Why a Mar-a-Lago Accord to weaken the dollar could be an act of self-harm
ING THINK aloud26 Maalis

Why a Mar-a-Lago Accord to weaken the dollar could be an act of self-harm

The root cause of America's economic imbalances can be traced to a single factor: the strength of the US dollar. At least, that’s the view of Stephen Miran, President Trump’s newly appointed Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors.

In an essay published late last year, Miran argued that the dollar's strength, driven by inelastic demand for Treasuries and the dollar’s status as a global reserve currency, has resulted in persistently cheap imports, reduced the competitiveness of its exports, eroded US manufacturing, and resulted in soaring deficits.

His answer to this problem is a so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord, where trading partners would sell dollars and US Treasuries from their FX reserves or face higher tariffs and the removal of security guarantees.

But is an overvalued dollar really to blame for America’s financial problems? Would trading partners agree to the plan? And what could it mean for the US markets?

In this podcast, ING’s Chris Turner and Padhraic Garvey explain why they think the plan would be counterproductive and fraught with risk.

Jaksot(123)

Hiking into a banking crisis

Hiking into a banking crisis

As two more regional US lenders - PacWest and Western Alliance - saw their share prices collapse this week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again but hinted that this may be the peak of the tightening cycle. In this podcast, ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley explains why he expects the Fed to reverse course "very quickly and very sharply" while ING's Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski discusses what this could all mean for Europe.

5 Touko 202321min

Emerging markets: Resilience amid uncertainty

Emerging markets: Resilience amid uncertainty

With soaring public debt since the Covid pandemic and much higher debt servicing costs after aggressive rate hikes around the world, emerging markets remain a risky proposition. Some countries, like Zambia, Ghana, and Sri Lanka have already defaulted. The IMF has revised down its forecasts for EM economies in recent months, and the global impact of the recent banking crisis in the US and Europe is not yet known. Yet, ING’s sovereign debt strategist James Wilson sees value in the developing world. In this podcast, he explains why.

19 Huhti 202312min

Constructive on credit

Constructive on credit

In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Sector Research Jeroen van den Broek and Credit Strategist Tim Rahill discuss how the recent turmoil in the banking sector has impacted the credit market and why they remain constructive on the outlook for corporate bonds in 2023.

31 Maalis 202317min

Price stability vs financial stability

Price stability vs financial stability

In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey and Antoine Bouvet discuss the latest central bank decisions to raise interest rates despite recent turmoil in the banking sector.

23 Maalis 202312min

Higher for longer

Higher for longer

In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss where interest rates may be heading in the US, Europe and UK while Chris Turner explains what this could all mean for global markets.

10 Maalis 202327min

Ukraine war, one year on

Ukraine war, one year on

One year after Russia’s devastating invasion of Ukraine, Europe is still learning to adapt to the new economic reality. In this podcast, ING’s Warren Patterson, Peter Vanden Houte and Chris Turner discuss the short- and long-term implications of the war for energy supplies, the economy and global financial markets.

24 Helmi 202327min

Are we there yet?

Are we there yet?

In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski and James Smith discuss whether interest rates in the US and Europe are close to a peak, what this could mean for the global economy and whether rate cuts could be in the offing this year.

3 Helmi 202327min

What to expect from commodity markets in 2023

What to expect from commodity markets in 2023

Global commodity markets have swung wildly this year, and the volatility may be set to continue into 2023. While Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent prices surging earlier in the year on concern that supply would be disrupted, worries about demand have since become the main driving force, with Brent crude falling below $80 a barrel this week for the first time since January. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey discuss what they expect from the market next year.

7 Joulu 202215min

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