How much does a vote matter? (Article)

How much does a vote matter? (Article)

If you care about social impact, is voting important? In this piece, Rob investigates the two key things that determine the impact of your vote:

  1. The chances of your vote changing an election’s outcome.
  2. How much better some candidates are for the world as a whole, compared to others.

He then discusses a couple of the best arguments against voting in important elections, namely:

  1. If an election is competitive, that means other people disagree about which option is better, and you’re at some risk of voting for the worse candidate by mistake.
  2. While voting itself doesn’t take long, knowing enough to accurately pick which candidate is better for the world actually does take substantial effort — effort that could be better allocated elsewhere.

Finally, Rob covers the impact of donating to campaigns or working to "get out the vote," which can be effective ways to generate additional votes for your preferred candidate.

We last released this article in October 2020, but we think it largely still stands up today.

Chapters:

  • Rob's intro (00:00:00)
  • Introduction (00:01:12)
  • What's coming up (00:02:35)
  • The probability of one vote changing an election (00:03:58)
  • How much does it matter who wins? (00:09:29)
  • What if you’re wrong? (00:16:38)
  • Is deciding how to vote too much effort? (00:21:47)
  • How much does it cost to drive one extra vote? (00:25:13)
  • Overall, is it altruistic to vote? (00:29:38)
  • Rob's outro (00:31:19)

Producer: Keiran Harris

Jaksot(321)

#205 – Sébastien Moro on the most insane things fish can do

#205 – Sébastien Moro on the most insane things fish can do

"You have a tank split in two parts: if the fish gets in the compartment with a red circle, it will receive food, and food will be delivered in the other tank as well. If the fish takes the blue trian...

23 Loka 20243h 11min

#204 – Nate Silver on making sense of SBF, and his biggest critiques of effective altruism

#204 – Nate Silver on making sense of SBF, and his biggest critiques of effective altruism

Rob Wiblin speaks with FiveThirtyEight election forecaster and author Nate Silver about his new book: On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.Links to learn more, highlights, video, and full transc...

16 Loka 20241h 57min

#203 – Peter Godfrey-Smith on interfering with wild nature, accepting death, and the origin of complex civilisation

#203 – Peter Godfrey-Smith on interfering with wild nature, accepting death, and the origin of complex civilisation

"In the human case, it would be mistaken to give a kind of hour-by-hour accounting. You know, 'I had +4 level of experience for this hour, then I had -2 for the next hour, and then I had -1' — and you...

3 Loka 20241h 25min

Luisa and Keiran on free will, and the consequences of never feeling enduring guilt or shame

Luisa and Keiran on free will, and the consequences of never feeling enduring guilt or shame

In this episode from our second show, 80k After Hours, Luisa Rodriguez and Keiran Harris chat about the consequences of letting go of enduring guilt, shame, anger, and pride.Links to learn more, highl...

27 Syys 20241h 36min

#202 – Venki Ramakrishnan on the cutting edge of anti-ageing science

#202 – Venki Ramakrishnan on the cutting edge of anti-ageing science

"For every far-out idea that turns out to be true, there were probably hundreds that were simply crackpot ideas. In general, [science] advances building on the knowledge we have, and seeing what the n...

19 Syys 20242h 20min

#201 – Ken Goldberg on why your robot butler isn’t here yet

#201 – Ken Goldberg on why your robot butler isn’t here yet

"Perception is quite difficult with cameras: even if you have a stereo camera, you still can’t really build a map of where everything is in space. It’s just very difficult. And I know that sounds surp...

13 Syys 20242h 1min

#200 – Ezra Karger on what superforecasters and experts think about existential risks

#200 – Ezra Karger on what superforecasters and experts think about existential risks

"It’s very hard to find examples where people say, 'I’m starting from this point. I’m starting from this belief.' So we wanted to make that very legible to people. We wanted to say, 'Experts think thi...

4 Syys 20242h 49min

#199 – Nathan Calvin on California’s AI bill SB 1047 and its potential to shape US AI policy

#199 – Nathan Calvin on California’s AI bill SB 1047 and its potential to shape US AI policy

"I do think that there is a really significant sentiment among parts of the opposition that it’s not really just that this bill itself is that bad or extreme — when you really drill into it, it feels ...

29 Elo 20241h 12min

Suosittua kategoriassa Koulutus

rss-murhan-anatomia
psykopodiaa-podcast
voi-hyvin-meditaatiot-2
rss-narsisti
rss-liian-kuuma-peruna
rss-vapaudu-voimaasi
dear-ladies
aamukahvilla
psykologia
leveli
kesken
ihminen-tavattavissa-tommy-hellsten-instituutti
rss-uskonto-on-tylsaa
rss-duodecim-lehti
rss-valo-minussa-2
rahapuhetta
adhd-podi
rss-tietoinen-yhteys-podcast-2
rss-hereilla
rss-xamk-podcast