Are we facing a low growth future? - Part 1
Grattan Institute26 Syys 2017

Are we facing a low growth future? - Part 1

One of the big policy debates in Australia and around the world right now is whether economic growth will be slower in the future than in the past. Nearly a decade after the Global Financial Crisis and economic growth remains weak in many rich nations. Australia has been an exception to the malaise, but growth has slowed as the mining boom winds down. A growing number of voices are wondering whether we’ve entered a “new normal” of slower economic growth, which would have big implications for Australians’ future living standards, our public policy choices and the state of our politics. In part 1 of this two-episode podcast, with the help of Australian Perspectives Fellow Brendan Coates and Productivity Growth Director Jim Minifie, we take a deep dive into the evidence that economic growth may be slower in the future and what might explain it. Stay tuned for part 2 where we will discuss what policymakers could do in response. Further readings To help listeners navigate the debate, below are a few references cited in the podcast discussion. Cardiff Garcia, Productivity and innovation stagnation, past and future, FT Alphachat, 2016 [warning: paywall]. A great overview of all the various explanations of why productivity growth has slowed (with hyperlinks). https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/03/11/2155269/productivity-and-innovation-stagnation-past-and-future-an-epic-compendium-of-recent-views Jim Minifie, Stagnation nation, Grattan Institute, 2017. Is Australia at risk of economic stagnation as the mining investment boom fades? While the decline in business investment is no cause for panic, policymakers must do more to ensure we remain a dynamic, growing economy. https://grattan.edu.au/report/stagnation-nation Lukasz Rachel and Thomas D Smith (Bank of England), Secular drivers of the global real interest rate, Bank of England, 2015. Real interest rates, both globally and in Australia, have declined sharply over the past 30 years. Population ageing, rising inequality, slower future global growth and a global glut of savings by emerging market governments (among other factors), have pushed down real interest rates. The authors conclude most of these forces will persist, which could leave real interest rates as low as one per cent for the foreseeable future. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2015/swp571.pdf Robert Gordon, The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The US Standard of Living since the Civil War, 2016 Robert Gordon’s weighty tome is the most prominent of the wave of economists warning that economic growth will be slower in future. But rather than reading the 750 pages of Gordon’s book, check out this review by The Economist instead. https://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21685437-why-economic-growth-soared-america-early-20th-century-and-why-it-wont-be

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Energy Futures Seminar: What does a truly sustainable electricity network look like? – Melbourne

Energy Futures Seminar: What does a truly sustainable electricity network look like? – Melbourne

Event podcast: Electricity network costs continue to be an area of significant focus for consumers, government, regulators and media, as well as network businesses themselves. In some cases, claims have been made that network prices are paying for investments the value of which has since been questioned. Experts from Grattan Institute, Powerlink and the Melbourne Energy Institute debated and explored these challenges in this first of our Energy Future Series for 2018.

11 Huhti 20181h 35min

A deep dive on the RBA's latest research on housing

A deep dive on the RBA's latest research on housing

A conversation with Australian Perspectives Fellow, Brendan Coates. In early March, economists Ross Kendall and Peter Tulip from the Reserve Bank of Australia released The Effect of Zoning on Housing Prices. In this podcast, Brendan discusses the findings from the paper and the subsequent reactions to it. Links to research discussed in this podcast: Ross Kendall and Peter Tulip, The Effect of Zoning on Housing Prices, March 2018 https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2018/pdf/rdp2018-03.pdf John Daley, Brendan Coates and Trent Wiltshire, RBA research shows that zoning restrictions are driving up housing prices, published in The Conversation, 8 March 2018 https://grattan.edu.au/news/rba-research-shows-that-zoning-restrictions-are-driving-up-housing-prices/

3 Huhti 201827min

Down to the wire: A sustainable electricity network for Australia

Down to the wire: A sustainable electricity network for Australia

A conversation with Grattan Senior Associate, Kate Griffiths. State governments have spent up to $20 billion more than was needed on the electricity grid. Customers are paying up to $400 more for their power each year than they should. They should get a rebate, or governments should write down the value of the assets to reduce electricity bills.

26 Maalis 201824min

A crisis of trust: The rise of protest politics in Australia

A crisis of trust: The rise of protest politics in Australia

A conversation with Budget Policy and Institutional Reform Program Director, Danielle Wood and Associate Carmela Chivers. Protest politics is on the rise in Australia, and the main cause is collapsing trust in politicians and the major parties. If the major parties and politicians want to rebuild trust with voters, they'll need to change the way they do politics. Read the report: https://grattan.edu.au/report/a-crisis-of-trust/

15 Maalis 201831min

Innovation policy in Australia: never a better time? – Melbourne

Innovation policy in Australia: never a better time? – Melbourne

Event Recording: Innovation and Science Australia has just released its plan for Australia’s innovation, science and research system, Australia 2030: Prosperity through Innovation. How big is the opportunity for Australia? Who really benefits from rapid innovation? Should policymakers follow ISA’s recommendations? At this Policy Pitch event, a panel that included the authors of the report used these questions to form the basis for an engaging discussion on innovation policy.

13 Maalis 20181h 18min

What’s the best way to close the gender gap in retirement incomes?

What’s the best way to close the gender gap in retirement incomes?

A conversation with Australian Perspectives Fellow, Brendan Coates. Australia’s retirement income system is not working for the poorest Australians, who are disproportionately women. Australia has a persistent gender gap in retirement savings and incomes. This means that women, particularly single women, are at greater risk of poverty, housing stress and homelessness in retirement.

7 Maalis 201833min

Innovation policy in Australia: never a better time? – Sydney

Innovation policy in Australia: never a better time? – Sydney

Event podcast: Innovation and Science Australia has just released its plan for Australia’s innovation, science and research system, Australia 2030: Prosperity through Innovation. How big is the opportunity for Australia? Who really benefits from rapid innovation? Should policymakers follow ISA’s recommendations? At this Forward Thinking event, a panel that included the authors of the report used these questions to form the basis for an engaging discussion on innovation policy

6 Maalis 20181h 21min

Housing affordability: re-imagining the Australian dream

Housing affordability: re-imagining the Australian dream

A conversation with Grattan CEO, John Daley and Australian Perspectives Fellow Brendan Coates about their latest report. Low interest rates, policy changes and restrictive planning have doubled house prices in 20 years. It's time for governments to open the gate to more housing and stem rising public anxiety about housing affordability.

4 Maalis 20181h 13min

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