TTU15: Model Decay & How Best to Handle It ft. Karsten Schroeder of Amplitude Capital – 1of2

Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the little-known hedge fund Archegos, who recently blew up and cost billions of dollars for large institutions such as Credit Suisse and Nomura. We also discuss whether cracks are beginning to show in the stock market, the bull market in commodities, opportunities for investing in Chinese commodity markets, the risks of trading in emerging markets, how to trade cryptocurrency futures, and combining Trend Following strategies with none-correlated strategies in the same system.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Over-leveraged hedge funds showing little regard for riskWhat stage of the bull market in stocks we might be inThe rise in commodity pricesTrading in the Chinese commodity marketsThe possible risks of trading in emerging marketsCrypto futures and how they differ from more traditional futures marketsTrend Following combined with other investment strategies for a complete portfoliocall Gold a 'safe-haven' asset?-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:19 - Macro recap from Niels05:22 - Weekly review of returns12:48 - Quant trading firms being ready to pounce on a possible upcoming commodity boom, especially in China31:05 - The departure of some CTAs away from major exchanges, and the fund Archegos blowing up costing billions for major global banks49:25 - Arbitraging bitcoin...

11 Huhti 20211h 17min

Jerry Parker is back on the show with us today to discuss why short positions are beneficial to a profitable trading strategy, the importance of not over-tweaking an already good system, the case for Trend Following as the dominant strategy in an investment portfolio, the amount of volatility that can be regarded as too risky, and Jerry calls out Niels for a future debate regarding the possible uses of multi-timeframe analysis.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The reasons for avoiding a long-only trading systemKnowing when 'good enough' is good enoughWhy investors may be allocating to Trend Following in the wrong amountsWhen volatility equates to riskApproaches to multi-timeframe analysis-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:46 - Macro recap from Niels04:34 - Weekly review of returns46:37 - Q1; Marcus: What is Jerry’s approach to shorting stocks?49:50 - Q2 & Q3; Nathaniel: Do you have any suggestions for reliable ‘predictors of return’? Do you recommend trading futures that are in backwardation?57:16 - Q4; Nick: Are there advantages to trading markets that are unusually volatile?01:00:07 - Performance recap01:01:00 - Recommended listening or reading this week.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3...

4 Huhti 20211h 5min

Rob Carver joins us today to discuss whether it’s a good idea to adjust your strategy during different periods of volatility, Bitcoin’s expected role as an inflation-hedge, whether commodities are more suited to shorter-term trading than other markets, the NFT frenzy & its credibility as an investment asset, volume analysis and whether it can be play worthwhile part in a Trend Following system, and why volatility may not be a good measure of risk.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The case for and against Volatility TargetingWhether Bitcoin can offset any risks from a high-inflationary environmentWhether commodities can be suitable for long-term strategiesThe credibility of NFTs as an asset class Volume analysis as a trading signalVolatility as a measure of risk-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:24 – Macro recap from Niels04:17 – Weekly review of performance31:32 – Q1; Dennis: How can a retail trader with limited capital access the commodity markets?41:47 - Q2; Dennis: How would you deal with big intraday volatility such as in 2020?51:02 - Q3; Cat: Is volume analysis overrated?56:16 - Q4; Gustavo: Why should we be worried about volatility if it is going our way?01:05:52 - Q5; Emra: How often should you recalibrate your system? Why do you recommend not locking in profits...

29 Maalis 20211h 21min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Jerome Powell’s recent speech and how central banks can often confuse markets, the potential of Artificial Intelligence in systematic investing, whether or not holding government bonds is a good idea, the recent rise in interest rates and what it means for the stock market, the relationship between correlations and volatility, why policy makers should avoid trying to engineer future expectations, how recency-bias affects our decision making, complexity versus complicatedness, robotic systematic investing versus human discretionary investing, how to tell the difference between a systematic and discretionary trader by looking at returns only, and why ‘low-cost’ funds can often end up being more expensive than normal.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Whether artificial intelligence has a place in systematic investingInterest rates and their effects on the trading marketsHow correlations can increase volatilityThe benefits of a more 'hands-off' approach to policy-making The common perils of 'recency bias'Spotting a discretionary trader just by looking at returnsThe hidden costs behind supposed 'low cost' funds-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro03:14 – Macro recap from Niels06:36 – Weekly review of performance57:46 – Q1; Mike: How useful do you find capture ratios when analysing performance?1:08:29 – Q2; Andy: What do you think about utilising a...

