TTU15: Model Decay & How Best to Handle It ft. Karsten Schroeder of Amplitude Capital – 1of2

What happens when an unexpected major event occurs and all of your supposedly diversified investments suddenly become correlated, before heading sharply to the downside? Jason Buck and his partner at Mutiny Fund have been thinking about this question for a long-time, and have created a portfolio designed to protect against these ‘Black Swan’, high-volatility events. Jason has been a long-time listener of the show, so it was only right that I invited him on to discuss some of the methods and thinking behind Mutiny Fund, and how these approaches can provide protection and profits during all market environments.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Jason got to where he is todayIf the initial risks Jason set out to protect his clients against, have changedWhy CTAs could be considered ‘long-volatility’ assets that provide protection during broad market selloffs such as 2020The benefits of ‘ensemble’ investingThe opposite requirements of building wealth versus keeping wealthWhy a sample size of 100 years is still just an anomalyWhy the typical ‘diverse’ portfolio might be riskier than investors realiseWhat a ‘long-volatility’ asset looks likeThe history of long-volatility assetsThe term ‘crisis alpha’ and what it means to him and his clientsHow to overcome the challenges of educating investors about volatility-event risksWhether the addition of long-volatility components to portfolios today has affected his initial approachWhy the Sharpe Ratio is often misunderstood as a risk measurement toolHow much, and why, returns vary among different long-volatility managersHow to approach position sizing with black swan events in mindSome of the common investor mistakesHow to choose between different Trend Following managersHow to create a strategy for inflationary and deflationary environmentsIf less-liquid assets can be safely incorporated into a portfolioHow to analyse backtests properlyIf Jason uses Gold and Bitcoin in his long-volatility strategiesWhat keeps Jason up at night in terms of risks-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to <a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

1 Kesä 20211h 17min

Rob Carver is on the show with us today to discuss why Elon Musk & the Chinese government might be proving that Bitcoin may not be as decentralised as first assumed, whether you should adjust your system according to the instrument being traded, some processes for reinvesting profits into your portfolio over time, thoughts on position sizing, different ways of defending against inflation, if short-term Trend Following may actually be as good as long-term Trend Following, and the sweet spot for number of different futures contracts a good system should trade.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:If Bitcoin is really as decentralised as it's reputed to beAdjusting your system on an individual trade basisWhat to do with your trading profitsDefending against inflationShort-term Trend Following versus long-term Trend Following-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:33 - Macro recap from Niels04:02 - Weekly review of returns12:15 - Rob’s decision to trade Bitcoin futures21:28 - Why Bitcoin may not be so decentralised38:05 - Q1; Dan: Do you think fitting by instrument makes sense for intraday Trend Following?48:43 - Q2; John: Why does Rob only allocate part of his profits back into his portfolio?57:19 - Q3; Peewee: If Rob could only trade 5 or 6 futures markets, which ones would he...

30 Touko 20211h 29min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss China’s move to ban Bitcoin trading, the Federal Reserve’s announcement of research into a new central bank digital currency, some of the issues around inflation and how it might affect trading, the psychology of drawdowns and the time in between new highs, how inflation can distort price signals, the recent rise of the ‘Misery Index’, Michael Burry’s huge bet against Tesla, the importance of exits in Trend Following strategies, and matching the right ‘Operation Tempo’ for your trading personality.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:China's recent banning of Bitcoin trading and miningThe Federal Reserve's announcement of a possible new digital currencyInflation and its effects on tradingThe psychology around drawdownsPrice signals and how they can be distorted by inflationMatching what Mark terms as 'Operation Tempo' with your personality-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:11 – Macro recap from Niels05:49 – Weekly review of performance11:00 – Further discussion on our recent talking point of discretionary versus systematic, including some comments from Top Traders Unplugged community member, Danny13:38 – Q1; Fernando: Does it get easier with time and experience, to endure drawdowns?22:40 – Some of the issues around inflation and how that might affect trading44:30...

23 Touko 20211h 15min

Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the benefits of prioritising price over other factors, navigating a high-inflationary environment, how bad markets for average investors can often be great for Trend Followers, how public awareness of a market uptrend can often precede large price drops, the potential drawbacks of trying to standout too much as a money-manager, how classical Trend Following is an increasing rarity in the CTA space, the benefits of investing in Trend Following via a proven manager, the similarities between amateur golfers and traders, the point at which a trend has been ‘confirmed’, and conquering the fear of losses.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Why you should prioritise price over any other form of dataHow bad markets for the average investor is often lucrative for Trend FollowersHow mainstream attention to market trends usually means they're about to endWhy money managers shouldn't always try to stand out too muchThe increasing rarity of classical Trend Following CTAsHow to embrace the mentality of cutting losses-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:55 - Macro recap from Niels06:07 - Weekly review of returns13:34 - Stanley Druckenmiller’s recent interview criticising the Federal Reserve16:17 - Q1 & Q2; Shibojet: What are your thoughts about a dynamic trading system that focuses more on what’s working over any given time-period, rather than a static trading...

