Are we facing a low growth future? - Part 1
Grattan Institute26 Syys 2017

Are we facing a low growth future? - Part 1

One of the big policy debates in Australia and around the world right now is whether economic growth will be slower in the future than in the past. Nearly a decade after the Global Financial Crisis and economic growth remains weak in many rich nations. Australia has been an exception to the malaise, but growth has slowed as the mining boom winds down. A growing number of voices are wondering whether we’ve entered a “new normal” of slower economic growth, which would have big implications for Australians’ future living standards, our public policy choices and the state of our politics. In part 1 of this two-episode podcast, with the help of Australian Perspectives Fellow Brendan Coates and Productivity Growth Director Jim Minifie, we take a deep dive into the evidence that economic growth may be slower in the future and what might explain it. Stay tuned for part 2 where we will discuss what policymakers could do in response. Further readings To help listeners navigate the debate, below are a few references cited in the podcast discussion. Cardiff Garcia, Productivity and innovation stagnation, past and future, FT Alphachat, 2016 [warning: paywall]. A great overview of all the various explanations of why productivity growth has slowed (with hyperlinks). https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/03/11/2155269/productivity-and-innovation-stagnation-past-and-future-an-epic-compendium-of-recent-views Jim Minifie, Stagnation nation, Grattan Institute, 2017. Is Australia at risk of economic stagnation as the mining investment boom fades? While the decline in business investment is no cause for panic, policymakers must do more to ensure we remain a dynamic, growing economy. https://grattan.edu.au/report/stagnation-nation Lukasz Rachel and Thomas D Smith (Bank of England), Secular drivers of the global real interest rate, Bank of England, 2015. Real interest rates, both globally and in Australia, have declined sharply over the past 30 years. Population ageing, rising inequality, slower future global growth and a global glut of savings by emerging market governments (among other factors), have pushed down real interest rates. The authors conclude most of these forces will persist, which could leave real interest rates as low as one per cent for the foreseeable future. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2015/swp571.pdf Robert Gordon, The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The US Standard of Living since the Civil War, 2016 Robert Gordon’s weighty tome is the most prominent of the wave of economists warning that economic growth will be slower in future. But rather than reading the 750 pages of Gordon’s book, check out this review by The Economist instead. https://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21685437-why-economic-growth-soared-america-early-20th-century-and-why-it-wont-be

Jaksot(316)

Will this bill get the NDIS back on track?

Will this bill get the NDIS back on track?

The future of the NDIS – Australia’s world-leading scheme to support people with disability – is in doubt because the costs are exploding. Now the federal government is acting. The Getting the NDIS Back on Track Bill proposes a massive overhaul of the National Disability Insurance Scheme, in order to rein in costs and provide greater clarity on program delivery. While the bill has been pitched as an improvement to access, program sustainability, and protections from unethical practices, many people with disabilities are concerned about whether their support will be continued, and if they are still eligible for the program. Disability Program experts Sam Bennett and Hannah Orban are joined by host Kat Clay, to discuss how the proposed changes will affect the NDIS. More information on the Bill from the NDIS: https://www.ndis.gov.au/news/9975-getting-ndis-back-track Sam Bennett and Hannah Orban assess the Bill: https://grattan.edu.au/news/battle-to-save-the-ndis-has-begun/ Full transcript of the podcast: https://grattan.edu.au/news/will-this-bill-get-the-ndis-back-on-track/

15 Huhti 202425min

Is Australia running out of gas?

Is Australia running out of gas?

The Australian Energy Market Operator has published its annual Gas Statement of Opportunities report. The report forecasts difficult times ahead for Australia’s east coast gas market, with a risk of shortfalls on peak demand days in 2025 and seasonal supply gaps from 2026. So, is Australia running out of gas? At the household level, people are concerned about keeping the heater going and the cooktop on. In the bigger picture, governments and industry are grappling with a complex change from fossil fuels to renewable energy. In this new Grattan Podcast, host Kat Clay talks to our energy expert Alison Reeve about whether Australia can expect gas shortfalls in the future, and where the responsibility lies for avoiding – or at least managing – these potential outages. Read the reports mentioned in the podcast: AEMO's Gas Statement of Opportunities report https://buff.ly/4cyw9bB Getting off Gas Grattan report: https://buff.ly/3NdV7RI

25 Maalis 202418min

Why Australia should trial multi-school organisations

Why Australia should trial multi-school organisations

School principals can make a big impact. A highly effective principal can raise student achievement by up to seven months a year for a typical student, and even more for a disadvantaged student. But running a school well is a difficult job-just ask any principal. Schools are complex organisations. The average secondary school principal manages a budget of more than $15 million, which is more than the turnover of 98 per cent of Australian businesses. And Australia expects each one of its schools to provide an excellent education for every child. But governments have radically underestimated how hard this is for schools to achieve. The result is that schools often feel poorly supported in their work. Our latest education report, Spreading success: Why Australia should trial multi-school organisations, delves into the question of how we best support schools to improve. This podcast discusses the new report with authors Jordana Hunter, Amy Haywood, and Nick Parkinson. Read the report: https://grattan.edu.au/report/spreading-success-why-australia-should-trial-multi-school-organisations/

