Will Black Monday Come Early This Time? Ep. 325

Will Black Monday Come Early This Time? Ep. 325

666 Point Drop
Today the Dow finished off its worse week in 2 years with a 666 point drop. That is the third largest point drop in the history of the Dow. The last big drop that was larger happened during the 2008 financial crisis. Percentage-wise, though the 666-point drop today is only 2.5% so it's really not that big, as a historic decline.
3% Drop from All-Time Record High
It's large in a sense that we haven't had a one-day 2.5% decline in the Dow in quite some time. In fact, I'm not even sure when we last had a 3% correction. Now, that's what we had. the dow is now 3% below the all-time record high that it hit last week. Now, a 3% correction is pretty normal, except we haven't had one in a long time.
Is this Ominous?
The question is: is this the something of something more ominous or is this just a small correction? I think there's a lot of evidence that this is the start of something much bigger. Part of the evidence is that nobody is concerned! There's maximum complacency. Even the superstitious aren't concerned that the Dow fell exactly 666 points. People are so complacent that they're not even being superstitious.
1987 All Over Again
Casting that aside, think about this: 1987 was the year that we had a stock market crash. January was the best month for the U.S. stock market since 1987. The dollar just had its weakest January since 1987. So far, this year seems to have a lot in common with 1987. We know what happened in 1987: Black Monday. That didn't happen until October, but maybe this year it will come early. Maybe, next Monday. Now, obviously, the probability is not that we will have a crash on Monday, but it is a possibility. I would say the possibility is much higher than it has ever been, because of where we are, and what's going on.
Rates are Going Up
Also, the NASDAQ and the S&P were not down quite as much as the Dow, but they were both down about 2%. The catalyst for the sell-off was the continuation of the increase in long-term interest rates. The yield on the 10-year bond rose to 2.854%. That is the highest yield of the day, so bonds closed on the low of the day. On the 30-year bond, we closed at 30.97. There, the high of the day was 30.99 - almost 3.1%. I have been talking about this on this podcast - rates are going up, and they are going much, much higher. If you look at these charts, we've got a lot of air between where we are right now and the normal resistance.
Budget Deficits Going Up and Trade Deficits Going Up
Therein lies the complacency. Nobody is worried about the rise in interest rates. Nobody is thinking about 1987. It was rising interest rates that ultimately pricked that bubble. But why did rates rise? Because the budget deficits were going up and the trade deficits were going up. That's exactly what is happening now! Except they are bigger budget deficits and bigger trade deficits. And this is happening at a time when the United States is broke. Our massive debt is far greater than the one we had in 1987.

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Jaksot(1084)

Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34

Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34

Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34 * If oil goes down to $35/barrel we will not be able to produce oil for export at that price. * It is no accident that oil prices are dropping as the Fed is ending QE. * What are the implications for the U.S. Economy if the Oil Bubble bursts? * Good jobs in the industry sector will go away. * Oil sector business loans will default * Investors will lose money. * The fallout will be bigger than the dot com bubble. * If oil was a bubble fueled by cheap Fed money, what's next? * If the collapsing oil prices threaten recession, the Fed may launch QE4. * If the Fed does not launch QE4, other bubbles will be affected. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Joulu 201419min

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33 * Catalyst for the rally was the Retail Sales Report * Cars represent the largest part of the gain * Any slight good news is overblown * Bad news is ignored * Economy is not driven by spending * Economy is driven by savings and production * Gold stable and up on the year against the dollar * Those who question the Government's numbers are being called "Truthers" Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Joulu 201423min

Tax Loss Selling in Bitcoin Ep. 32

Tax Loss Selling in Bitcoin Ep. 32

Tax Loss Selling in Bitcoin Ep.32 * In 2014 Bitcoin was the worst-performing financial asset * Spending bitcoins triggers a taxable event * Spending or selling at a loss also reflects on your taxes * This holiday season, harvest tax losses while shopping * Write-off could exceed value of gift * You can also buy bitcoins back at a savings from original cost if you wait 30 days * Buy Gold and Silver while harvesting tax loss Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Joulu 201420min

Fannie and Freddie Guarantee Bigger Losses

Fannie and Freddie Guarantee Bigger Losses

* U.S. Taxpayers will be forced to guarantee mortgages with 3% down * Qualifiers are low-income or have not owned a home for 3 years * Government is spinning this as "prudent" * Buyers have very little skin in the game * If real estate prices plummet, walking away is an easy choice Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Joulu 201412min

Does Market Volatility Portend a Change of Trend? Ep. 30

Does Market Volatility Portend a Change of Trend? Ep. 30

* Stock market roller coaster ride this week * Chinese market plummets * Forex markets: Yen rallies after 7-year low * The Swiss may discourage the EU against QE * Unwarranted U.S.optimism as negative data is ignored * Gold and Silver strong despite bad press * Gold outperforming the Russel 2000 * Deficit in Manufactured Goods hit all-time high * China reports record trade surplus Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Joulu 201420min

Draghi Said ECB Considered Buying Every Asset Except Gold: Ep. 29

Draghi Said ECB Considered Buying Every Asset Except Gold: Ep. 29

* What is the goal of the "Inflation Mandate? * What is the exact number of the mandate? * If the real mandate is "less than 2%" they're already there * The European economy is expecting another QE, but I don't expect it. * How they plan QE if they don't know what they are going to buy? * Draghi cites success of U.S. QE, but the Fed has not shrunk its balance sheet. * They discussed buying all assets except gold because this would highlight failure of QE Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Joulu 201425min

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28 * This holiday shoppers had more shopping hours * 5% less traffic than last year * 11% less money spent than last year * The economy can't support robust holiday sales * Despite big drop in gas prices * Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

1 Joulu 201424min

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27 * Oil and gold stocks down * OPEC announced no decline in oil production * Crude trading below $66/barrel * Bump to the Dollar * Mining sector takes a hit * Gold down * A no vote on Swiss Gold initiative bullish for gold Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

30 Marras 201435min

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