What Nate Silver's learned about forecasting elections

What Nate Silver's learned about forecasting elections

This close to an election, who do I want to hear from? Nate Silver, of course. I sat down with the FiveThirtyEight founder and math wizard to talk about how he builds his forecasting models, what they’re saying about 2018, how big the Democrats’ structural disadvantage in the House and Senate really is, whether there's a purpose to predicting election outcomes, which campaign reporters he reads, and whether Trump is the favorite for 2020. Silver and I also share the experience of building journalism outlets trying to do things a bit differently over the past five years, so we discuss what he’s learned along the way, what he wishes he knew at the beginning, and how he hires. Silver brings unusual clarity and rigor to the topics he focuses on, and right now, given the speed and intensity of the elections news cycle, a bit of rigor is a welcome thing. Enjoy! Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman Bad Blood by John Carreyrou Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Grant Gordon on studying the world's worst conflicts

Grant Gordon on studying the world's worst conflicts

Grant Gordon is a political scientist and policymaker who specializes in humanitarian intervention. He’s a fellow at the Stanford Center on International Conflict and Negotiation, and has worked on hu...

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Melissa Bell on starting Vox, managing media, and connecting newsrooms

Melissa Bell on starting Vox, managing media, and connecting newsrooms

I first started working with Melissa Bell at the Washington Post. I was trying to launch a new product — Wonkblog — and I needed some design work done. Melissa wasn't a designer. She wasn't a coder. S...

9 Elo 20161h 23min

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Trevor Noah, host of The Daily Show

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This is a serious conversation with a very funny man.Trevor Noah is the host of Comedy Central's the Daily Show. He's also a stand-up comic who grew up in apartheid South Africa, the son of a black mo...

26 Heinä 20161h 16min

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Yuval Levin has been called "the most influential conservative intellectual of the Obama era," and the moniker fits. As editor of National Affairs — in my opinion, the best policy journal going on the...

19 Heinä 20161h 17min

Hillary Clinton. Yes, that Hillary Clinton.

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My interview this week is with Hillary Clinton. You may have heard of her.I won't bore you with Clinton's bio. Instead, I want to say a few words about what this interview is, as it's a bit different ...

12 Heinä 201647min

Patrick Brown on plant-meat that bleeds and the science of flavor

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Not long ago, I had the chance to eat a burger from a company called Impossible Foods. The burger was delicious. It was juicy, savory, and bloody. Oh, and it was made from plants.Yes, they've created ...

5 Heinä 201645min

Heather McGhee on what Democrats get wrong about racism

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Heather McGhee is the president of the think tank Demos, and one of the most interesting thinkers today on the intersection of racism and economic inequality.Among Heather's most interesting arguments...

28 Kesä 20161h 17min

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