17 Maalis 202421min

Australia's gender pay gap revealed

Australia's gender pay gap revealed

The release of Australian gender pay gap data by the Workplace Gender Equality Agency has highlighted the big discrepancies in women's salaries, the absence of women in traditionally male dominated industries, and the lack of women in senior management of many major businesses. But while the release of this data has sparked a national discussion on why women are often paid less, there's more nuance to this story than what first appears. Equity expert Natasha Bradshaw breaks down what the gender pay gap data shows, and what we can expect next in light of these revelations. Hosted by Kat Clay. Helpful links WGEA Data Explorer https://t.co/IKTGpk7mEE WGEA Gender Pay Gaps Snapshot https://buff.ly/3TkuYEQ WGEA interactive: https://buff.ly/49YnWuW The publication of the gender pay gap is coming. Here's what you need to know - Article by Natasha Bradshaw https://buff.ly/49ZFDKT

4 Maalis 202426min

Is 2024 the year of the renter?

Is 2024 the year of the renter?

Rents keep going up and up, and it doesn't seem like a reprieve is coming any time soon. The Reserve Bank has indicated that rent inflation is likely to remain high over the year ahead, before easing gradually. But with a federal election looming on the horizon, the government will be looking for answers, and fast. Listen to housing experts, Joey Moloney and Esther Suckling, discuss why 2024 might just be the year of the renter with host Kat Clay. Correction: Esther Suckling comments that Victoria, the ACT, South Australia, and Queensland have banned no grounds evictions after the first fixed contract lease. To clarify, SA and the ACT have banned no grounds evictions comprehensively; Victoria has banned them after the first fixed-term lease, and Queensland allows them after every fixed-term lease. Donate to Grattan: https://grattan.edu.au/donate/ Read the article: https://grattan.edu.au/news/2024-year-of-the-renter/

26 Helmi 202430min

Why Australia needs a 'Reading Guarantee'

Why Australia needs a 'Reading Guarantee'

Australia has a reading problem. A third of children can't read proficiently. In the typical Australian school classroom of 24 students, eight can't read well. This has huge flow on effects for their success in life and costs Australia billions of dollars. And the worst thing is, it's preventable. In this podcast, report authors Jordana Hunter and Anika Stobart discuss The Reading Guarantee: How to give every child the best chance for success, and offer a new plan of how to reform reading education in Australia. Read the report: https://grattan.edu.au/report/reading-guarantee/ Transcript available on our website: https://grattan.edu.au/news/why-australia-needs-a-reading-guarantee/

12 Helmi 202423min

Grattan's Summer Series: Micheline Lee on Lifeboat: Disability, Humanity, and the NDIS

Grattan's Summer Series: Micheline Lee on Lifeboat: Disability, Humanity, and the NDIS

Each year Grattan selects its best books of the past 12 months as recommended reading for the Prime Minister and all Australians over the summer holidays. In this summer series, we discuss some of the works on the list with the people who wrote them. In this special podcast, Hannah Orban and Alastair McEwin discuss the Quarterly Essay, Lifeboat: Disability, Humanity, and the NDIS, with author Micheline Lee. The essay explains what it's like to live with disability in Australia, the big improvements that the National Disability Insurance Scheme has brought about, and the challenges that remain in accessing and using the NDIS. Read the essay: https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/lifeboat Read the Prime Minister's Summer Reading List: https://grattan.edu.au/news/prime-ministers-summer-reading-list-2023/

4 Helmi 202428min

The Wonks' List: the best technical policy reads of 2023

The Wonks' List: the best technical policy reads of 2023

In addition to Grattan Institute’s annual Prime Minister’s Summer Reading List, our Wonks’ List highlights some of the year’s best technical policy reads, for anyone who wants to take a deeper dive. In this special podcast, Senior Associate Natasha Bradshaw discusses the Wonks' List with Associate Elizabeth Baldwin and Health Program Director Peter Breadon. Show notes and references The Wonks' List and our rationale: https://grattan.edu.au/news/wonks-list-2023/ Men. Male-biased sex ratios and masculinity norms: evidence from Australia’s colonial past: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10887-023-09223-x Zero-Sum Thinking and the Roots of U.S. Political Divides: https://www.nber.org/papers/w31688 The rise and fall of peer review: https://www.experimental-history.com/p/the-rise-and-fall-of-peer-review Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes and Perinatal Health: A Quasi-Experimental Study: https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(23)00158-7/fulltext Swallow This: Childhood and Adolescent Exposure to Fast Food Restaurants, BMI, and Cognitive Ability: https://www.nber.org/papers/w31226 Social Media and Mental Health: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20211218 Donate to Grattan: https://grattan.edu.au/donate

21 Tammi 202422min

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