#168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion

#168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion

"If we carry on looking at these industrialised economies, not thinking about what it is they're actually doing and what the potential of this is, you can make an argument that, yes, rates of growth are slowing, the rate of innovation is slowing. But it isn't.

What we're doing is creating wildly new technologies: basically producing what is nothing less than an evolutionary change in what it means to be a human being. But this has not yet spilled over into the kind of growth that we have accustomed ourselves to in the fossil-fuel industrial era. That is about to hit us in a big way." — Ian Morris

In today’s episode, host Rob Wiblin speaks with repeat guest Ian Morris about what big-picture history says about the likely impact of machine intelligence.

Links to learn more, summary and full transcript.

They cover:

  • Some crazy anomalies in the historical record of civilisational progress
  • Whether we should think about technology from an evolutionary perspective
  • Whether we ought to expect war to make a resurgence or continue dying out
  • Why we can't end up living like The Jetsons
  • Whether stagnation or cyclical recurring futures seem very plausible
  • What it means that the rate of increase in the economy has been increasing
  • Whether violence is likely between humans and powerful AI systems
  • The most likely reasons for Rob and Ian to be really wrong about all of this
  • How professional historians react to this sort of talk
  • The future of Ian’s work
  • Plenty more

Chapters:

  • Cold open (00:00:00)
  • Rob’s intro (00:01:27)
  • Why we should expect the future to be wild (00:04:08)
  • How historians have reacted to the idea of radically different futures (00:21:20)
  • Why we won’t end up in The Jetsons (00:26:20)
  • The rise of machine intelligence (00:31:28)
  • AI from an evolutionary point of view (00:46:32)
  • Is violence likely between humans and powerful AI systems? (00:59:53)
  • Most troubling objections to this approach in Ian’s view (01:28:20)
  • Confronting anomalies in the historical record (01:33:10)
  • The cyclical view of history (01:56:11)
  • Is stagnation plausible? (02:01:38)
  • The limit on how long this growth trend can continue (02:20:57)
  • The future of Ian’s work (02:37:17)

Producer and editor: Keiran Harris
Audio Engineering Lead: Ben Cordell
Technical editing: Milo McGuire
Transcriptions: Katy Moore

Jaksot(320)

#221 – Kyle Fish on the most bizarre findings from 5 AI welfare experiments

#221 – Kyle Fish on the most bizarre findings from 5 AI welfare experiments

What happens when you lock two AI systems in a room together and tell them they can discuss anything they want?According to experiments run by Kyle Fish — Anthropic’s first AI welfare researcher — som...

28 Elo 20252h 28min

How not to lose your job to AI (article by Benjamin Todd)

How not to lose your job to AI (article by Benjamin Todd)

About half of people are worried they’ll lose their job to AI. They’re right to be concerned: AI can now complete real-world coding tasks on GitHub, generate photorealistic video, drive a taxi more sa...

31 Heinä 202551min

Rebuilding after apocalypse: What 13 experts say about bouncing back

Rebuilding after apocalypse: What 13 experts say about bouncing back

What happens when civilisation faces its greatest tests?This compilation brings together insights from researchers, defence experts, philosophers, and policymakers on humanity’s ability to survive and...

15 Heinä 20254h 26min

#220 – Ryan Greenblatt on the 4 most likely ways for AI to take over, and the case for and against AGI in <8 years

#220 – Ryan Greenblatt on the 4 most likely ways for AI to take over, and the case for and against AGI in <8 years

Ryan Greenblatt — lead author on the explosive paper “Alignment faking in large language models” and chief scientist at Redwood Research — thinks there’s a 25% chance that within four years, AI will b...

8 Heinä 20252h 50min

#219 – Toby Ord on graphs AI companies would prefer you didn't (fully) understand

#219 – Toby Ord on graphs AI companies would prefer you didn't (fully) understand

The era of making AI smarter just by making it bigger is ending. But that doesn’t mean progress is slowing down — far from it. AI models continue to get much more powerful, just using very different m...

24 Kesä 20252h 48min

#218 – Hugh White on why Trump is abandoning US hegemony – and that’s probably good

#218 – Hugh White on why Trump is abandoning US hegemony – and that’s probably good

For decades, US allies have slept soundly under the protection of America’s overwhelming military might. Donald Trump — with his threats to ditch NATO, seize Greenland, and abandon Taiwan — seems hell...

12 Kesä 20252h 48min

#217 – Beth Barnes on the most important graph in AI right now — and the 7-month rule that governs its progress

#217 – Beth Barnes on the most important graph in AI right now — and the 7-month rule that governs its progress

AI models today have a 50% chance of successfully completing a task that would take an expert human one hour. Seven months ago, that number was roughly 30 minutes — and seven months before that, 15 mi...

2 Kesä 20253h 47min

Beyond human minds: The bewildering frontier of consciousness in insects, AI, and more

Beyond human minds: The bewildering frontier of consciousness in insects, AI, and more

What if there’s something it’s like to be a shrimp — or a chatbot?For centuries, humans have debated the nature of consciousness, often placing ourselves at the very top. But what about the minds of o...

23 Touko 20253h 34min

Suosittua kategoriassa Koulutus

rss-murhan-anatomia
psykopodiaa-podcast
rss-narsisti
voi-hyvin-meditaatiot-2
aamukahvilla
rss-vapaudu-voimaasi
psykologia
rss-liian-kuuma-peruna
dear-ladies
leveli
adhd-podi
kesken
rss-duodecim-lehti
aloita-meditaatio
ihminen-tavattavissa-tommy-hellsten-instituutti
rss-koira-haudattuna
rahapuhetta
ilona-rauhala
rss-niinku-asia-on
rss-luonnollinen-synnytys-podcast