16 Touko 20211h 11min

Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the Berkshire Hathaway annual general meeting, the possible raise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, today’s great environment for Trend Following, the unpredictable nature of the markets and future trends, decentralised finance, increasing ESG requirements in the investment industry, the meteoric rise of Lumber prices, new and smaller Bitcoin futures contracts being listed on the CME, thoughts on Ethereum and Ethereum futures, and the possible advantages of being in a Trend Follower in the cryptocurrency space versus the buy & hold speculators.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Berkshire Hathaways's recent annual general meetingThe likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest ratesHow to overcome the unpredictable nature of marketsThoughts on De-FiIncreasing sustainability requirements of the investment industryThe newer, smaller futures contracts being listed on the CMETrend Following on cryptocurrencies-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:21 - Macro recap from Niels02:49 - Weekly review of returns11:02 - The Berkshire Hathaway annual general meeting26:24 - Why Lumber prices are on the rise32:44 - New and smaller Bitcoin futures contracts being listed on the CME36:50 - Ethereum futures45:46 - Continued outflows...

9 Touko 20211h 4min

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss the process of selecting single stocks for a Trend Following system, Rob’s holy trinity of security selection, the JP Morgan-backed fund making huge bets, via options, on the market remaining quiet, the knock-on effects from funds who make large, risky bets, the sweet-spot for average holding periods in a Trend Following system, ‘caveman-style’ Trend Following versus scaling in and out of positions, how to hedge against inflation, how Trend Following historically has performed really well in rising interest-rate environments, and thoughts on Tesla’s recent earnings, a lot of which were from government subsidies and selling bitcoin.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Which stocks to select for a profitable Trend Following systemRob's 'Holy Trinity' for selecting securitiesThe ripple effects of large funds who make large and risky betsThe most profitable holding periods in Trend Following systems'Caveman-style' Trend FollowingHow to hedge against inflationTrend Following's success in rising interest-rate environmentsTesla's recent earnings-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:36 - Macro recap from Niels04:27 - Weekly review of returns09:38 - Discussion on Tesla’s recent earnings25:13 - Q1; Matt via the Top Traders...

3 Touko 20211h 13min

Today, Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show to discuss how Trend Following allows investors to own more risky assets, Systematic Global Macro versus Trend Following, the process of how an investor digests new information, classical Trend Following versus modern Trend Following with AI methods, whether rock-star hedge funds such as ARK Invest can end up being too greedy when seeking AUM, why it can be a good idea to avoid timing the different exposures of your portfolio as much as possible, some of the possible reasons behind Dunn Capital’s successful near 50-year track record, and thoughts on position-sizing in relation to historic volatility.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How a Trend Following approach allows safer access to risky marketsThe differences between Systematic Trading based on macro data versus based on price-onlyHow a top trader should efficiently process new dataModern AI-based Trend Following versus classical Trend FollowingWhether the biggest hedge funds in the world fall victim of being too greedy for AUMWhy you should avoid 'timing the market'The possible secrets of success behind Dunn Capital's near 50-year track record-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:00 – Macro recap from Niels08:46 – Weekly review of performance13:28 – Swedish systematic macro-fund, IPM, closes after losing $4billion during the pandemic28:37 – New style Trend Following with...

25 Huhti 20211h 21min

Jerry Parker returns to the show today to discuss the how investments can often turn into religions, the recent Coinbase IPO, using historical volatility for position sizing, comparing long-term trend following to Buy & Hold, ‘trend strength’ signals, how much of a portfolio should be allocated to Trend Following strategies, mean-reversion systems versus Trend Following systems, and thoughts on finding or adding to new positions.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The perils of becoming 'religious' about our investmentsCoinbase's recent stock market listingPosition sizing using historical volatilityBuy & Hold versus Trend Following over long-term look back periodsMean Reversion trading versus Trend-based tradingThe infamous Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:36 - Macro recap from Niels04:37 - Weekly review of returns09:37 - A question for Jerry, from Mark: If Trend Following philosophy assumes the future is unknown, why is normal to use historical price data?24:44 - ‘Trend Strength’ signals, what they are, and if you should use them26:52 - Whether Trend Followers do actually make market predictions35:49 - A question for Jerry from Jim: What

18 Huhti 20211h 11min