What Nate Silver's learned about forecasting elections

What Nate Silver's learned about forecasting elections

This close to an election, who do I want to hear from? Nate Silver, of course. I sat down with the FiveThirtyEight founder and math wizard to talk about how he builds his forecasting models, what they’re saying about 2018, how big the Democrats’ structural disadvantage in the House and Senate really is, whether there's a purpose to predicting election outcomes, which campaign reporters he reads, and whether Trump is the favorite for 2020. Silver and I also share the experience of building journalism outlets trying to do things a bit differently over the past five years, so we discuss what he’s learned along the way, what he wishes he knew at the beginning, and how he hires. Silver brings unusual clarity and rigor to the topics he focuses on, and right now, given the speed and intensity of the elections news cycle, a bit of rigor is a welcome thing. Enjoy! Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman Bad Blood by John Carreyrou Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Award-winning chef José Andrés on cooking, creativity, and learning from the best

Award-winning chef José Andrés on cooking, creativity, and learning from the best

José Andrés isn't just a chef. He's a force. All that talk of how DC is now a hot dining scene? Andrés deserves more than a bit of the credit. He's popularized Spanish tapas through Jaleo, brought El ...

29 Marras 20161h 30min

Heather McGhee returns to talk Trump, race, and empathy

Heather McGhee returns to talk Trump, race, and empathy

There are few episodes of this show that people loved as much as my conversation with Heather McGhee, president of the think tank Demos. Our first discussion focused on race, class, populism, and the ...

22 Marras 20161h 3min

Ron Brownstein: Clinton didn’t lose because of the white working class

Ron Brownstein: Clinton didn’t lose because of the white working class

Why did Hillary Clinton lose the election? Why did Donald Trump win it? And why was the polling so completely wrong?No one digs deeper into the demographics, polls, and trends of modern American polit...

15 Marras 20161h 7min

David Frum on the 2016 election, and the long decline of the GOP

David Frum on the 2016 election, and the long decline of the GOP

We’re bringing the Ezra Klein Show to you a little early this week because, well, there's an election coming in a few days. And we wanted to talk about it. The 2016 election is the product of profound...

6 Marras 20161h 35min

Deborah Tannen on gendered speech, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and you

Deborah Tannen on gendered speech, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and you

To understand the 2012 election, you had to ask a political scientist. To understand the 2016 election, you need to call a linguist.At least, I did. Deborah Tannen is a Georgetown University linguist ...

1 Marras 20161h 33min

Joseph Stiglitz on broken markets, bad trade deals, and basic incomes

Joseph Stiglitz on broken markets, bad trade deals, and basic incomes

This week’s guest is a Nobel Prize winner. We like to sprinkle those in every so often. Joseph Stiglitz revolutionized how economists understood market failures (hence that prize), served as chief eco...

25 Loka 20161h 9min

Let's talk about Hillary Clinton's policy ideas, with Jonathan Cohn

Let's talk about Hillary Clinton's policy ideas, with Jonathan Cohn

The overwhelming focus of this election has been Donald Trump — the things he does, says, tweets. But the next president is likely to be Hillary Clinton. And we've put a lot less effort into understan...

18 Loka 20161h 13min

Francis Fukuyama on whether America's democracy is decaying

Francis Fukuyama on whether America's democracy is decaying

Francis Fukuyama is a political scientist, a public intellectual, and progenitor of the famed "End of History" thesis. But his recent work is his most important yet. Over two volumes, he's been studyi...

11 Loka 20161h 11min

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