Are we facing a low growth future? - Part 1
Grattan Institute26 Syys 2017

Are we facing a low growth future? - Part 1

One of the big policy debates in Australia and around the world right now is whether economic growth will be slower in the future than in the past. Nearly a decade after the Global Financial Crisis and economic growth remains weak in many rich nations. Australia has been an exception to the malaise, but growth has slowed as the mining boom winds down. A growing number of voices are wondering whether we’ve entered a “new normal” of slower economic growth, which would have big implications for Australians’ future living standards, our public policy choices and the state of our politics. In part 1 of this two-episode podcast, with the help of Australian Perspectives Fellow Brendan Coates and Productivity Growth Director Jim Minifie, we take a deep dive into the evidence that economic growth may be slower in the future and what might explain it. Stay tuned for part 2 where we will discuss what policymakers could do in response. Further readings To help listeners navigate the debate, below are a few references cited in the podcast discussion. Cardiff Garcia, Productivity and innovation stagnation, past and future, FT Alphachat, 2016 [warning: paywall]. A great overview of all the various explanations of why productivity growth has slowed (with hyperlinks). https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/03/11/2155269/productivity-and-innovation-stagnation-past-and-future-an-epic-compendium-of-recent-views Jim Minifie, Stagnation nation, Grattan Institute, 2017. Is Australia at risk of economic stagnation as the mining investment boom fades? While the decline in business investment is no cause for panic, policymakers must do more to ensure we remain a dynamic, growing economy. https://grattan.edu.au/report/stagnation-nation Lukasz Rachel and Thomas D Smith (Bank of England), Secular drivers of the global real interest rate, Bank of England, 2015. Real interest rates, both globally and in Australia, have declined sharply over the past 30 years. Population ageing, rising inequality, slower future global growth and a global glut of savings by emerging market governments (among other factors), have pushed down real interest rates. The authors conclude most of these forces will persist, which could leave real interest rates as low as one per cent for the foreseeable future. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2015/swp571.pdf Robert Gordon, The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The US Standard of Living since the Civil War, 2016 Robert Gordon’s weighty tome is the most prominent of the wave of economists warning that economic growth will be slower in future. But rather than reading the 750 pages of Gordon’s book, check out this review by The Economist instead. https://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21685437-why-economic-growth-soared-america-early-20th-century-and-why-it-wont-be

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Budget 2018 - the verdict

Budget 2018 - the verdict

A conversation with Budget Policy and Institutional Reform Program Director, Danielle Wood and Fellow, Brendan Coates discussing this years budget announcements. Also featuring Transport Program Director, Marion Terrill and Higher Education Program Director, Andrew Norton.

17 Touko 201844min

Energy Futures Seminar: National Energy Guarantee –What happens next? – Sydney

Energy Futures Seminar: National Energy Guarantee –What happens next? – Sydney

Event Podcast: At this Energy Futures Seminar, ESB Chair, Kerry Schott, Grattan Institute’s Tony Wood and Tim Nelson from AGL as they explained, discussed and debated these issues. The Forum was moderated by Jennifer Hewett from the Australian Financial Review and was hosted by the Melbourne Energy Institute, Grattan Institute and the State Library of New South Wales.

16 Touko 20181h 33min

Australian retirement incomes: do we have a problem? – Melbourne

Australian retirement incomes: do we have a problem? – Melbourne

Event podcast: At this Policy Pitch event, the panel looked at how current generations are faring in retirement, and what kind of retirement we can all expect in the future. They discussed the policy levers such as the Super Guarantee, superannuation draw-down rules, retirement ages, and the level and means testing of the Age Pension. And they explored the trade-offs that these involve for spending before retirement and for government budgets.

15 Touko 20181h 17min

Gonski 2.0 - next steps to success

Gonski 2.0 - next steps to success

A conversation with School Education Fellow Julie Sonnemann. Following the release of the recommendations from the Review to Achieve Educational Excellence in Australian Schools, we ask what Gonski 2.0 has found, why it has received a cold reception among some in the industry and how the implementation of Gonski’s findings should be managed. Links to research discussed in this podcast: Goss, P., Sonnemann, J., Griffiths, K., and Chivers, C., 2016, Circuit breaker: a new compact for school funding, Grattan Institute: https://grattan.edu.au/report/circuit-breaker/

9 Touko 201819min

Gonski 2.0: What Commonwealth should do (and not do) to drive improvement in school ed – Brisbane

Gonski 2.0: What Commonwealth should do (and not do) to drive improvement in school ed – Brisbane

Event podcast: In this State of Affairs event, Julie Sonnemann, Grattan Institute School Education Fellow, along with a panel of leading policy thinkers explored: What is needed to lift educational outcomes at scale; what are the benefits, challenges and risks of Commonwealth interventions; and, where should the Commonwealth focus its efforts, and why?

2 Touko 20181h 20min

Dropping out: the benefits and costs of trying university

Dropping out: the benefits and costs of trying university

A conversation with Higher Education Fellow, Ittima Cherastidtham. More than 50,000 students who started university in Australia this year will drop out. Part-time students are particularly at risk. Policy makers should do more to reduce the number of young people who leave university with nothing but debt and regret. Read the report: https://grattan.edu.au/report/dropping-out/

29 Huhti 201824min

Understanding Labor’s dividend imputation reforms

Understanding Labor’s dividend imputation reforms

A conversation with Budget Policy and Institutional Reform Program Director, Danielle Wood and Australian Perspectives Fellow, Brendan Coates. The announcement of Labor’s plan to abolish refunds of unused imputation credits for retirees in late March sparked significant confusion in the media, and in turn many Australians, about the economic effects and who would actually pay. Danielle and Brendan cut through this debate and shed some light on exactly what this policy will mean and who it will impact. Links to research discussed in this podcast: Brendan Coates and Danielle Wood, The real story of Labor’s dividend imputation reforms, published by Inside Story, March 2018 https://grattan.edu.au/news/the-real-story-of-labors-dividend-imputation-reforms/ Daley, J., Coates, B., Young, W., and Parsonage, H., Age of entitlement: age-based tax breaks, 2016, Grattan Institute https://grattan.edu.au/report/age-of-entitlement/ Daley, J., Coates, B., Wood, D., and Parsonage, H., 2015, Super tax targeting, Grattan Institute https://grattan.edu.au/report/super-tax-targeting/

24 Huhti 201831min

Safer care saves money - Melbourne

Safer care saves money - Melbourne

Event podcast: In this Policy Pitch event, Stephen Duckett, Health Program Director at Grattan Institute presented data on the costs of complication rates and potential new strategies to reduce adverse events. He was joined by Associate Professor Jill Sewell, chair of the Victorian Clinical Council and Dr Linda Swan, Chief Medical Officer for Medibank to discuss how strategies might work in the public and private sectors.

17 Huhti 20181h 24min

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