21 Maalis 20211h 28min

Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the challenges of managing large amounts of cash in a high-inflationary environment, the importance of maintaining a healthy attitude during long winning-streaks, the resurgence & resilience of the GameStop short-squeeze, Bitcoin reaching $60,000, the importance of prioritising process over outcome, the new VIX ETFs for Bitcoin & Ethereum, and whether or not Gold is a safe long-term investment.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Smart ways to manage cash during periods of high inflationStaying humble during long winning periodsThe GameStop short-squeezeNew volatility-based ETFs for CryptocurrenciesWhy analysing the outcome instead of the process may prove costly in the long runCan we still call Gold a 'safe-haven' asset?-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:33 - Macro recap from Niels04:45 - Weekly review of performance32:56 - Q1; Daniel: How much do you risk per trade?48:32 - Q2; Karl: When using moving average crossovers, how do you get back into a trade you were quickly stopped out of?53:25 - Q3; Mark: Why should I place short trades if my backtest says long trades are more profitable? Have you looked at synthetic data, going back over 200 years?01:02:58 - Benchmark performance update01:03:52 - Recommended listening or reading this week: <a...

14 Maalis 20211h 9min

We have a special episode for you today featuring Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker and renown Systematic Investor Robert Carver, who debate the topic of Volatility Targeting and how actively one should manage open trade equity risk. We also discuss the benefits of ‘Hybrid Trend Following’ versus classical Trend Following, breakouts & moving averages versus other trend indicators, whether the 2020 market crash should have caused systematic investors to update their strategies, and if short positions should still have a place in today’s Trend Following portfolios.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The level of active-management that should be involved in controlling open trade equity riskThe benefits and drawbacks of volatility-targetingModern Trend Following methods compared to classical Trend FollowingThe 2020 ‘Covid Crash’ and its possible long-term effects on systematic investingHow important are short positions in a rules-based portfolio?-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:45 – Macro recap from Niels03:33 – Weekly review of performance10:10 – Jerry Parker vs Rob Carver debate53:13 – Q1; Michael: Why do you prefer breakouts & moving average cross-overs to other signals?56:58 – Q2; Rene: Do have preferred methods for measuring trend...

7 Maalis 20211h 23min

We’re joined today by Mark Rzepczynski to discuss the return of the GameStop short-squeeze, Trend Following in a high interest-rate environment, the future of AI & machine learning in trading models, the case for including short positions in a portfolio, how to spot a commodity ‘super-cycle’, the different factors driving markets higher, why good news can often be bad news for markets, retail investors opening trades on the wrong ticker symbols, and why Trend Following tends to do better on the long-side.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:If holding bonds "stupid"?The problem of being an economic policy engineerWhy we have to make a distinguish between complicated and complex systemsThe value of intuition - coup d'oeil and ClausewitzRobot systematic versus human (discretionary) can you tell the difference? Is there a Turing test and " I Robot"Correlation and volatilityThe poor quality of forecasts - latest from currency markets Due diligence and quality of managers.Intraday trends – are they stable or unstable?-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:46 – Macro recap from Niels05:18 – Weekly review of performance01:04:48 – Q1 & Q2; Plamen: Is there an official organisation that studies & publishes data about the CTA industry? Can you speak about the research process you follow and how you generate trade ideas?01:10:49 – Benchmark performance...

28 Helmi 20211h 16min

Jerry Parker returns today to discuss how Trend Following is perfectly suited for both inflationary and deflationary environments, why investors tend to underperform the S&P500 index, how to look at open trade risk & current equity curve, the perils of designing the ‘perfect’ trading system with all the bells & whistles, whether or not it’s a good idea to tighten stop-losses on profitable trades that have risen sharply, why financial media tends to dramatise the impact CTAs have on the markets, and why Trend Following on Bitcoin may be a better option than buy & hold.Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:28 – Macro recap from Niels03:30 – Weekly review of performance30:49 – Questions from Antonio: What was Bill & Richard’s performance like before they started the Turtle Trader program? What was Chesapeake’s performance like up until Salem Trading was taken under their wing? What has Trend Following performance been like in the 10 years before 2020? Did Richard Dennis want his Turtles to come up with new ideas? Why did famous Trend Followers stop Trend Following in the 1990s?59:43 – Q1; Mohit: Can you ask Jerry what risk-per-trade he recommends?01:02:36 – Q2; Peter: Has Jerry ever considered running a new ‘Turtle Trading’...

22 Helmi 20211h 18min