TTU152: Where is the Open? ft. Toby Crabel

Markets are not stable systems. They evolve, adapt, and quietly erode the edges traders rely on. In this episode, Toby Crabel reflects on decades of experience navigating that reality, from the early days of Opening Range Breakout strategies to today’s fragmented and highly competitive landscape. He explains why momentum behaves differently now, how liquidity has shifted across sessions, and why execution has become a defining edge. The conversation also explores the limits of AI, the persistence of technical principles, and the importance of adapting without overfitting. At its core, this is a discussion about humility, uncertainty, and staying relevant as markets change.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Find out more about DUNN Capital

Follow Crabel Capital Management on LinkedIn.

Episode Timestamps:

00:00 - Markets are probabilistic and inherently uncertain

01:40 - Introduction to Toby Crabel and his career

03:01 - From tennis to trading and early market exposure

06:10 - Opening range breakout and early momentum edge

08:04 - Why momentum strategies have deteriorated over time

14:21 - The disappearance of the “open” in modern markets

17:53 - Are markets changing or just the participants

20:34 - Liquidity events and large player behavior

24:14 - The role and limits of technical analysis

32:44 - Model decay and adapting systematic strategies

39:17 - Execution as a primary source of edge

40:40 - AI, automation, and the future of trading

51:18 - Effort vs result and the meaning of volume

56:56 - Are we entering a 1970s style macro regime?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

Tämä jakso on lisätty Podme-palveluun avoimen RSS-syötteen kautta eikä se ole Podmen omaa tuotantoa. Siksi jakso saattaa sisältää mainontaa.

Jaksot(941)

SI405: Why Most Trend Following Improvements Should Fail ft. Rob Carver

Trend following investors are constantly searching for ways to improve performance, but not every improvement survives contact with reality. Rob Carver joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore whether i...

20 Kesä 1h 12min

GM102: China Built a Trap. Germany Set It. America Fell In. Europe Is Next ft. Michael Pettis

Michael Pettis joins Alan Dunne for a wide ranging conversation on trade imbalances, globalization and the future of the world economy. Drawing on decades of research into China, Europe and financial ...

17 Kesä 1h 23min

SI404: When Trend Following Meets Equities ft. Eric Crittenden & Andrew Beer

Trend following has long promised and delivered diversification, crisis protection and uncorrelated returns. Yet many investors still struggle to hold it through difficult periods. In this conversatio...

13 Kesä 1h 7min

UGO12: Why the Next Financial Crisis Could Change America Forever ft. Danielle DiMartino Booth

As Kevin Warsh prepares to take the reins at the Federal Reserve, a deeper question emerges: has the Fed reached the limits of what monetary policy can achieve? Cem Karsan sits down with Danielle DiMa...

10 Kesä 53min

SI403: Trend Following in an Era of Geopolitical Risk ft. Marat Molyboga & Katy Kaminski

Geopolitical tensions, inflation shocks, and shifting market regimes are reshaping the investment landscape. Marat Molyboga and Katy Kaminski joins us to explore why managed futures have historically ...

6 Kesä 1h 24min

ALO35: Why Macro Investing Is Becoming More Systematic ft. George Patterson

How do quantitative investors adapt when markets, technology and macro regimes are constantly changing? In this conversation, Alan Dunne sits down with George Patterson, CIO of PGIM Quant Solutions, t...

3 Kesä 1h 1min

SI402: Why Markets Can’t Stop Trending ft. Richard Brennan

What happens when markets stop behaving like machines and start behaving like living systems? In this episode, Richard Brennan joins Niels to explore passive investing, complex adaptive systems, volat...

30 Touko 1h 30min

IL49: The Space Economy Is No Longer Science Fiction ft. Rainer Zitelmann

On this episode we are joined by Dr. Rainer Zitelmann, to discuss his book New Space Capitalism: The Entrepreneurial Path to the Stars. We discuss why government-funded space programs were initially s...

27 Touko 1h 1min