Will Black Monday Come Early This Time? Ep. 325

Will Black Monday Come Early This Time? Ep. 325

666 Point Drop
Today the Dow finished off its worse week in 2 years with a 666 point drop. That is the third largest point drop in the history of the Dow. The last big drop that was larger happened during the 2008 financial crisis. Percentage-wise, though the 666-point drop today is only 2.5% so it's really not that big, as a historic decline.
3% Drop from All-Time Record High
It's large in a sense that we haven't had a one-day 2.5% decline in the Dow in quite some time. In fact, I'm not even sure when we last had a 3% correction. Now, that's what we had. the dow is now 3% below the all-time record high that it hit last week. Now, a 3% correction is pretty normal, except we haven't had one in a long time.
Is this Ominous?
The question is: is this the something of something more ominous or is this just a small correction? I think there's a lot of evidence that this is the start of something much bigger. Part of the evidence is that nobody is concerned! There's maximum complacency. Even the superstitious aren't concerned that the Dow fell exactly 666 points. People are so complacent that they're not even being superstitious.
1987 All Over Again
Casting that aside, think about this: 1987 was the year that we had a stock market crash. January was the best month for the U.S. stock market since 1987. The dollar just had its weakest January since 1987. So far, this year seems to have a lot in common with 1987. We know what happened in 1987: Black Monday. That didn't happen until October, but maybe this year it will come early. Maybe, next Monday. Now, obviously, the probability is not that we will have a crash on Monday, but it is a possibility. I would say the possibility is much higher than it has ever been, because of where we are, and what's going on.
Rates are Going Up
Also, the NASDAQ and the S&P were not down quite as much as the Dow, but they were both down about 2%. The catalyst for the sell-off was the continuation of the increase in long-term interest rates. The yield on the 10-year bond rose to 2.854%. That is the highest yield of the day, so bonds closed on the low of the day. On the 30-year bond, we closed at 30.97. There, the high of the day was 30.99 - almost 3.1%. I have been talking about this on this podcast - rates are going up, and they are going much, much higher. If you look at these charts, we've got a lot of air between where we are right now and the normal resistance.
Budget Deficits Going Up and Trade Deficits Going Up
Therein lies the complacency. Nobody is worried about the rise in interest rates. Nobody is thinking about 1987. It was rising interest rates that ultimately pricked that bubble. But why did rates rise? Because the budget deficits were going up and the trade deficits were going up. That's exactly what is happening now! Except they are bigger budget deficits and bigger trade deficits. And this is happening at a time when the United States is broke. Our massive debt is far greater than the one we had in 1987.

Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Jaksot(1084)

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26 Missing expectations on all economic indicators * Chicago Fed index .14 * PMI flash services 56.3 * Dallas Fed Manufacturing 10.5 * Case Shiller Index slows down to 4.9% * Consumer Confidence number down to 88.7M * Oil prices continue to fall * Big drop in Richmond Fed 75% below estimate * Optimism fueled by debt, consumption and bubbles Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

26 Marras 201428min

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict: Episode 25A * Riots are not the caused by the Grand Jury * The Grand Jury's statement did not address Michael Brown's culpability * All evidence points to officer's innocence * Media fears addressing Michael Brown's violent behavior * Young men are not raised to respect the law * This will happen again because there is no recourse to violence and false witness< Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Marras 201417min

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman runs premature victory lap: Episode 24A * Assumes that money-printing works because there is "no inflation" * Krugman's cure for the stock market bubble was the real estate bubble * The test is when the printing presses stop Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Marras 201417min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

Big News out of the Central Banks * U.S. FOMC * Primary concern - inflation is too low * no policy to "correct" the problem * Preparing markets for additional stimulus * Japanese Central Bank Doublespeak * Japanese sales tax hike postponed * Continued calls for more inflation * Why is sales tax is different than inflation? * Euro Decline * Mandating "stability" by increasing inflation? * Chinese Central Bank * Cut interest rate to 5.6% * Money flows to the dollar as a hedge because the market believes the Fed * Gold has not dropped much against the dollar and has risen against other currencies Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

22 Marras 201431min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

Episode 23: Going to Extreme to Prove a Point: Two articles about Peter Schiff: * MarketWatch - writer refused to address corrections before going to print except for my official title - The point of my forecasts is to help people avoid problems ahead of time - I did not call for a stock market crash; I predicted QE4 - The Fed can prevent a Dollar Crisis - I said hyperinflation is unlikely, but a possibility * New Republic - Writer quotes selectively from a Reason article to prove his own spin - Points to the CPI to refute real inflation - The price of a Big Mac mirrored the CPI until 2002 - Now price of Big Mac rises 2x as fast as CPI - This illustrates how the government measures inflation Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Marras 201427min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

Episode 22: Lessons from the Michael Brown Case: * Don't rob a convenience store. * Don't rob a convenience store while high. * Don't be conspicuous after robbing a convenience store while high. * If a policeman then stops you, obey the policeman. * Do not try to take the policeman's gun away from him. * But if you get shot in the hand going for the gun and run away, do not charge the policeman when he says, "freeze!" * The political narrative hides the real problem: unhealthy family life. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

20 Marras 201421min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 21

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 21

Episode 21: BoJ Seems to relieve Consumers' Struggle With Rising Prices by Creating More Inflation * Investors & Economists shocked to learn that Japan is officially in recession * Instead of a 2.1 rebound, there were back to back declines - a huge miss. * Economists cry "More Stimulus!" * Abe admits rising prices hurt the economy, contrary to inflation "Goal" * The theory that rising prices stimulate the economy is proving wrong in Japan, Russia and the U.S. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Marras 201426min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 20

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 20

Episode 20: Explosive Daily Upside Reversal in Gold Portends Potential Bottom * Weekly jobless claims higher than expected * Fewer people in the workforce * Job openings declining * Consumer sentiment survey at 7-year high? * false confidence in the economy due to oil prices * QE4 will be the mother of all QE * Gold and silver market reversal on Friday * Silver stocks up $4% * Gold stocks were up 6% Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Marras 201420min

Suosittua kategoriassa Liike-elämä ja talous

sijotuskasti
mimmit-sijoittaa
psykopodiaa-podcast
rss-rahapodi
rss-lahtijat
ostan-asuntoja-podcast
hyva-paha-johtaminen
rss-rahamania
leadcast
lakicast
rss-yritys-ja-erehdys
oppimisen-psykologia
rss-karon-grilli
rss-seuraava-potilas
kasvun-kipuja
pomojen-suusta
rss-uppoava-vn-laiva
rss-puhutaan-rahasta
rss-myynnin-myllerryksessa
rss-markkinointiradio