What Nate Silver's learned about forecasting elections

What Nate Silver's learned about forecasting elections

This close to an election, who do I want to hear from? Nate Silver, of course. I sat down with the FiveThirtyEight founder and math wizard to talk about how he builds his forecasting models, what they’re saying about 2018, how big the Democrats’ structural disadvantage in the House and Senate really is, whether there's a purpose to predicting election outcomes, which campaign reporters he reads, and whether Trump is the favorite for 2020. Silver and I also share the experience of building journalism outlets trying to do things a bit differently over the past five years, so we discuss what he’s learned along the way, what he wishes he knew at the beginning, and how he hires. Silver brings unusual clarity and rigor to the topics he focuses on, and right now, given the speed and intensity of the elections news cycle, a bit of rigor is a welcome thing. Enjoy! Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman Bad Blood by John Carreyrou Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Tyler Cowen interviews Ezra Klein about politics, media, and more

Tyler Cowen interviews Ezra Klein about politics, media, and more

A number of you have asked that we turn the tables and have someone interview me for the show. So when Tyler Cowen — economist at George Mason University, blogger at Marginal Revolution, and generaliz...

6 Loka 20161h 16min

The best conversation I’ve had about the election, with Molly Ball

The best conversation I’ve had about the election, with Molly Ball

This election season has left pretty much everything I thought I knew about politics in doubt. Both parties nominated unpopular candidates, even when they had popular alternatives. One party's nominee...

4 Loka 20161h 12min

HHS Secretary Sylvia Matthews Burwell on running Obamacare, Medicare, and Medicaid

HHS Secretary Sylvia Matthews Burwell on running Obamacare, Medicare, and Medicaid

This week, I've turned over the mic to The Weeds' Sarah Kliff. She went to Capitol Hill to interview HHS Secretary Sylvia Burwell about all things healthcare. They talked about how to pay doctors to p...

27 Syys 201646min

Dr. Leana Wen on why the opposite of poverty is health

Dr. Leana Wen on why the opposite of poverty is health

There are a couple of ideas that drive how I see policy and politics. One of them is that most of what drives health outcomes has nothing to do with what happens in doctor's offices. Another is that w...

20 Syys 20161h 40min

Arlie Hochschild on how America feels to Trump supporters

Arlie Hochschild on how America feels to Trump supporters

I’ve been reading sociologist Arlie Hochschild’s writing for about a decade now. Her immersive projects have revolutionized how we understand labor, gender equity, and work-life balance. But her lates...

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Stewart Butterfield on creating Slack, learning from games, and finding your online identity

Stewart Butterfield on creating Slack, learning from games, and finding your online identity

If you came by the Vox office, you would find it oddly quiet. That's not because we don't like each other, or because we're not social, or because we don't have anything to say. It's because almost al...

6 Syys 20161h 34min

W. Kamau Bell on the lessons of parenthood, Twitter, and fame

W. Kamau Bell on the lessons of parenthood, Twitter, and fame

W. Kamau Bell is a comedian and a writer. But you probably know him from one of his podcasts(Denzel Washington Is The Greatest Actor Of All Time Period and Politically Re-Active) or his CNN show The U...

30 Elo 20161h 31min

Malcolm Gladwell on the danger of joining consensus opinions

Malcolm Gladwell on the danger of joining consensus opinions

Malcolm Gladwell needs no introduction (though if you didn't know the famed author has launched a podcast, you should — it's called Revisionist History, and it's great.).Gladwell's work has become so ...

23 Elo 20161h 33min

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