Ship Recycling Market Update Week 24 2026 | Brent Falls Below $90, Hormuz Deal Nears & Monsoon Rules

The war premium in global shipping and energy markets has finally cracked, but the ship recycling market is still waiting for the final signature.

In Week 24 of 2026, Brent crude fell sharply toward USD 89 per barrel, its lowest level since March, after President Trump suspended planned military strikes against Iran and signalled that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be signed as early as this weekend. Iran is also reported to be moving closer to approval, although no final agreement has yet been confirmed.

For the global ship recycling industry, this is a major turning point. The two forces that kept older vessels trading instead of recycling, high bunker costs and strong freight earnings, are now softening at the same time. The Baltic Dry Index eased to around 2,818, while Capesize earnings cooled to approximately USD 40,274 per day after last week’s peak near USD 49,511.

However, the timing remains difficult. The monsoon has now taken control of the beaching calendar across the Indian subcontinent, limiting near-term recycling activity even as macro conditions begin to improve.

This week’s episode examines:

• Brent crude falling toward USD 89 and the cracking of the war premium
• The possible US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
• The proposed 30-day de-mining timeline for Hormuz
• Why lower oil prices and softer freight could eventually release older tonnage
• Why the monsoon now controls beaching activity across South Asia
• Bangladesh’s stable Taka, steady steel prices, and strong Q3 demand outlook
• India’s Rupee recovery, softer Alang steel prices, and improving macro position
• Pakistan’s rising annual CPI, easing monthly inflation, and firm Gadani pricing
• How a Hormuz reopening may gradually reduce Pakistan’s Gulf proximity premium
• Turkey’s inflation pressure, Lira stability, and continued EU-regulated recycling niche
• Subcontinent recycling prices, vessel supply, and cash buyer sentiment
• Why the second half of 2026 may look more constructive than the first

Key market takeaway:

The war premium has cracked, Brent has moved below USD 90, freight has cooled, and currencies across the recycling markets have repaired themselves. But the beaching window is now governed by the monsoon. If the Hormuz agreement is signed and the 30-day de-mining clock begins, older tonnage may eventually face renewed pressure toward recycling, but not immediately.

The premium cracks. The pen hovers. The monsoon rules.

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