Samim Ghamami on the Treasury Markets Impact on the Future Path of Interest Rates and Inflation

Kathy Jones is managing director and chief fixed income strategist for the Schwab Center for Financial Research, and she has spent many years on Wall Street, covering bond markets and foreign exchange. Kathy joins Macro Musings to talk about the present outlook for the economy, the state of markets, and Fed policy. Specifically, David and Kathy discuss the story behind the recent economic slowdown, why equity markets are behind the recessionary curve, Kathy’s sense on QT moving forward, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Kathy’s Twitter: @KathyJones Kathy’s Charles Schwab profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!

11 Heinä 202247min

Michael Dooley is a chief economist for Figure Technologies and a 20-year veteran of the Federal Reserve System and the IMF. Michael is also a professor emeritus in the department of economics at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and he joins Macro Musings to talk about the international monetary system and the future of the dollar. Specifically, David and Michael also discuss the original and revised Bretton Woods systems, the Fed’s role as a monetary superpower, and what this means for the US as a provider of safe and unsafe assets.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Michael’s UC Santa Cruz profile Michael’s NBER archive   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *US Sanctions Reinforce the Dollar’s Dominance* by Michael Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau, and Peter Garber   *Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff   *Dilemma Not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence* by Helene Rey   *The Global Financial Cycle* by Helene Rey and Silvia Miranda-Agrippino

4 Heinä 202248min

Brian Knight is the Director of Innovation and Governance at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Brian’s research focuses on numerous aspects of financial regulation, including the creation of pro-innovation regulatory environments, the role of federalism in fintech regulation, the use of digital assets for financial transactions, the role of regulation for credit markets and consumer protection, and the provision of capital to businesses. Brian joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the politicization of finance and its implications for policy. Specifically, Brian and David discuss the concept of reputational risk and its relevance for financial regulation, the extent and limits of ESG concerns in financial regulation, whether financial regulators are too political or not political enough, the present state as well as the future of ‘woke capitalism’, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Brian’s Twitter: @BrianRKnight Brian’s Mercatus profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *How Financial Regulatory Tools are Used Against Law-abiding Americans – and How to Fix It* by Brian Knight   *Climate Change is a Risk for Banks but it's Not the Only One* by Brian Knight   *Are Financial Regulators Too Political or Not Political Enough?* by Brian Knight

27 Kesä 202251min

Lev Menand is an associate professor of law at Columbia University Law School and writes widely on legal issues surrounding the Federal Reserve. Lev rejoins Macro Musings to talk about his new book titled, *The Fed Unbound: Central Banking in a Time of Crisis.* Specifically, David and Lev discuss why the Fed can be considered unbound, the history of the Fed’s engagement with the shadow banking system, and Lev’s solutions for reform.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Lev’s Twitter: @LevMenand Lev’s Columbia Law profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *The Fed Unbound: Central Banking in a Time of Crisis* by Lev Menand   *Unappropriated Dollars: The Fed’s Ad Hoc Lending Facilities and the Rules That Govern Them* by Lev Menand

20 Kesä 202252min

George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. He is also the most frequent guest on Macro Musings, now appearing for his 12th time. In this episode, George and David identify and discuss their top three articles from the past few weeks related to macroeconomics and monetary policy. Specifically, George and Selgin discuss Lael Brainard’s recent speech defending the Fed’s prospects of issuing central bank digital currency, Janet Yellen’s concession about the path that inflation has taken, the governmental accounting of Federal Reserve losses and whether they amount to a net taxpayer burden, why the Dollar remains firm as the dominant currency in global markets, how an orthodox corridor system defaults into a floor system during times of crisis, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   George’s Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George’s Cato profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *No, Fed, Unrealized Losses are Real Losses for Taxpayers* by Bill Nelson   *Preparing for the Financial System of the Future* speech by Lael Brainard at the 2022 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum   *What if the Federal Reserve Books Losses Because of its Quantitative Easing?* by Willam B. English and Donald Kohn    *From Burns to Powell*, a Macro Musings podcast episode with Guest Donald Kohn and host David Beckworth   *Treasury Secretary Concedes She Was Wrong on 'Path That Inflation Would Take'* By Kevin Liptak and Paul LeBlanc   *How Monetary Policy Got Behind The Curve And How To Get Back: A Policy Conference* Hoover Institution, Stanford University   *Jack Dorsey is Wrong. The Dollar is Still a Global Reserve Currency* by Mark Copelovitch   *A Model of Credit, Money, Interest, and Prices* by Saki Bigio and Yuliy Sannikov

