Are we facing a low growth future? - Part 1
Grattan Institute26 Syys 2017

Are we facing a low growth future? - Part 1

One of the big policy debates in Australia and around the world right now is whether economic growth will be slower in the future than in the past. Nearly a decade after the Global Financial Crisis and economic growth remains weak in many rich nations. Australia has been an exception to the malaise, but growth has slowed as the mining boom winds down. A growing number of voices are wondering whether we’ve entered a “new normal” of slower economic growth, which would have big implications for Australians’ future living standards, our public policy choices and the state of our politics. In part 1 of this two-episode podcast, with the help of Australian Perspectives Fellow Brendan Coates and Productivity Growth Director Jim Minifie, we take a deep dive into the evidence that economic growth may be slower in the future and what might explain it. Stay tuned for part 2 where we will discuss what policymakers could do in response. Further readings To help listeners navigate the debate, below are a few references cited in the podcast discussion. Cardiff Garcia, Productivity and innovation stagnation, past and future, FT Alphachat, 2016 [warning: paywall]. A great overview of all the various explanations of why productivity growth has slowed (with hyperlinks). https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/03/11/2155269/productivity-and-innovation-stagnation-past-and-future-an-epic-compendium-of-recent-views Jim Minifie, Stagnation nation, Grattan Institute, 2017. Is Australia at risk of economic stagnation as the mining investment boom fades? While the decline in business investment is no cause for panic, policymakers must do more to ensure we remain a dynamic, growing economy. https://grattan.edu.au/report/stagnation-nation Lukasz Rachel and Thomas D Smith (Bank of England), Secular drivers of the global real interest rate, Bank of England, 2015. Real interest rates, both globally and in Australia, have declined sharply over the past 30 years. Population ageing, rising inequality, slower future global growth and a global glut of savings by emerging market governments (among other factors), have pushed down real interest rates. The authors conclude most of these forces will persist, which could leave real interest rates as low as one per cent for the foreseeable future. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2015/swp571.pdf Robert Gordon, The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The US Standard of Living since the Civil War, 2016 Robert Gordon’s weighty tome is the most prominent of the wave of economists warning that economic growth will be slower in future. But rather than reading the 750 pages of Gordon’s book, check out this review by The Economist instead. https://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21685437-why-economic-growth-soared-america-early-20th-century-and-why-it-wont-be

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Grattan's Summer Series: Ellen van Neerven on Personal Score

Grattan's Summer Series: Ellen van Neerven on Personal Score

Each year Grattan selects its best books of the past 12 months as recommended reading for the Prime Minister and all Australians over the summer holidays. In this summer series, we discuss some of the works on the list with the people who wrote them. In this special podcast, award-winning Mununjali author, Ellen Van Neerven, discusses their book Personal Score with Grattan associates Esther Suckling and Dominic Jones. The book is an expansive examination of race, gender and sexuality, told through the lens of playing sport. Read the full Prime Minister’s Summer Reading List: https://grattan.edu.au/news/prime-ministers-summer-reading-list-2023/ Read Personal Score: https://www.uqp.com.au/books/personal-score-sport-culture-identity

14 Tammi 202423min

Grattan's Summer Series: Anna Funder On Wifedom

Grattan's Summer Series: Anna Funder On Wifedom

Each year Grattan selects its best books of the past 12 months as recommended reading for the Prime Minister and all Australians over the summer holidays. In this special summer series, we discuss some of the works on the list with the people who wrote them. In this special podcast, renowned Australian author Anna Funder discusses her literary non-fiction masterpiece, Wifedom. Hosted by Anika Stobart, Senior Associate, and Amy Haywood, Education Deputy Program Director. Read the full Prime Minister's Summer Reading List: https://grattan.edu.au/news/prime-ministers-summer-reading-list-2023/ Purchase Wifedom by Anna Funder: https://www.penguin.com.au/books/wifedom-9780143787112

