Are Option Probabilities B.S.?

Are Option Probabilities B.S.?

One of the attractions of trading options is the idea that you can create trades with varying degrees of probabilities of profit. In this episode, I put the option probabilities that the trading platforms give us to the test by doing a 10year backtest. The focus is on comparing both the call and put side to see if over a long term period of time, if the probabilities play out as expected.

As a bonus, listeners can view the studies discussed in this episode over on the community website in the Podcast section.

Here's the direct link:

https://www.stockmarketoptionstrading.net/topics/4369023

Also, for those interested in generating income up to 3 times per week trading SPX 0DTE spreads, check out the SPX Masterclass and Community. Now with a live chat feed to see what trades members are taking in real time.

Here's the link to the Course:

https://www.stockmarketoptionstrading.net/all-courses

Thanks for listening and supporting independent research on this show.

Jaksot(177)

153: SPX Options Setup After Surprise EU Tariff News

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152: S&P 500 Shrugs Off Credit Downgrade? | Broken Wing Butterfly Setup

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151: This Week In The S&P500: Your Charts Might Be Lying...

151: This Week In The S&P500: Your Charts Might Be Lying...

📈 Volatility, Indicators, and the SPX Weekly Forecast | Episode 151In this episode of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, I cover how volatile price action can distort technical indicators—and ...

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150: SPX Forecast After 9-Day Rally | Iron Condor Strategy Adjustments

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📈 First Video Podcast, SPX Forecast After 9-Day Rally, Iron Condor Adjustments & Market ForecastsWatch the video here: https://youtu.be/Pk22BcCBfn0Welcome to episode 150 of the Stock Market Options T...

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149: This Week In The S&P500: Trading Iron Condors and Truflation

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148: This Week In The S&P500: Tariff Turmoil, Fed Caution, and a Choppy Bounce

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In this episode, Eric recaps last week's wild ride in the S&P 500, driven by tariff headlines, a surprise 90-day pause, and a sharp oversold rally. He covers key economic data—including CPI, PPI, and ...

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147: This Week in the S&P500: Market Volatility, Tariffs, and Fed Speculation

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In this episode, Eric discusses the sharp market selloff following the surprise "Liberation Day" announcement, ongoing tariff drama, and how global markets are reacting. He breaks down key SPX levels ...

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146: This Week in the S&P500: How to Stay Defensive Without Going Short

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