SI363: The Misreading of Trend ft. Nick Baltas

SI363: The Misreading of Trend ft. Nick Baltas

As trend following begins to reassert itself, Niels and Nick Baltas dig beneath the surface of recent CTA performance - where the signals are working, why fixed income remains unresolved, and how speed is revealing deeper structural divides. But this episode goes beyond attribution. What if the industry has mistaken correlation shifts for changes in signal speed? What if the very idea of a “trend beta” is flawed? And what if compounding durable returns isn’t about chasing performance, but protecting against path? This is a conversation about design over style, clarity over convention, and the quiet decisions that shape real outcomes.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:50 - Catching up

05:02 - Industry performance update

13:18 - How the speed of trend following strategies is changing

24:13 - Is there a way to define speed differently?

32:19 - Do we have the right definition of a trend index?

38:20 - Brainstorming ideas on how to improve trend following benchmarks

43:50 - The best car needs the best brakes

49:26 - Baltas framework for enhancing trend following performance

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Jaksot(913)

SI356: The Anatomy of a CTA Recovery ft. Katy Kaminski

SI356: The Anatomy of a CTA Recovery ft. Katy Kaminski

Katy Kaminski returns to examine a moment in trend following that feels familiar... but isn’t. Drawing on new research, she and Niels explore how drawdowns resolve, why recovery is faster when markets...

12 Heinä 20251h 3min

ALO30: The Quiet Rewire of Portfolio Construction ft. Cian Walsh

ALO30: The Quiet Rewire of Portfolio Construction ft. Cian Walsh

Cian Walsh, Head of Hedge Funds and Private Debt at Formue, joins Alan Dunne to explore what it means to allocate capital when the macro regime, client expectations, and the structure of markets are ...

9 Heinä 20251h 4min

SI355: Drawdowns Don’t Lie, But They May Mislead ft. Alan Dunne

SI355: Drawdowns Don’t Lie, But They May Mislead ft. Alan Dunne

Markets have recovered fast - maybe too fast. Alan and Niels unpack what sits beneath the surface: a bond market brushing off record deficits, volatility draining from asset prices, and trend follower...

5 Heinä 202545min

OI17: The End of the Bull Market: What’s Next for Equities? ft. Asim Ghaffar

OI17: The End of the Bull Market: What’s Next for Equities? ft. Asim Ghaffar

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Asim Ghaffar, the founder and CIO of AG Capital, a Boston-based macro hedge fund. Asim explains why he believes insourcing rather than outsourcing the organ...

2 Heinä 20251h 9min

SI354: Everyone’s Different. Until They’re Not ft. Rob Carver

SI354: Everyone’s Different. Until They’re Not ft. Rob Carver

With markets drifting and conviction thinning, Rob Carver joins Niels to take stock of a moment that feels suspended... not quite crisis, not quite calm. They discuss why recent rule changes around ba...

28 Kesä 20251h 13min

GM84: What Everyone Saw, but No One Priced ft. Bob Elliott

GM84: What Everyone Saw, but No One Priced ft. Bob Elliott

Bob Elliott joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation about what happens when strong economic data masks a deeper structural shift. The income engine still runs, but tariffs, labor...

25 Kesä 20251h 15min

SI353: You Don’t Buy It for Returns. You Buy It Because It Works! ft. Yoav Git

SI353: You Don’t Buy It for Returns. You Buy It Because It Works! ft. Yoav Git

Some of the most effective portfolio components may generate little or no return on their own. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore that discomfort - why allocators often overlo...

21 Kesä 20251h 8min

GM83: The Risk We Forgot to Price ft. Barry Eichengreen

GM83: The Risk We Forgot to Price ft. Barry Eichengreen

Barry Eichengreen joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at a system losing its anchors. The dollar’s standing, long insulated by trust and habit, now faces a different kind of test... one shaped less...

18 Kesä 20251h 1min

Suosittua kategoriassa Liike-elämä ja talous

sijotuskasti
mimmit-sijoittaa
rss-rahapodi
psykopodiaa-podcast
rss-rahamania
rss-seuraava-potilas
pomojen-suusta
taloudellinen-mielenrauha
ostan-asuntoja-podcast
rss-lahtijat
rss-20-30-40-podcast
rahapuhetta
rss-sisalto-kuntoon
herrasmieshakkerit
rss-bisnesta-bebeja
rss-karon-grilli
rss-draivi
juristipodi
rss-inspiroivat-naiset
rss-siksi-viestinta