SI59: The dangers of investing in "stories" but why we all do it
On the show today, we cover some of the dangers of investing in something based on its story alone, how market environments can change while the behaviour of participants stays the same, why Trend Followers rely on secret fundamental information being baked into price, the importance of avoiding Outcome Bias, how cockroaches behave in ways that should be the basis of any robust Trading System, and Niels explains how to use the Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer. Questions we answer this week include: Do you prefer simple or exponential Moving Averages? Should you use the closing price or the settlement price? Do you measure ATR from the closing price or settlement price? How would you best illustrate trend strength over particular periods of time?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro00:50 – Live event recap06:00 – Macro recap from Niels09:55 – Weekly review of returns12:45 Niels describes his trend indicator16:40 – Top tweets34:55 – Questions 1/2: Scott; Do you prefer a specific type of moving average? Do you use settlement or last trade in your models?38:50 – Question 3: Carl; Do you calculate ATR using the closing price (versus entry price)?40:30 – Question 4: Nathan; How do you articulate the current volatility environment versus history?50:00 – Benchmark performance update51:40 – More live event commentsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...
29 Loka 201954min
SI58: The consequences of Bank of America declaring the END of the 60/40 portfolio
This week, we discuss Bank of America’s declaration of the end of the traditional 60/40 portfolio, the different attitudes to having ‘insurance’ in the markets, the reasons why too many fund managers are aiming for average returns, and the importance of consistently being present to profit from the biggest price moves. Questions we cover this week include: what can be considered a large enough sample size when performing a backtest? What is the best investing advice you have ever received? Should Trend Following funds screen potential clients? How do you deal with positions that show no price movement for a period of time?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:05 – Macro recap from Niels04:10 – Weekly review of performance07:00 - Top tweets38:00 – Question 1: Jacob; How do you do actual executions (order types, manual, etc.)?40:50 – Question 2: Jacob; When you get a fill, how do you set your stop?42:40 – Question 3: Jacob; What happens if a stop is hit on the day of entry?45:40 - Question 4: Mannik; What sample size is sufficient for a backtest?49:30 – Questions 5/6: Craig; Should TF investors be screened for patience? What personality traits are best for TF and the required patience?57:40- Questions 7/8: Dimitri; How do you handle positions that haven’t moved in a long time? Does the potential for a large move increase the longer a price goes sideways?01:03:20 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...
19 Loka 20191h 6min
SI57: Why investors confuse volatility & noise with risk & instability
On this week’s episode, we discuss the tendency for investors to confuse volatility & noise with risk and instability, the benefits of great mentorship, why the best investments are those that have survived calamitous periods, why risk from any single market shouldn’t be able to ruin your portfolio, and Larry Hite’s observation that there is very little magic in Trend Following. Questions we answer this week include: can a 10-year track record can be considered as anything more than noise? Is there a way to achieve exceptionally high returns with minimal risk & volatility? What really is a ‘fat tail’? Can Trend Followers make money in rising interest-rate environments? Can you apply Trend Following to the VIX index?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:15 - Macro recap from Niels08:15 - Top tweets45:45 - Question 1: Gaetano; Is it reasonable to TF volatility/VIX futures?50:00 - Debate: Can TF make money in a rising rate environment?01:01:20 - Benchmark performance update01:03:30 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19; Special Guest: Denise ShullCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a...
13 Loka 20191h 5min
SI56: The risk of smooth and steady returns for risk avers investors
This week, we discuss the potential risks of aiming for smooth & steady returns, the pitfalls of having to make predictions, the higher-than-expected appearances of tail events, why it’s dangerous to look at the ‘average performance’ of an industry, and why aiming to trade in a style that suits your personality can actually turn out to be a bad idea. Questions we cover this week include: Have you encountered any CTAs with unusually low-frequency trading strategies? Should the optimization of your strategy come from an ideas-based approach or a data-based approach? How do you feel about the integration of Value Investing into a Trend Following strategy? What does discipline mean to you, and how do you stay disciplined?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:05 - Request for podcast reviews01:30 - Macro recap from Niels04:00 - Weekly review of performance11:10 - Top tweets43:25 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19; Special Guest: Denise Shull44:20 - Question 1: Chris; What should an individual pay in fees (data, commissions, etc.)?47:45 - Question 2: Chris; Do you follow front month or highest open interest contracts/continuous contracts or the month you are trading?54:30 - Question 3: Jacob; Have you encountered extremely low frequency CTAs?01:00:20 - Question 4: Jacob; What is your opinion on optimizing using ideas (vs data) first?01:03:50 - Question 5: Jacob; How do you feel about TF meets value investing?01:08:30 - Question 6: Adrian;...
