221. LNG – Hormuz – “Apocalypse Now” - Mar26

Gerard and Laurent host Ira Joseph, a leading expert on gas and LNG markets at the Columbia Center on Global Energy, to explore how the Middle East conflict is reshaping the industry.

In normal times, LNG supply is led by Qatar, the U.S., and Australia, with prices anchored to benchmarks like Henry Hub, TTF, and JKM. Before the war, markets were relatively well supplied, keeping prices stable.

Three weeks into the conflict, that balance has shifted. Brent crude has climbed to about $110, European gas (TTF) to around $20/MMBtu, while U.S. Henry Hub remains near $3—highlighting growing regional divergence driven by infrastructure and trade flows.

Two views have emerged: the White House sees a temporary disruption, while analysts like Jeff Currie and James Gutman argue this is a structural supply shock—captured by the idea that “you can’t print molecules.”

The impact is uneven. Europe is highly exposed, Asia faces rising competition for cargoes, and emerging markets risk being priced out. The U.S. remains relatively insulated but increasingly vital as a supplier. Massive damage to key Gulf infrastructure such as South Pars and Ras Laffan will disrupt flows for months if not years.

In response, short-term measures include stock releases, more coal production and demand cuts. Longer term the crisis may spur new LNG investment, accelerate energy security efforts, and boost the development of renewables while further fragmenting global markets.

The takeaway: this is not just another cycle, but a structural shift in the future of energy.

References
HC Group podcasts with Paul Chapman
https://open.spotify.com/episode/4FelokgY7oWXMxwyv75N0D?si=SgGNX7S_RZuFnry5Ckdi_Q
https://open.spotify.com/episode/6bOCstN1chwOmB16u5SvRU?si=mu9PEjU9QQqvSHSmXlTafg

On LNG. Ira Joseph papers
https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/
https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/us-israeli-attacks-on-iran-and-global-energy-impacts/