The Pit and the Pendulum

Episode #129: Andrea Passeri and Hunter Marsten co-authored an article which looks at Myanmar’s quest for a non-aligned foreign policy, and that is the subject of this podcast discussion.

In 2011-12, following many years of military rule, the Thein Sein administration moved quickly to gain both domestic and international legitimacy. It instituted economic and political reforms, allowing the NLD, who had boycotted the elections, back into the political mainstream.

From the military junta’s previous negative-neutral foreign policy, the new government began shifting to a positive and active policy of non-alignment. There was a tangible feeling of openness and hope taking root. With Aung Sang Suu Kyi’s ascendence in the years that followed, this more outward-looking foreign policy continued; Passeri and Marsten consider this a high-water mark for Myanmar in terms of a policy of positive neutrality.

However, things started to turn in 2016, when the Rohyinga crisis played out on a worldwide stage. As a result, sanctions once again began to be imposed on the country. Aung Sang Suu Kyi’s apologist stance towards the military turned off once-enthusiastic international supporters; foreign aid and investment dried up, and the country once again became more inward-looking. So as Myanmar’s international legitimacy dissolved, the pendulum began swinging back towards negative neutralism.

The authors emphasize the role that self-reliance plays in the ability to successfully enact both positive non-alignment and negative neutralist policies. It is, in fact, quite a challenge for small countries like Myanmar either way, because they are most often not self-reliant enough to “go it alone.” So while Myanmar may never have fully realized a goal of positive non-alignment, it has never really been able to fully realize negative neutralism, either.

Today, with few countries willing to countenance the Tatmadaw’s violent and repressive rule, Myanmar is a pariah nation internationally and has become increasingly aligned with the authoritarian Great Powers, China and Russia. However, Marsten remains optimistic about the future because he believes that the younger generation has learned the lessons it needs to have learned to ultimately gain power and realize those goals.