Top Traders Unplugged

Today I'm joined by Mark Rzepczynsky following the quarterly meeting of the TBAC in a week where the FED also raised interest rates. We discuss the concept of inertia and how it can be applied to economics and markets, why it is important to have macro awareness whilst being concious of the level of complexity to ensure your model remains robust. We also discuss the idea of "warner vs. warnee" in a crisis situation and how it can cause inefficiency and dislocations in markets, how to respond to economic warnings, the importance of capturing non-linearity in markets and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:55 - A big week for Chairman Powell?10:59 - Industry performance update14:07 - Global macro meets trend following?19:52 - The spectrum of behaviour25:47 - Balancing complexity and robustness30:51 - Being aware of unexpected events in markets34:31 - It takes two to crisis39:06 - Are we approaching a de-dollarization?41:56 - Is price all we need?50:55 - Why do we need machine learning?56:39 - Words of estimative probability01:00:35 - Put the money where your mouth is01:02:58 - Skew in trend following01:05:38 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in

6 Maj 20231h 8min

If you liked last week’s Global Macro conversation with Cem Karsan you are going to LOVE this epic Macro debate as he and Alfonso Peccatiello, aka MacroAlf, go head to head on the most pressing topics of our time. From inflation and interest rates to De-Dollarization, China, Geo-Politics, Oil, Gold, and more, these two brilliant macro thinkers challenge each other's perspectives in a thought-provoking and engaging conversation. Despite their differences, they also find some common ground. Don't miss this electrifying episode!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Alfonso on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:37 - The big macro picture04:37 - Inflation from a historical perspective14:22 - Cycles and trends - how are they different?18:23 - A sticky situation21:53 - A wealth of trades?26:58 - A secular reality29:17 - The banking situation35:16 - A build-up effect38:58 - Buying Puts - A way to lose money?41:02 - Cyclical vs Secular effects46:38 - Inflationary pressure in Japan54:45 - De-Dollarization and changes on the global stage01:08:14 - The advantage of commodities01:13:41 - Where is the world heading?01:17:57 - Final thoughtsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

3 Maj 20231h 19min

Alan Dunne returns to the show for a weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the current global macro environment and the challenges that markets are facing at the moment. We discuss how to approach the percentage allocation to Trend Following when reaching retirement age and the current drawdowns that we see in the trend space, how to use risk mitigation strategies to create a more robust portfolio and how pension funds might end up filling the entire trend following space. We also discuss how Alan would go about constructing an alternative investment portfolio, the outlook for trend following and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:32 - Broad macro observations10:21 - Consumer confidence and political obstacles14:44 - Looking towards China18:53 - Trend following update24:38 - Q1, Lawrence: What to do when approaching retirement drawdown?29:53 - Q2, Lawrence: How can smaller investors benefit from allocating to CTAs31:31 - A trend following rollercoaster36:33 - Using risk mitigation strategies45:52 - Risk mitigation in pension funds50:57 - How to build an Alternative Portfolio?01:00:06 - What does the future holds for trend following?01:04:51 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can...

28 Apr 20231h 6min

Join us for an enlightening conversation with Cem Karsan, where we dive deep into the state of the volatility markets and the risks that come with the current low volatility environment. We explore the lagging effects of FED actions and their impact on the markets, as well as the potential impact of inflation, the upcoming US election season, and the current US debt ceiling situation. Get ready for a thought-provoking discussion on the current state of the markets and the challenges facing investors today.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:08 - The big picture macro view08:27 - Fed selling Puts and Calls12:54 - The lag effect20:31 - The impact of change in demographics29:49 - The state of the markets - Recession inbound?38:47 - Sticky CPI - What is causing it?46:12 - Is the FED causing uneccesary downturn?49:41 - Are we looking at the right Asset Class?52:26 - Is the equity rally about to end?54:24 - The Unpinning of Volatility57:40 - The coming Explosion of Volatility01:01:44 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the...

