GM68: Chief Strategist: “Most Scenerios Point to Recession” ft. Peter Berezin

GM68: Chief Strategist: “Most Scenerios Point to Recession” ft. Peter Berezin

Peter Berezin Chief Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research returns in this episode to discuss with Alan Dunne why he believes the US economy will soon enter recession and the S&P 500 will fall as low as 3750. Peter highlights the leading indicators in the housing market, labour market and in manufacturing that suggest to him that the economy is on a weakening trend and why he expects the unemployment rate to rise from here. They discuss current equity valuations, the Mag 7 and why investors may be overly optimistic on AI - Peter believes his base case of a fall in the S&P 500 to 3750 might be optimistic given the elevated level of profit margins. They also delve into what a Fed easing cycle will look like in the next downturn, Peter’s call for 3% 10 year yields in the US and the implications for fixed income, the US dollar and commodities.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:19 - What has changed since our last conversation?

07:29 - Signs of weakness?

09:31 - The key indicators of weakness

12:15 - Are we actually becoming more wealthy?

15:26 - Assessing the savings rate

17:02 - Berezin's model for analyzing the economy

20:04 - Is the lag kicking in now?

22:00 - Challenges in the banking system

24:37 - Are we seeing a tail wind...

Jaksot(907)

ALO32: AI Booms, Fiscal Strains and the New Macro Regime ft. Joe Little

ALO32: AI Booms, Fiscal Strains and the New Macro Regime ft. Joe Little

Alan Dunne speaks with HSBC Asset Management’s Global Chief Strategist, Joe Little, about what happens when the old macro rules stop working. Joe traces the shift from a demand led, low inflation worl...

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SI376: What They’re Only Now Starting to See ft. Andrew Beer

SI376: What They’re Only Now Starting to See ft. Andrew Beer

In this week’s Systematic Investor episode, Niels and Andrew Beer explore how a broken 60/40 paradigm is forcing wealth managers into a new world of “other” diversifiers. Andrew reflects on the Goldma...

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IL43: The Land Trap: How Property Shapes Power ft. Mike Bird

IL43: The Land Trap: How Property Shapes Power ft. Mike Bird

In today’s episode we talk about the world’s oldest, and still most important asset: land. Our guest is the Economist’s Wall Street Editor Mike Bird. Mike is the author of a newly released book The La...

26 Marras 20251h

SI375: CTAs After the Walls Come Down ft. Rob Carver

SI375: CTAs After the Walls Come Down ft. Rob Carver

Rob Carver returns for a conversation that quietly questions the foundations. Is trend following an edge - or just a reward for holding discomfort others can’t? From the role of skew in shaping outcom...

22 Marras 20251h 17min

UGO08: The Coming Hunger Games for Global Savings ft. David Dredge

UGO08: The Coming Hunger Games for Global Savings ft. David Dredge

Recorded live from the Cboe RMC floor in Munich, Cem Karsan sits down with volatility veteran David Dredge for a deep exploration of what truly drives risk. From the crash of 1987 to today’s era of co...

19 Marras 20251h 4min

SI374: When the Data Goes Dark: Trend Following, Turbulence & Total Portfolios ft. Katy Kaminski

SI374: When the Data Goes Dark: Trend Following, Turbulence & Total Portfolios ft. Katy Kaminski

What happens when the data goes dark, yet markets barely flinch? In this episode, Niels and Katy unpack the month of October defined by missing economic releases, relentless equity strength and three ...

15 Marras 202559min

GM91: Inside China’s Growth Dilemma ft. George Magnus

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China’s ascent tells two stories. One of power, precision, and industrial brilliance - the other of imbalance, aging, and constraint. In this episode, Alan Dunne and George Magnus trace the hidden geo...

12 Marras 20251h

SI373: Why Trend Thrives When Inflation Returns ft. Yoav Git

SI373: Why Trend Thrives When Inflation Returns ft. Yoav Git

What if markets move not by logic, but by pressure? In this conversation, Alan Dunne and Yoav Git trace the invisible currents behind price formation, namely how a single dollar of inflow can lift val...

8 Marras 20251h 2min

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