Are we facing a low growth future? - Part 1
Grattan Institute26 Syys 2017

Are we facing a low growth future? - Part 1

One of the big policy debates in Australia and around the world right now is whether economic growth will be slower in the future than in the past. Nearly a decade after the Global Financial Crisis and economic growth remains weak in many rich nations. Australia has been an exception to the malaise, but growth has slowed as the mining boom winds down. A growing number of voices are wondering whether we’ve entered a “new normal” of slower economic growth, which would have big implications for Australians’ future living standards, our public policy choices and the state of our politics. In part 1 of this two-episode podcast, with the help of Australian Perspectives Fellow Brendan Coates and Productivity Growth Director Jim Minifie, we take a deep dive into the evidence that economic growth may be slower in the future and what might explain it. Stay tuned for part 2 where we will discuss what policymakers could do in response. Further readings To help listeners navigate the debate, below are a few references cited in the podcast discussion. Cardiff Garcia, Productivity and innovation stagnation, past and future, FT Alphachat, 2016 [warning: paywall]. A great overview of all the various explanations of why productivity growth has slowed (with hyperlinks). https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/03/11/2155269/productivity-and-innovation-stagnation-past-and-future-an-epic-compendium-of-recent-views Jim Minifie, Stagnation nation, Grattan Institute, 2017. Is Australia at risk of economic stagnation as the mining investment boom fades? While the decline in business investment is no cause for panic, policymakers must do more to ensure we remain a dynamic, growing economy. https://grattan.edu.au/report/stagnation-nation Lukasz Rachel and Thomas D Smith (Bank of England), Secular drivers of the global real interest rate, Bank of England, 2015. Real interest rates, both globally and in Australia, have declined sharply over the past 30 years. Population ageing, rising inequality, slower future global growth and a global glut of savings by emerging market governments (among other factors), have pushed down real interest rates. The authors conclude most of these forces will persist, which could leave real interest rates as low as one per cent for the foreseeable future. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2015/swp571.pdf Robert Gordon, The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The US Standard of Living since the Civil War, 2016 Robert Gordon’s weighty tome is the most prominent of the wave of economists warning that economic growth will be slower in future. But rather than reading the 750 pages of Gordon’s book, check out this review by The Economist instead. https://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21685437-why-economic-growth-soared-america-early-20th-century-and-why-it-wont-be

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How reducing Australia’s salt intake could save lives - and money

How reducing Australia’s salt intake could save lives - and money

Salt is sneaking into Australian diets, worsening our health outcomes from salt-related diseases. And while Australia has a target to reduce salt intake by 30 per cent by 2030, our food policies lag behind other countries. But are our diets just a matter of personal responsibility? Or does the government have a greater role to play in reducing salt in our diets? Listen to Peter Breadon, Health Program Director, Lachlan Fox, Associate discuss Grattan’s latest report, Sneaky salt: How Australia can shake its salt habit. Hosted by Kat Clay. Read the report: https://grattan.edu.au/report/sneaky-salt/

30 Loka 202320min

Why Claudia Goldin’s Nobel win isn’t just about women in economics

Why Claudia Goldin’s Nobel win isn’t just about women in economics

This month, Claudia Goldin made history for being the third woman to win the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences. As much as this is an outcome to be celebrated as a milestone for women in economics, as an economist, Goldin has shifted the world’s understanding of women’s labour market outcomes. Her influential research examines the reasons for the gender pay gap, and the educational, medical, and cultural progressions which prevent – or enable – women to work. The recent introduction of paid parental leave changes to the House of Representatives is just one way to increase women’s workforce participation in Australia. But are there more ways for Australia to improve economic outcomes for women? This podcast examines Goldin’s research, and what it means for Australia – and especially, Australian women. Helpful links Announcement of Claudia Goldin's Nobel win https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2023/press-release/ Career and Family by Claudia Goldin: https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691201788/career-and-family Greedy jobs, labour market institutions, and the gender pay gap by Kristen Sobeck: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4306651 Children and the Gender Earnings Gap: Evidence for Australia by Elif Bahar, Natasha Bradshaw, Nathan Deutscher and Maxine Montaigne https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-03/p2023-372004.pdf On the Origins of Gender Roles: Women and the Plough https://scholar.harvard.edu/nunn/publications/origins-gender-roles-women-and-plough