26 Apr 20231h 3min

Join us for a compelling conversation with Nick Baltas on the topic of trend following, where we explore the rising appetite for institutions to buy-the-dip in fixed income markets and how the SVB event has impacted liquidity. Discover if you can time trend following by adding additional signals to your model, the academic sceptisism of timeseries momentum as a strategy and why trend following goes beyond volatility scaling. We also delve into the scientific versus practical approach to trend following, and compare narratives of different investment approaches and how we may have to come up with a better one for trend following. Don't miss out on this insightful episode!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:21 - Looking back on the week13:19 - Reflecting on the CTA series19:23 - The impact of the SVB event23:02 - Industry performance update24:39 - Q1, Tim: Regarding backtest and timing trends35:08 - Two Critical Views on Trend Following40:15 - Time-series momentum: Is it there?43:28 - Defending trend following54:01 - The Role of Volatility...and what it predicts57:06 - The trend following narrative01:06:05 - Paper from Aspect Capital01:09:34 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:<a...

23 Apr 20231h 11min

Get ready for a thought-provoking conversation with Stephen Roach, former Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley and current Senior Fellow at Yale’s Paul Tsai China Center, as he delves into the deteriorating relationship between China and the US. With his new book "Accidental Conflict: America, China and the Clash of False Narratives", Stephen unravels the narratives that led to this new Cold War and provides a clear path towards interdependency and healthier economies. With his unique perspective and ability to reach policy makers on both sides, Stephen gives us an insight into the complexity of this relationship and how it can be mended. Don't miss out on this insightful discussion.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Stephen on Twitter & Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:38 - Introduction to Stephen Roach 07:37 - Why are false narratives so prevalent? 12:52 - Stephen's favorite false narrative 17:07 - A dangerous narrative 22:02 - A political backstep? 28:00 - A lack of telecom infrastructure 29:58 - The false narratives of China 40:47...

19 Apr 20231h 1min

Guillaume Jamet, Co-CIO at Metori Capital Management joins us for a conversation on how pivoting to a rigorous scientific approach uncovered ways of better capturing trends in markets. We discuss his "alternative" view on Sharpe and why being a trend following CTA is not as easy as it might seem and how they break down conventional rules in markets to fix what is not working. We also uncover how Guillaume would approach manager selection if he was on the other side of the table and the pros and cons of trading alternative markets in China, how they make investors embrace trend following in their portfolio and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Metori Capital Management.Episode Timestamps:02:17 - Introduction to Metori Capital Management 04:08 - Their investment philosophy 09:47 - An alternative view on Sharpe 18:44 - Adding value to a trend following program 21:08 - Signal filtering and embedding correlations 24:46 - The better technique and right timeframe 27:35 - Selecting and changing parameters 30:18 - Their view on replication 32:50 - Advice on evaluating and selecting managers 35:48 - Benefiting from alternative markets 39:30 - The risk of alternative markets 41:29 - Looking beyond China 42:18 -...

17 Apr 20231h 4min

Join us for a riveting conversation with Andrew Beer, where we dive deep into the world of systematic trend following, CTA Replication, and much more. As we explore the current state of central banks, we uncover the challenges that come with investing during periods when yields rise. Andrew shares his insights on why the language used in portfolio management can be misleading and what happens when we can't rely on banks being safe. Then we get into what has been going on in the world of CTA Replication and why Andrew is surprised by the DrawDowns that his fund has experienced in recent months. Finally, we debunk false narratives surrounding hedge funds profiting from the food crisis caused by the war in Ukraine and discuss the demonization of capitalism. Don't miss out on this captivating episode!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:41 - What happened this week?11:46 - Industry performance update13:57 - Replication - reasons for concern?16:58 - Why the current drawdown exceeds that of the benchmark?23:51 - The challenge of making money when yields rise32:27 - Do Replication funds really out-perform over time?40:56 - The challenges of picking a single manager47:51 - Should you make changes to your model?53:29 - Gaurdian article on CTAs role in food crisis01:03:12 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're...

16 Apr 20231h 5min