7 Loka 20191h 17min
TTU111: Alignment of Interest ft. Alan Sheen of Dalton Street Capital – 2of2
Today on Top Traders Unplugged, I continue our conversation with Alan Sheen, talking about how and why he designed Dalton Street Capital’s investment strategy the way he did, and how it has performed compared to the market average over the past three years. Listen in to today’s episode to learn how Alan’s strategies are different from traditional managed futures, his managerial approach that enables employees to innovate, and what an investor should ask a potential manager when doing their due diligence.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why Alan developed a hedging strategy based on volatility and liquidityThe connection between the Australian and US marketsWhy Alan does not trade in US markets in his intra-day strategyWhy Dalton Street Capital focuses on Australiasian marketsWhere Dalton Street Capital’s return profile comes fromWhy Alan also trades in medium to long-term trend followingHow Dalton Street Capital’s equity portfolio performs against the market averageAlan’s perspective on model decayWhy alignment of interest is important in an investment strategyHow Alan approaches market researchWhat questions should investors be asking themselves-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on TwitterCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I...
2 Loka 201955min
SI55: Aligning your investments with the best odds and why the Sharpe needs salt
In this week’s episode, we discuss why Sharpe Ratios should be taken with a pinch of salt, the benefits of using a Trading Coach, why consistently aligning with the best odds may be a better strategy than trying to predict future price moves, DUNN Capital’s recent award from HedgeWeek magazine, why ‘the standout hedge fund traders this year have been computer-driven Trend-Followers’, and why Risk Management is more important than strategy or philosophy. Questions answered this week include: Why are commodities seen as more risky than equities? Can you use Options in a Trend Following strategy? Should you keep your stop-loss proportionately the same across different time-frames? Are there any markets to be avoided by new managers?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.-----Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:05 – Reading of various podcast reviews03:00 – Macro recap from Niels06:20 – Weekly review of performance10:15 – Discussion of Mercer Trend Following paper18:15 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19; Special Guest: Denise Shull20:35 – Top tweets36:10 – Questions 1/2/3: Eric; Do you hedge with OTM options? Can you use options to trade trends? Will HFT algos negatively impact TF systems?41:40 – Question 4: Sam; Should stop distance (ATR multiple) adjust with the trend speed?47:50 – Question 5: Noobe; Are there any contracts a new manager should avoid?54:20 – Question 6: Clay; With minimal trading activity, what do TF do all day?01:00:50 – Question 7: Giangitano; Should...
29 Syys 20191h 14min
TTU110: The Opportunity of Volatility ft. Alan Sheen of Dalton Street Capital – 1of2
Today on Top Traders Unplugged, I’m speaking with Alan Sheen, Founder and CIO of Dalton Street Capital. Alan has an interesting background in science and engineering, and also spent time in the military, which allowed him to later thrive in rules-based investing. He’s also the first Australian manager to be on the podcast. Listen in to today’s episode to learn about Alan’s journey from the Australian military to starting his own investment firm, why investors should look at volatility not as risk but as an opportunity, and what an investor’s own personal car says about their investment strategies.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:What Alan’s childhood was like in AustraliaWhy Alan studied aeronautical engineeringHow Alan equates gas-turbine engines with robust investingHow Alan’s experience in the military helps him as an investorHow Alan was influenced by Darwin’s “The Origin of the Species”Quantitative investment’s prevalence in Australia in the early ’90sThe influence the VIX Index had on Alan’s careerHow Alan’s hedging strategy turned into a managed futures strategyWhy Alan use an equity portfolio as collateral instead of cashHow volatility can be opportunity and a friendHow Berkshire Hathaway has benefited from a volatile marketThe importance of an investment manager to personalize their hedge funds-----Links Mentioned:Sensation Seeking and Hedge FundsFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on <a href="https://my.captivate.fm/@HESTASuper" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
25 Syys 201939min
SI54: Why NOT losing money is more important than missing opportunities
In this episode, we discuss Howard Mark’s comments regarding not losing money being more important than missing opportunities, how solid Trend Following performance can often stay on the edge of randomness, recent opposing comments from the AHL founders on the effectiveness of Trend Following in today’s markets, why complexity and complication might actually be different from one another, and we also touch on a white paper which points out an increased inaccuracy with backtests the more complex a system gets. Questions answered this week include: How easy is Trend Following to carry out? Are funds today charging too much in fees? Is there a way to accurately predict future price moves? Daniel Crosby mentioned in a recent Top Traders Unplugged interview, that ‘the best investments were the ones that were left alone’, what do we think about that statement? How do we keep our cool around friends & family after a very bad week in the markets? Do clients have a wide & varied attitude toward portfolio volatility?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:00 – Weekly recap from Niels04:10 – Weekly review of performance09:00 – Top tweets39:00 – Question 1: Francois; How do you stay cool after a bad week trading?48:30 – Question 2: Adrian; What is the optimal level of trading activity in a robust system?52:20 – Question 3: James; Should CTAs offer the same program with different vol targets?01:02:00 – Question 4: James; Is Jerry trading individual stocks or a basket of...
22 Syys 20191h 9min
