Samim Ghamami on the Treasury Markets Impact on the Future Path of Interest Rates and Inflation

Josh Younger is currently a managing director and global head of ALM research and strategy at JP Morgan, and previously spent over a decade as a senior market strategist focused on interest rate and money markets. Josh joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the current state of the Treasury market and various reforms that have recently been proposed for it. Specifically, Josh and David discuss the history and evolving structure of the Treasury market, the emergence of high frequency trading firms over the past decade, the factors behind the 2020 dash for cash, current stresses on the Treasury market, as well as potential reforms for the market going forward.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!

29 Elo 202254min

Carola Binder is an associate professor of economics at Haverford College and is currently a visiting scholar in the Monetary Policy Program at the Mercatus Center. She is also an associate editor at the Review of Economics and Statistics and the Journal of Money Credit and Banking. Carola rejoins Macro Musings to talk about inflation expectations and uncertainty. Specifically, David and Carola discuss why we should care about inflation expectations, which survey measures are most important, how policymakers should respond, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Carola’s Twitter: @cconces Carola’s Haverford site Carola’s Mercatus profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *Consumer Inflation Uncertainty Is Rising* by Carola Binder   *Stuck in the Seventies: Gas Prices and Consumer Sentiment* by Carola Binder and Christos Makridis   *Inflation Expectations and Consumption: Evidence from 1951* by Carola Binder and Gillian Brunet   *How Do Americans View Higher Inflation?* by Frank Newport   *Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending: The Role of Household Balance Sheets* by Lenard Lieb and Johannes Schuffels   *Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence* by Rudiger Bachmann, Tim Berg, and Eric Sims   *A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications* by Christina Romer and David Romer

22 Elo 202253min

Jeffrey Lacker is a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, where he served as its head from 2004 to 2017, and more recently served as a distinguished professor of economics at the Virginia Commonwealth University School of Business through 2022. Currently, Jeff serves on the Shadow Open Market Committee. He joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the traditions of the Richmond Fed, the history of the Federal Reserve’s implicit inflation target prior to 2012, the two percent inflation target the Fed formalized in 2012, the more recent transition to an average inflation target, what the Fed should consider during its next comprehensive framework review, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Jeffrey’s website Jeffrey’s Richmond Fed profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *A Look Back at the Consensus Statement* By Jeffrey Lacker   *Money Market Fund Reform: Dealing with the Fundamental Problem* by Jeffrey Lacker

15 Elo 202252min

Gerard DiPippo is a senior fellow with the economics program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Previously, he spent 11 years in the US intelligence community as a deputy national intelligence officer for economic issues at the National Intelligence Council and as a senior economic analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. In this bonus segment from the previous conversation, David and Gerard discuss the recent Senate report which details the Chinese Government’s decade-long campaign to infiltrate the US Federal Reserve System. Gerard brings his expertise in both national security and monetary policy to this conversation with David to shed some light on this news story.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Gerard’s Twitter: @gdp1985 Gerard’s CSIS profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *China Targeted Fed to Build Informant Network and Access Data, Probe Finds* by Kate O’Keeffe and Nick Timiraos   *China targets Fed to Gain Influence, Senator Charges, Drawing Powell Rebuke* by Kate Davidson   *China’s Threat to the Fed: Chinese Influence and Information Theft at U.S. Federal Reserve Banks* Minority Staff Report, Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs

10 Elo 202217min

Gerard DiPippo is a senior fellow with the economics program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Previously, he spent 11 years in the US intelligence community as a deputy national intelligence officer for economic issues at the National Intelligence Council and as a senior economic analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. Gerard joins Macro Musings to talk about the Russia Sanctions, the global monetary system, demographics, and other economic issues viewed through the lens of national security. He and David also discuss the lessons from the Russia sanctions, dollar dominance as a disciplinary tool, the implications of global population decline, why economic security means national security, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Gerard’s Twitter: @gdp1985 Gerard’s CSIS profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *Strangling the Bear? The Sanctions on Russia After Four Months* by Gerard DiPippo   *Deterrence First: Applying Lessons From Sanctions on Russia to China* by Gerard DiPippo   *Global Population Growth Hits Lowest Rate Since 1950* by Valentina Romei and Alan Smith

8 Elo 202259min

Tom Graff is the head of investments for Facet Wealth and has several decades leading fixed income departments. Tom joins David on Macro Musings to provide his thoughts on the recent FOMC meeting, the Q2 2022 GDP numbers and their implications for the economy, and the future path of Fed policy. Specifically, David and Tom discuss the recent GDP numbers from Q2 2022, the merits of public concerns over a recession, takeaways from the July FOMC meeting, interest rate theory and implicit forecasts of inflation, the fiscal theory of the price level, the continued importance of the Fed’s framework, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Tom’s Twitter: @tdgraff Tom’s Facet Wealth profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   Real GDP Numbers updated for Q2 2022   Federal Open Market Committee: July 26-27, 2022 FOMC Meeting

1 Elo 202249min

Ellen Meade is a research professor of economics at Duke University and a veteran of the Federal Reserve System. Most recently, Ellen served as a special advisor to the board and Vice Chair, Richard Clarida. Ellen joins David on Macro Musings to discuss her research on monetary policy and her work at the Federal Reserve. Specifically, Ellen and David discuss the prospect of central bank independence at the Fed and the specter of fiscal dominance, the recent history of secrecy and transparency at the Fed and how that impacts the incentives to dissent, the effect of the Fed’s forward guidance on recent policy events, what lessons from the past two years the Fed should incorporate into its next framework review, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Ellen’s Vox EU profile Ellen’s Research Gate archive   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *The Evolution of Central Bank Governance Around the World* by Ellen E. Meade and Christopher Crowe   *Central Bank Independence and Transparency: Evolution and Effectiveness* by Ellen E. Meade  and Christopher Crowe   *Publicity of Debate and the Incentive to Dissent: Evidence from the US Federal Reserve* by Ellen E. Meade and David Stasavage

25 Heinä 202257min

Randal Quarles is the executive chairman of the Cynosure Group and the former Vice Chair of Supervision for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Randy also served as an official in the US Department of Treasury, and he joins Macro Musings to talk about his time at the Federal Reserve and his thoughts on current issues facing the institution. David and Randy also discuss how the Fed fell behind the curve on inflation, how he sees the balance sheet reduction process playing out, the central bank’s shifting focus toward climate change, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Randal’s Cynosure profile Randal’s Federal Reserve profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *Between the Hither and the Farther Shore: Thoughts on Unfinished Business* by Randal Quarles

18 Heinä 202247min