13 Kesä 202257min

Christine McDaniel is a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center where she focuses on trade and intellectual property rights issues. Christine previously held several positions in the US government, including deputy assistant secretary at the Treasury Department and senior trade economist in the White House Council of Economic Advisors. She has also worked in the economic offices of the US Department of Commerce, US Trade Representative, and the US International Trade Commission. Christine rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the economic sanctions applied to Russia, and their implication for the Russian economy and globalization more generally. Specifically, David and Christine also discuss the structure and effectiveness of the Russia sanctions, the war’s heavy impact on food shortages, the role of dollar dominance in geopolitics, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Christine’s Twitter: @christinemcdan Christine’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/christine-mcdaniel   Related Links:   *We’ve Never Seen a Country Go Backwards as Quickly as Russia* by Christine McDaniel https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3487291-weve-never-seen-a-country-go-backwards-as-quickly-as-russia/   *Estimating the Economic Effects of Sanctions on Russia: An Allied Trade Embargo* by Kornel Mahlstein, Christine McDaniel, Simon Schropp, and Marinos Tsigas https://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/74493/RSC_WP_2022_36.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y   *Potential Economic Effects of Sanctions on Russia: An Allied Trade Embargo* by Kornel Mahlstein, Christine McDaniel, Simon Schropp, and Marinos Tsigas https://voxeu.org/article/potential-economic-effects-allied-trade-embargo-russia   *US Sanctions Reinforce the Dollar’s Dominance* by Michael P. Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau, and Peter M. Garber https://www.nber.org/papers/w29943#:~:text=Recent%20sanctions%20on%20the%20use,shock%20absorber%E2%80%9D%20for%20international%20payments.   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

6 Kesä 202250min

Manmohan Singh is a senior economist at the International Monetary Fund and works on rehypothecation, shadow banking, the plumbing of the monetary system, and more. Manmohan joins Macro Musings to talk about stablecoins, central bank balance sheets, central bank digital currencies, and their broader implication for central banks. David and Manmohan specifically discuss the role and structure of stablecoins, the impact of collateral within the financial system, how the Fed have looked to address plumbing issues within this system, and more.   Take the Macro Musings listener survey here.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Manmohan’s VoxEU profile: https://voxeu.org/users/manmohansingh0 Manmohan’s Risk.net archive: https://www.risk.net/author/manmohan-singh   Related Links:   *Interoperability of Stablecoins* by Manmohan Singh, Caitlin Long, and Charles Kahn https://www.centralbanking.com/fintech/7892256/interoperability-of-stablecoins   *How to Stop Stablecoins from Hoarding Precious Collateral* by Manmohan Singh and Caitlin Long https://www.risk.net/comment/7948696/how-to-stop-stablecoins-from-hoarding-precious-collateral   *Money is Privacy* by Charles Kahn, James McAndrews, and William Roberds https://www.jstor.org/stable/3663561   *Investors Withdraw Over $7 Billion from Tether, Raising Fresh Fears About Stablecoin’s Backing* by Ryan Browne https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/tether-usdt-redemptions-fuel-fears-about-stablecoins-backing.html   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

30 Touko 202258min

Bill Nelson is the Chief Economist and an Executive Vice President at the Bank Policy Institute. Bill previously was a deputy director at the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board where his responsibilities included monetary policy analysis, discount window policy analysis, and financial institution supervision. He also worked closely with the BIS on the design of liquidity regulation. Bill joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the Fed's balance sheet, its reduction plans and how the Fed fell behind the curve. Specifically, David and Bill get into whether the Fed regretted its premature tightening period from 2015 to 2018, how the Fed’s focus on the baseline outlook left it not resilient to alternative developments, how concerns over another taper tantrum impacted the Fed’s decision-making, the Fed’s handling of its FAIT framework, and much more. Take the Macro Musings listener survey here.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Bill’s Bank Policy Institute profile: https://bpi.com/people/bill-nelson/ Bill’s American Banker archive: https://www.americanbanker.com/author/william-nelson-ab3618   Related Links: “Plane Crashes and Falling Behind the Curve” by Bill Nelson https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/plane-crashes-falling-behind-curve-bill-nelson/?trk=articles_directory “Guest post: A former Fed insider explains the internal debate over QE3” by Bill Nelson https://www.ft.com/content/254befb7-10f8-3f2c-a9a8-bc6226a6f1db "The Potential Ineffectiveness of Policy at the Zero Bound" (Memo to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors) by Bill Nelson and Brian Sack https://www.dropbox.com/s/fv21og7vpx1izml/BillNelsonMemo.pdf?dl=0  “Interpreting the Significance of the Lagged Interest Rate in Estimated Monetary Policy Rules” by William B. English, William R. Nelson, and Brian P. Sack https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=314425   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

23 Touko 202259min