![[Linkpost] “Evidence that Recent AI Gains are Mostly from Inference-Scaling” by Toby_Ord](https://cdn.podme.com/podcast-images/E49A75B9B5FE30D58408D946D761A6BB_small.jpg)
[Linkpost] “Evidence that Recent AI Gains are Mostly from Inference-Scaling” by Toby_Ord
This is a link post. In the last year or two, the most important trend in modern AI came to an end. The scaling-up of computational resources used to train ever-larger AI models through next-token pre...
2 Feb 10min
[Linkpost] “The Extreme Inefficiency of RL for Frontier Models” by Toby_Ord
This is a link post. The new scaling paradigm for AI reduces the amount of information a model can learn from per hour of training by a factor of 1,000 to 1,000,000. I explore what this means and its ...
2 Feb 14min
[Linkpost] “Inference Scaling Reshapes AI Governance” by Toby_Ord
This is a link post. The shift from scaling up the pre-training compute of AI systems to scaling up their inference compute may have profound effects on AI governance. The nature of these effects depe...
2 Feb 34min
[Linkpost] “Is there a Half-Life for the Success Rates of AI Agents?” by Toby_Ord
This is a link post. Building on the recent empirical work of Kwa et al. (2025), I show that within their suite of research-engineering tasks the performance of AI agents on longer-duration tasks can ...
2 Feb 19min
[Linkpost] “Inference Scaling and the Log-x Chart” by Toby_Ord
This is a link post. Improving model performance by scaling up inference compute is the next big thing in frontier AI. But the charts being used to trumpet this new paradigm can be misleading. While t...
2 Feb 16min
[Linkpost] “The Scaling Paradox” by Toby_Ord
This is a link post. AI capabilities have improved remarkably quickly, fuelled by the explosive scale-up of resources being used to train the leading models. But if you examine the scaling laws that i...
30 Jan 16min
“Why Isn’t EA at the Table When $121 Billion Gets Allocated to Biodiversity Every Year?” by David Goodman
There is an insane amount of money being thrown around by international organizations and agreements. Nobody with any kind of power over these agreements is asking basic EA questions like: "What are t...
29 Jan 9min
“If EA ruled the world, career advisors would tell some people to work for the postal service” by Toby Tremlett🔹
EA thinking is thinking on the margin. When EAs prioritise causes, they are prioritising causes given the fact that they only control their one career, or, sometimes, given that they have some influen...
29 Jan 1min
