/research/we-asked-fed-watchers-to-rate-the-feds-communications/   *The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target* by Kenneth Rogoff https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/51_qje85.pdf   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

25 Nov 201955min

Binyamin Appelbaum is the lead writer on business and economics for the editorial board of The New York Times, and he was previously a Washington correspondent for The Times covering the Federal Reserve and other aspects of economic policy. Binyamin is also a returning guest to the show, and joins today to talk about his new book, *The Economists’ Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets, and the Fracture of Society*. David and Binyamin also discuss Milton Friedman’s influence on economic thought during the postwar era, the history of the emergence of supply side economics, and the consequences that have arisen from committing too strongly to free market principles.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/11182019/binyamin-appelbaum-economists%E2%80%99-hour-false-prophets-free-markets-and   Binyamin’s Twitter: @BCAppelbaum Binyamin’s New York Times profile: https://www.nytimes.com/by/binyamin-appelbaum   Related Links:   *The Economists’ Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets, and the Fracture of Society* by Binyamin Appelbaum https://www.littlebrown.com/titles/binyamin-appelbaum/the-economists-hour/9780316512329/   *Secrets of the Temple: How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country* by William Greider https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Secrets-of-the-Temple/William-Greider/9780671675561   *More from Less: The Surprising Story of How We Learned to Prosper Using Fewer Resources - and What Happens Next* by Andrew McAfee https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/More-from-Less/Andrew-McAfee/9781982103576   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

18 Nov 201958min

George Selgin is the director of the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives and is a returning guest to the Macro Musings podcast. Today, George joins the show to talk about recent developments in the payment system. Specifically, George and David discuss the history of attempted payment system solutions, the challenges and costs facing the implementation of a real-time payment system, and why we should care about this issue today.      Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/11112019/george-selgin-past-present-and-future-real-time-payments-system   George’s Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George’s Cato Institute profile: https://www.cato.org/people/george-selgin   Related Links:   *Federal Reserve Announces Plan to Develop a New Round-the-clock Real-time Payment and Settlement Service to Support Faster Payments* - Federal Reserve press release https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20190805a.htm   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

11 Nov 201956min

Henry Curr is the economics editor for The Economist magazine, and the author of a special report by the magazine on the phenomenon of low inflation now facing the global economy. Henry joins the show today to outline this report and the big questions surrounding low inflation. David and Curr also discuss the persistent low inflation of the present around the globe, why the Phillips Curve has broken down as a policy tool, and how technology may be causing inflation to miss its target set by central banks.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/11042019/henry-curr-inflation-phillips-curve-and-new-monetarism   Henry’s Twitter: @Henry_Curr Henry’s Economist profile: https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/henry-curr/   Related Links:   *Inflation is Losing its Meaning as an Economic Indicator* A Special Report by Henry Curr (note that this link includes many of the various pieces discussed during the episode) https://www.economist.com/special-report/2019/10/10/inflation-is-losing-its-meaning-as-an-economic-indicator   *Alexa, How Much is it? Technology is Making Inflation Statistics an Unreliable Guide to the Economy* by Henry Curr https://www.economist.com/special-report/2019/10/10/technology-is-making-inflation-statistics-an-unreliable-guide-to-the-economy   *Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers, and Policies* Edited by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/publication/inflation-in-emerging-and-developing-economies   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

4 Nov 20191h 3min

Diego Zuluaga is a policy analyst at the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives where he covers financial technology and consumer credit, and before joining Cato, Diego was head of financial services and tech policy at the Institute of Economic Affairs in London. He joins the show today to talk about his work within this policy area. David and Diego also discuss the future of cryptocurrencies, the fragmented nature of the US banking system, and the growing importance of fintech in our daily lives.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/10282019/diego-zuluaga-libra-real-time-payments-and-legacy-community-reinvestment   Diego’s Twitter: @DiegoZuluagaL Diego’s Cato Institute profile: https://www.cato.org/people/diego-zuluaga   Related Links:   *New York’s Bank: The National Monetary Commission and the Founding of the Fed* by George Selgin https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/new-yorks-bank-national-monetary-commission-founding-fed   *Fintech, Regulatory Arbitrage, and the Rise of Shadow Banks* by Greg Buchak, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski, and Amit Seru https://www.nber.org/papers/w23288   *Of Libras and Zebras, Part One: What Are the True Financial Risks of the Facebook-Led Digital Currency? (Systemic Risk)* by Diego Zuluaga https://www.alt-m.org/2019/07/11/of-libras-and-zebras-part-one/   *Of Libras and Zebras, Part Two: What Are the True Financial Risks of the Facebook-Led Digital Currency? (Monopoly Risk)* by Diego Zuluaga https://www.alt-m.org/2019/07/16/of-libras-and-zebras-part-two/   *Of Libras and Zebras: What Are the True Financial Risks of the Facebook-Led Digital Curency? (Part III: National Security Risk)* by Diego Zuluaga https://www.cato.org/blog/libras-zebras-what-are-true-financial-risks-facebook-led-digital-currency-part-iii-national   *The Community Reinvestment Act in the Age of Fintech and Bank Competition* by Diego Zuluaga https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/community-reinvestment-act-age-fintech-bank-competition   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

28 Okt 201959min