SI379: The Illusion of Safety in a Fully Invested Market ft. Cem Karsan

SI379: The Illusion of Safety in a Fully Invested Market ft. Cem Karsan

Niels and Cem reflect on a year marked by concentration, confidence, and growing structural fragility beneath calm markets. They examine extreme positioning, record low cash levels, and the quiet dominance of reflexive flows over fundamentals. Cem challenges common readings of volatility, explains where real fear hides in options markets, and outlines why tail exposure becomes critical late in cycles. The discussion broadens into portfolio construction, questioning the legacy of 60/40 investing and the illusion of diversification built during falling-rate decades. Grounded in history, market structure, and political cycles, this conversation offers a disciplined framework for navigating regimes where leverage, policy, and inequality quietly redefine risk.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series

00:49 - Geopolitical tensions beneath the surface of markets

02:07 - Extreme bullish sentiment and record low cash levels

04:12 - Margin use, positioning, and why this setup is fragile

06:07 - Why the VIX fails as a true fear indicator

11:48 - Buffett’s concentration and risk management through quality

16:27 - Leverage, Sharpe ratios, and misunderstood diversification

21:02 - Trend following performance and late year positioning

23:48 - Positioning, reflexivity, and market microstructure

28:25 - Volatility traps and convexity before stress events

31:06...

Jaksot(900)

SI385: When Volatility Becomes the Signal ft. Katy Kaminski

SI385: When Volatility Becomes the Signal ft. Katy Kaminski

Katy Kaminski joins us to assess the early signals shaping markets in 2026. The conversation explores the resurgence of commodity trends, the role of volatility estimation, and why diversification acr...

31 Tammi 1h 4min

GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins

GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins

In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and F...

28 Tammi 1h 3min

SI384: Building an Inflation-Proof Portfolio ft. Yoav Git

SI384: Building an Inflation-Proof Portfolio ft. Yoav Git

In this episode, Niels hosts Yoav Git to explore inflation risk, bond fragility, and the changing role of trend following in a world defined by supply shocks and declining trust. Drawing on recent res...

24 Tammi 1h 1min

IL45: Where Markets Reveal Human Error ft. Alex Imas

IL45: Where Markets Reveal Human Error ft. Alex Imas

Today we discuss one of the most popular and influential economic books of the last few decades - The Winner’s Curse. Originally published in 1994, a new version has just been released and we are join...

21 Tammi 54min

SI383: When Signals Matter More Than Stories ft. Nick Baltas

SI383: When Signals Matter More Than Stories ft. Nick Baltas

Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas to examine how narratives, signals, and structural design are reshaping trend following at the start of 2026. The conversation moves from investor storytelling and ...

17 Tammi 59min

GM94: When Capitalism Reboots and Crashes Again ft. Mark Blyth

GM94: When Capitalism Reboots and Crashes Again ft. Mark Blyth

As the long era of neoliberal certainty frays, Mark Blyth argues that we are drifting back toward a 19th century world of rival blocs, imperial habits and dangerous illusions. In this conversation, he...

14 Tammi 1h 7min

SI382: The End of Globalization, the Rise of Trends ft. Richard Brennan

SI382: The End of Globalization, the Rise of Trends ft. Richard Brennan

The new year opens with a shift hiding in plain sight. As globalization recedes and the world fractures into spheres of influence, Rich argues this isn’t just a political story - it’s a structural shi...

10 Tammi 1h 8min

GM93: The Calm Before a Systemic Reckoning ft. William White

GM93: The Calm Before a Systemic Reckoning ft. William White

William White returns to assess a world edging closer to systemic stress. Drawing on decades advising central banks, he describes a macro regime defined not by temporary shocks, but by a deep reversal...

7 Tammi 1h 5min

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