23 Loka 202326min

Reforming international student visa pathways after graduation

Reforming international student visa pathways after graduation

Australia faces stiff competition to attract the best students to study and stay in Australia. But a growing cohort of international students are being left behind on temporary visas, struggling to pursue their chosen careers. Grattan's latest report, Graduates in limbo: International student visa pathways after graduation, shows how government can fix visa pathways to give talented graduates a chance to shine, without offering false hope to students. Associate Tyler Reysenbach, is joined by Program Director Brendan Coates and Deputy Program Director Trent Wiltshire, to talk about what the federal government can do to reform the graduate visa system. Read the report: https://grattan.edu.au/report/graduates-in-limbo/

8 Loka 202329min

Assessing the Disability Royal Commission report

Assessing the Disability Royal Commission report

After four years, 32 public hearings, 8,000 submissions, and almost 10,000 people sharing their experience, the Disability Royal Commission has handed its final report to the federal government. Throughout the investigation, the commission heard horror stories of abuse, neglect, coercion, unscrupulous NDIS providers, and severe underpayment of workers with disability. With more than 200 recommendations, the government has an enormous task ahead of it to improve the lives of Australians with disability. This podcast pinpoints some of the most important recommendations, and identifies where the government should start. The report release coincides with the launch of Grattan Institute’s Disability Program, supported by the Summer Foundation. Grattan’s podcast host Kat Clay is joined by our Disability Program Director, Sam Bennett, and researcher Hannah Orban.

1 Loka 202332min

Using government data to improve people’s lives

Using government data to improve people’s lives

Our governments know a lot about us. They hold data on how much we earn, how much tax we pay, our health records, business earnings, even whether we have a fishing license. As we saw during the worst days of the COVID-19 pandemic, data on the spread of the virus and the pace of the vaccine rollout was vital for keeping us safe and holding our governments to account. Government data is also essential for informed public policy debates, and it’s invaluable for researchers and others who advocate for better public policy. But a lot of government data in Australia is locked up behind closed doors. And when governments do make data available, it is often published in ways that are difficult to understand and unwieldy for researchers to use. In this special Grattan Podcast, Grattan data specialist Tyler Reysenbach is joined by Adam Sparks, a Senior Research Scientist with Western Australia's Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, and Matt Cowgill, Senior Economist at SEEK, to talk about how our governments could get better at data, and how things could be improved in ways that would improve public policy and, ultimately, the lives of all Australians.

17 Syys 202329min

Has National Cabinet just solved the housing crisis?

Has National Cabinet just solved the housing crisis?

Last year, the federal government struck a Housing Accord with the states. Together, they committed to build 1 million new, well-located homes across Australia over the next five years. But sky-rocketing rents have turned up the heat on governments to do much more. Last month, National Cabinet responded. The new target is 1.2 million homes over five years, with the federal government offering financial rewards to whichever states do the most to get us towards the new target. And the Prime Minister and the Premiers also promised a better deal for renters. Will it be enough? In this special Grattan Podcast, our housing experts Brendan Coates and Joey Moloney unpack the National Cabinet package, explain why it’s important, and identify the next challenges for policy-makers as they struggle to make housing more affordable for more Australians.

10 Syys 202328min

How to create a better Australia for Generation Next

How to create a better Australia for Generation Next

Grattan Institute CEO Danielle Wood delivered the annual Giblin Lecture in Hobart last week. A partnership between the University of Tasmania and the Tasmanian branch of the Economic Society of Australia, the lecture is named for the eminent Australian economist, Lyndhurst Falkiner Giblin. Danielle used the occasion to issue this plea: “Let’s drop the petty generational warfare, and work together to ensure that the Australia we leave to our children is better than the one we inherited.” And she set herself this tough task: “I want to explore the issues that young people tell us are keeping them up at night, and let them know why this has happened but also what we might as a nation do about it.” In this special edition of the Grattan Podcast, we present a recording of Danielle delivering the lecture, complete with slides.

8 Syys 202351min

Decoding the 2023 NAPLAN results

Decoding the 2023 NAPLAN results

The 2023 NAPLAN school test results released this week show that 1 in 3 Australian students are not on track with their learning. The results also reveal deep inequities in Australian schools, with more than half of disadvantaged students performing below expectations. In this special Grattan Podcast, our NAPLAN specialists Anika Stobart and Nick Parkinson discuss why Australia is performing so poorly, and what governments should do to turn this around so all students have the literacy and numeracy skills they need to have their best chance in life.

27 Elo 202315min

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