TTU03 How To Get Predictable Returns ft. Mike Dever of Brandywine Asset Management – 1of2

In this 2014 year-in-review, Karsten Shroeder looks at the CTA industry and give some advice on how to look at 2014 with a rational and objective eye. He also has insights into how 2015 will be for the CTA industry and how to educate more clients to the advantages of managed futures.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How the year evolved for Amplitude and it’s strategies.How the CTA industry did in 2014 in Karsten’s opinion.What models did well last year.How hard it is to shape models and make guesses based on world events that affect the markets.What Karsten learned from 2014.How they have increased their research team.Why his firm welcomes divergence in the markets.Why educating clients is very important.What diversification can do for clients in their portfolios.Why not to use 2014 as a reference point and say that this markets new returns for CTAs.What Karsten wishes for 2015.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:You can listen to 2 hour-long podcasts with Karsten here and here.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Karsten Schroeder on Linkedin.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to...

13 Tammi 201527min

For January 2015, we will be revisiting with previous guests on the show to find out how their businesses grew and changed in 2014, and what the year was like overall for their industries.In our first Year-In-Review episode, Jason Gerlach, the first-ever guest of Top Traders Unplugged, looks at 2014 from a long-term trend following perspective.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why 2014 was a great year for Sunrise Capital.What markets were responsible for much of their performance in 2014.The most challenging markets for Sunrise Capital last year.About their longer-term trend following strategies.How world events shaped market changes in 2014.About the oil collapse of 2014.How volatility returned to markets last year.How long-term trend following is getting more attention than before.How to avoid 2015 becoming like 2009 for this industry.If & When to turn down clients.How divergence is the one word that may summarize the next few years.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Listen to 2 hour-long episodes with Jason and Niels here and here.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jason on LinkedIn.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that...

12 Tammi 201541min

In the second part of our talk with Tim Pickering, we dive into the details of his firm and the challenges that he has to overcome as a business owner and entrepreneur. Tim has some valuable life lessons for managers who are just getting started. He also dives into the different ways investors should carry out their due diligence and why he wanted to become a manager in the first place.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The details of Auspice’s programs and what makes them different from other managers.What discretionary traders are good at and how Tim captures lessons from them in a systematic model.How he implements the system in practice.How Tim measures risk.How he copes with being in a drawdown.What he has learned from the drawdowns that Auspice has been through.What keeps him up at night.What questions he brainstorms with his research team currently.How to detect if a model is deteriorating.How meaningful are back tests?About the CTA value-added index that Auspice developed.The difference in investing through a fund, an EFT, or other options.What investors should be asking when they go through their due diligence with Auspice Capital.Why he became an entrepreneur.The books Tim would recommend for traders and managers.What skill he would pass on to his children if he could choose only one.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Barclay CTA IndexBooks by Jack Schwager.Simon Sinek’s Start with Why.How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie.The Prize by Daniel Yergin.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to <a...

29 Joulu 20141h 4min

What is the difference between simply following a trend and capturing it? Why is growth not consistent and gradual and why do we want it to be?Learn answers to these questions and more in this week’s episodes. Niels chats with the founder of a seasoned trend-follower in Canada, who knew he wanted to go into the financial markets since his university days. His story of working for large investment banks to starting his own firm will inspire current managers and hopeful managers alike.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why Tim tries to get away from being labelled as one thing or another.About growing up on a farm in Canada.How he knew he wanted to be a trader.How his experience in the energy markets affected the way he ran his business when he started it.Why discipline is so important for the kind of manager that Tim is.Why he has stuck with the theme of trading commodities.What Tim does when he is not running Auspice.The difference between following a trend and capturing a trend.How growth is not slow and steady.An overview of the products that Auspice runs.Why they launched a beta product after launching their flagship product.The history of how Tim grew Auspice with his business partner.How he chose to structure his business.How a small team can deliver the same value as a larger manager.What people should notice when looking at the track record of Auspice.What the Diversified Program does.How many markets he actually trades.Why position resizing is important.-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Tim Pickering on <a...