7 Tammi 202432min

Unpacking the NDIS Review

Unpacking the NDIS Review

The National Disability Insurance Scheme Review has published its final report. The report contains 26 recommendations and 139 actions, many of which relate to creating a unified system of support for people with disability. But does the review go far enough? Is it going to deliver better outcomes for people with disability that rely on the NDIS, while creating a plan to manage spiralling costs? Listen to host Kat Clay, in conversation with Sam Bennett, Disability Program Director, and Hannah Orban, Associate, about what the NDIS review means for disability services in Australia. Read the NDIS review: https://www.ndisreview.gov.au/resources/reports/working-together-deliver-ndis Donate to Grattan: https://grattan.edu.au/donate/

18 Joulu 202325min

What these test results reveal about Australia's education system

What these test results reveal about Australia's education system

Last week, the OECD released the results of the program for international student assessment, better known as PISA. Every three years, hundreds of thousands of 15-year-old students from across the world sit tests in maths, science and reading. But what do the results show for Australia? And are our students doing better, worse, or about the same? Listen to Jordana Hunter, Education Program Director, and Nick Parkinson, Senior Associate, in conversation with host Kat Clay about the test and what the results reveal about Australia's education system.

11 Joulu 202321min

Hydrogen: a golden ticket to net zero?

Hydrogen: a golden ticket to net zero?

From cars to homes to industry, hydrogen has been hyped as an all-encompassing solution to meeting Australia’s emissions targets. But is it the golden ticket to a net-zero future? With the National Hydrogen Strategy under review, it’s time to get truly strategic with hydrogen. Listen to energy experts Alison Reeve and Richard Yan discuss their new report, *Hydrogen: hype, hope, or hard work?*. Read the report: https://grattan.edu.au/report/hydrogen-hype-hope-or-hard-work/ Donate to Grattan: https://grattan.edu.au/donate

3 Joulu 202320min

How to close the vaccination gap

How to close the vaccination gap

Each year, vaccines save thousands of lives. But in the wake of the pandemic, Australians are sick of hearing about vaccination. Amidst the misinformation on the internet and fatigue from government messaging, many of us have become complacent. New Grattan research shows that millions of older Australians at high risk of serious illness are missing out on essential vaccines, and certain groups of people are more likely to miss out than others. Listen to Peter Breadon, Health Program Director, and Ingrid Burfurd, Senior Associate, discuss their new report with host Kat Clay. Read the report: https://grattan.edu.au/report/a-fair-shot-ensuring-all-australians-can-get-the-vaccines-they-need/

26 Marras 202319min

How to fix local roads

How to fix local roads

It's no secret that Australian roads are in a state of disrepair, but it's a lesser known fact that three quarters of our roads are managed by local councils. Many councils are struggling to look after our roads, because they don't have the revenue, the capacity, or the expertise. In this podcast, Natasha Bradshaw, Marion Terrill, and Dominic Jones discuss their latest report, Potholes and Pitfalls, which investigates why local roads are in a state of disrepair and provides a roadmap to fix them. Read the report: https://grattan.edu.au/report/potholes-and-pitfalls-how-to-fix-local-roads/ Donate to Grattan: https://grattan.edu.au/donate/

12 Marras 202316min

Tax Reform In Australia: An Impossible Dream? Danielle Wood's Freebairn Lecture

Tax Reform In Australia: An Impossible Dream? Danielle Wood's Freebairn Lecture

Is tax reform in Australia an impossible dream? Danielle Wood addresses this question in her Freebairn Lecture, given in honour of Professor John Freebairn AO. In this special podcast presentation, she argues that tax reform is essential to rebuild the budget, improve equity, and break down the age segregation in the current tax system. Audio courtesy of the University of Melbourne Faculty of the Business and Economics. Read the full text of the speech: https://grattan.edu.au/news/tax-reform-in-australia-an-impossible-dream/

5 Marras 202351min

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