Top Traders Unplugged22 Maalis 2025

SI340: ETFs, Size, and the Commodity Problem ft. Alan Dunne

In today’s episode, Alan Dunne and I take a step back - and a step forward - by exploring 125 years of hard-earned market wisdom, courtesy of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, the definitive source of long-term asset class performance. What does this rich dataset tell us about equities, bonds, diversification, and the underrated role of patience in investing? And how relevant are these lessons for investors navigating today’s high-concentration markets, stubborn inflation, and the potential cracks in the classic 60/40 portfolio?

But that’s not all - we also dive into one of the most overlooked challenges facing systematic trend followers today: capacity constraints, especially in commodities. Drawing on Quantica’s latest research, we examine why commodities have historically been critical to CTA performance, how liquidity limits silently erode returns as strategies scale, and why the explosive growth of trend following ETFs may come at a hidden cost investors rarely see.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:41 - What has caught our attention recently?

04:14 - A new era for Germany?

10:02 - The ETF space is on fire

11:21 - The Nordic countries are on a roll

12:18 - Dunne's global macro perspective

21:39 - Industry performance update

27:07 - An analysis of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook

34:29 - Why are expected returns so far off real returns in the Pension Fund space?

41:07 - The cycle of returns

46:07 - When trend following hits capacity

53:56 - Why Niels is concerned about new replication products

58:52 - Can trading few markets actually provide more diversification than trading many markets?

01:03:40 - What is up for next week?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

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Jaksot(929)

GM97: Why Isn’t Anything Breaking? ft. Steen Jakobsen

The global order is shifting in plain sight. In this Global Macro conversation, Steen Jakobsen, inventor of the Outrages Predictions, joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne to examine the slow gri...

18 Helmi 53min

SI387: The Cost-Benefit of Being Trendy ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel

Today, we examine a year that looked chaotic but felt familiar to trend followers. Gold surged, equities rotated globally, and non-US markets quietly gained momentum. Yet beneath strong returns lies a...

14 Helmi 1h 13min

GM96: The End of the Hedge: When Bonds Stop Protecting Portfolios

A familiar portfolio map is being redrawn. Ian Harnett traces the regime shift from disinflation and reliable bond hedges to a world where inflation pressures linger, supply chains shorten, and capita...

11 Helmi 1h 1min

SI386: When Position Sizing Saves You ft. Rob Carver

Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver’s sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case ...

7 Helmi 1h 8min

UGO09: Playing the Players in a Narrative Market ft. Ben Hunt

Cem Karsan sits down with Ben Hunt, founder of Epsilon Theory, to explore how narratives shape markets, politics, and decision making itself. Drawing on decades of experience across academia, hedge fu...

4 Helmi 1h 1min

SI385: When Volatility Becomes the Signal ft. Katy Kaminski

Katy Kaminski joins us to assess the early signals shaping markets in 2026. The conversation explores the resurgence of commodity trends, the role of volatility estimation, and why diversification acr...

31 Tammi 1h 4min

GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins

In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and F...

28 Tammi 1h 3min

SI384: Building an Inflation-Proof Portfolio ft. Yoav Git

In this episode, Niels hosts Yoav Git to explore inflation risk, bond fragility, and the changing role of trend following in a world defined by supply shocks and declining trust. Drawing on recent res...

24 Tammi 1h 1min