22 Joulu 20141h 5min

Rob Hartman knows that showing up is half the battle when it comes to work in any industry. But his viewpoint as a solo fund manager give us deep insight into the inner-workings of a firm and how it deals with drawdowns, track record, and investors’ questions. In Part 2 of our conversation with Rob, we dive into his models and programs and how each of them works. We also learn about Rob’s background that helps round out this picture of a successful manager.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why Hannah Montana has some life lessons to teach.Rob’s track record and how to read it.What happened when he changed his strategy.The details of the programs he runs.How Vanguard, his flagship product, works.How he manages his momentum trades, or trend following trades.Why his thoughts on position sizing have evolved over time.How he conducts his research and why he doesn’t do any discretionary trading on his models.The risk that he focuses on as a smaller manager and how he manages that risk.How he deals with questions about drawdowns from investors.How Rob copes emotionally when he experiences a drawdown.What his research process is without a research team.What is the optimal number of rules for Rob’s models to have.What questions investors are missing in their due diligence.Books he would recommend for would-be managers.The advice he gives to his kids and the lessons he wants to pass on.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Van Tharp – Trade Your Way To Financial FreedomRishi Narang – Inside the Black Box: A Simple Guide to Quantitative and High Frequency TradingRob also mentions getting inspiration from Kathryn Kaminski, who was our guest on Episode 41 and Episode 42.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a...

18 Joulu 20141h 12min

In starting any business, you run into unexpected roadblocks and challenges, and you learn something from each mistake. Our next guest is the founder of a trading firm who has grown his business twice and learned how to overcome the barriers in his way. We can learn a lot from someone who is ready for the unexpected whether it is good or bad.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:About his childhood in Upstate New York and Pennsylvania.Rob’s interest in music and sports.How his early Rock and Roll career faired and how he went into the financial industry.How he got hired at IBM.His years at IBM and the lessons it taught him.How his fascination for trading started after he began a consulting business.The tipping point: when he went full-in to the trading business.How he learned about different strategies and tested them.When he came upon trend following and what made him stick with it.What kind of trend following he started with.How a drawdown taught him he needed to differentiate himself from other managers.The lessons that his first expansion stage taught him.The big event that happened after 2010 that changed everything.About MF Global and the meltdown of that firm.An overview of the programs that his firm runs.How he manages investor expectations with a small team.How he outsources operational roles in order to cut costs and remain a one-man shop.-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob Hartman on Linkedin.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

15 Joulu 20141h 13min

Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with Dave Sanderson. In this episode we explore his trading program in detail, from the markets the firm trades to how they describe their program to investors. We also explore the challenges that he goes through as a business leader, dealing with drawdowns, and why optimism is so important to Dave.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why Dave believes that QIM is a unique firm in a reasonably similar category as KFL Capital Management.How to describe Krystal to investors and why it can be a challenge.About the length of time it takes for Krystal to compute the data and make a decision.Why the breakthroughs in computational power are supporting KFL Capital Management to make their systems faster each year.The markets KFL trades.Expected drawdown and volatility Krystal expects.How Dave expects to deal with drawdown environments.Research cycles within KFL Capital Management and the potential for a second Krystal.About the 99.3% match rate between their live trading and back testing results.The biggest challenge for KFL Capital Management in today’s market.About the challenge of attracting AUM in the modern financial landscape.Asymmetry of agency and understanding how to focus on who you’re talking to.Regarding the difficulties of explaining machine learning and big data ideas.Commonalities in the highest level due diligence explorers.Entrepreneurial perspective, great books and an open minded perspective on failures.Why optimism is such a powerful force in today’s world.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:The Medallion Fund – Jim Simon’s Fund.The Innovators by Water Isaacson.Zero to One by Peter Thiel.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to <a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

4 Joulu 20141h 14min

Our next guest on Top Traders Unplugged is the CEO and Co-Founder of KFL. In this episode we explore their trading strategy and uncover the fundamental differences between what they are doing that makes them so different from traditional alternative investment organizations.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Transitioning from commercial litigation to wholesale mutual fund vendingHow Dave Sanderson was exposed to alternative investments in the first placeThe convincing required to get top big data scientists to work on financial challengesThe comical story of how carefully big data scientist come to conclusionsWhat Dave Sanderson loves to do when he isn’t working directly on KFL Capital ManagementHow Dave Sanderson sees the deviation between machine learning and systematic tradingWhat it means to exist in a deluge of big dataHow Dave Sanderson and KFL perceive themselves and the usefulness of labelingIs machine learning a superior method than conventional approaches to trading?About the choice of Krystal as a name for their fundThe structuring challenges behind KFL Capital Management and why they are more like a tech firmThe focus for expanding KFL Capital ManagementAbout evolutionary computing and how KFL Capital Management grows with the marketsIs there an environment which would be optimal for Krystal?Is there an environment which would be severely challenging for Krystal?The use of non-parametric modeling and why this type of prediction takes KFL out of most conventional finance sector buckets-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Man AHL – Dave Sanderson’s initial exposure to alternative investment.Thomas K. Hunter – “He’s probably done more tech deals than anybody in Canada.”Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to <a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

1 Joulu 20141h 15min