GM07: The father of the Yield-Curve indicator ft. Campbell Harvey

GM07: The father of the Yield-Curve indicator ft. Campbell Harvey

In today’s episode we are joined by Campbell Harvey, Professor of Finance at Duke University and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Cam served as Editor of The Journal of Finance from 2006 to 2012 and as the 2016 President of the American Finance Association. He holds a Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Chicago.

Although Cam is well-known as being the inventor of the Yield-Curve Indicator, with an eight for eight track record in forecasting recessions in the U.S., he is also involved in crypto and blockchain technology, which made our conversation wide-ranging and super interesting.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

Topics Discussed in this Episode:

  • The ‘Great Compression’ rather than another Great Depression
  • How the Yield Curve indicator was signalling a mild recession even before the Corona crisis
  • Why politician’s would rather have inflation than raise taxes
  • How 50% of all companies in the S&P 500 were completely unaware of the risk of pandemics
  • Why Bitcoin failed as a hedge in its first ever recession
  • Why the US Dollar’s days as a world reserve currency are numbered
  • Why central banks may now feel incentivised to create their own digital currencies
  • Technology and how it’s going to unleash opportunities to transact value & human capital on a scale never seen before
  • Cam’s somewhat rare, positive outlook for the future
  • Why peer to peer transactions and lending will be the way forward

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

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Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

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Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

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TTU41: Trend Following Expert Explains All ft. Kathryn Kaminski of AlphaSimplex – 1of2

TTU41: Trend Following Expert Explains All ft. Kathryn Kaminski of AlphaSimplex – 1of2

Our next guest is different than any guest we’ve had before, as she is not a fund manager but has spent much of her life’s work researching and writing about the topic of trend following. She is a tru...

3 Marras 20141h 8min

TTU40: What To Do If You Are Making Too Much Money! ft. Mike Harris of Campbell & Company – 2of2

TTU40: What To Do If You Are Making Too Much Money! ft. Mike Harris of Campbell & Company – 2of2

Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with Managed Futures expert and President Mike Harris of Campbell & Company. In this episode we delve into the specifics of Campbell & Company’s trading programs,...

30 Loka 20141h 9min

TTU39: President of Famous CTA Firm Tells All ft. Mike Harris of Campbell & Company – 1of2

TTU39: President of Famous CTA Firm Tells All ft. Mike Harris of Campbell & Company – 1of2

This episode goes in-depth into the history of one of the most well-known managed futures firms in the world, Campbell & Company. We explore the beginnings of the company, how they have dealt with cha...

27 Loka 20141h 9min

TTU38: The Real Secret Behind Trend Following & How It Works ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital – 2of2

TTU38: The Real Secret Behind Trend Following & How It Works ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital – 2of2

In the second part of our conversation with AHL founder and Aspect Capital Director, we dive into the details of his firm’s strategies and models. We explore how the models evolve, how he deals with r...

9 Loka 20141h 8min

TTU37: How to Build a Multi-Billion$ Trend-Following Firm ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital – 1of2

TTU37: How to Build a Multi-Billion$ Trend-Following Firm ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital – 1of2

In this episode, we get an exciting behind-the-scenes story of one of the most famous systematic trading firms of its time, AHL. Our guest is one of the firms founders and takes us from the company’s ...

6 Loka 20141h 9min

TTU36: A Look inside a Currency Trading Firm ft. Chris Cruden of Insch Capital Management – 2of2

TTU36: A Look inside a Currency Trading Firm ft. Chris Cruden of Insch Capital Management – 2of2

In Part 2 of our conversation with the CEO of Insch Capital Management, we talk about how the firm’s trading models work and how they were built. We discuss how Insch deals with drawdowns, increased r...

2 Loka 20141h 5min

TTU35: The Advantages of Being a Systematic Trader ft. Chris Cruden of Insch Capital Management – 1of2

TTU35: The Advantages of Being a Systematic Trader ft. Chris Cruden of Insch Capital Management – 1of2

Our next guest was a British Army Officer and moved to South Africa before finding a career in the financial markets. He is now the CEO of his Managed Futures firm and has worked with some of the indu...

29 Syys 20141h 10min

TTU34: The Art of Risk Management ft. Luc Van Hof of Capital Hedge – 2of2

TTU34: The Art of Risk Management ft. Luc Van Hof of Capital Hedge – 2of2

In the second part of our interview with hedge fund founder Luc Van Hof, we dive into the philosophy and creation behind his trading models. We also discuss why he is a risk averse person, what hobbie...

25 Syys 20141h 22min

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