Samim Ghamami on the Treasury Markets Impact on the Future Path of Interest Rates and Inflation

Carola Binder is an Associate Professor of Economics at Haverford College, and Christina Parajon Skinner is an assistant professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. Both are returning guests to Macro Musings and they rejoin the podcast to talk about populism at the Fed and its implications for policy. Specifically, they discuss rising technopopulism at the Fed, the effect of populist pressures on its legitimacy, the importance of balancing experimentation and intellectual freedom with managing risks of politicization at the Fed, as well as their thoughts on the recent bouts of inflation.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Carola’s Twitter: @cconces Carola’s blog: https://carolabinder.blogspot.com/ Carola’s Haverford profile: https://carolabinder.sites.haverford.edu/   Christina’s Twitter: @CParaSkinner Christina’s Wharton profile: https://lgst.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/skinnerc/   Related Links:   Cato Institute 39th Annual Monetary Conference: Panel 1: The Populist Challenge to Fed Independence https://www.cato.org/multimedia/events/39th-annual-monetary-conference-panel-1-populist-challenge-fed-independence   *Technopopulism and Central Banks* by Carola Binder https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3823456   *Technopopulism: The New Logic of Democratic Politics* by Christopher J. Bickerton and Carlo Invernizzi Accetti https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/oso/9780198807766.001.0001/oso-9780198807766   *Central Bank Activism* by Christina Parajon Skinner https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/Microsites/fmlg/files/2021/Skinner_Central%20Bank%20Activism.pdf   *Laboratories of Central Banking* by Carola Binder and Christina Parajon Skinner https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3956845   *Fifty Shades of QE: Comparing Findings of Central Bankers and Academics* by Brian Fabo, Martina Jančoková, Elisabeth Kempf, and Ľuboš Pástor https://www.nber.org/papers/w27849   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

6 Joulu 202153min

Matthew Klein is the author of The Overshoot, a newsletter that helps readers make sense of the global economy. Matt is also a returning guest to the podcast, and rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the hot topic of inflation and its outlook. Specifically, David and Matt discuss what is driving trend inflation, Matt’s decomposition of the CPI, whether or not we should be worried about inflationary trends, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Matthew’s Twitter: @M_C_Klein Matthew’s Substack: https://theovershoot.co/about   Related Links:   *The Case for Patience on Inflation* by Matthew Klein https://theovershoot.co/p/the-case-for-patience-on-inflation   *What’s Going On With Interest Rates? (Part 1)* by Matthew Klein https://theovershoot.co/p/whats-going-on-with-interest-rates   *Fed Policy Must Adjust for Inflation* by Martin Wolf https://www.ft.com/content/dc3bedc7-5694-4868-8b86-f9a215966f52   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

29 Marras 202150min

Markus Brunnermeier is a professor of economics and the director of the Bendheim Center for Finance at Princeton University. Markus is also a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Markus joins Macro Musings to discuss his new book, titled “The Resilient Society,” as well as his work on safe assets and their implications for inflation. Specifically, David and Markus discuss the implications of the fiscal theory of the price level for inflation, the role of the Fed in stabilizing money markets, what is meant by “resilience” compared to “robustness” in economies, and much more.   Transcript can be found here.   Markus’s Twitter: @MarkusEconomist Markus’s Princeton profile: https://scholar.princeton.edu/markus/home   Related Links:   *The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level with a Bubble* by Markus Brunnermeier https://scholar.princeton.edu/markus/publications/fiscal-theory-price-level-bubble   *The Resilient Society* by Markus Brunnermeier https://bcf.princeton.edu/the-resilient-society/   *What Makes US Government Bonds Safe Assets?* by Zhiguo He, Arvind Krishnamurthy, and Konstantin Milbradt https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20161109   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

22 Marras 202151min

Ajmal Ahmady is the former acting governor of the Central Bank of Afghanistan and is now a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. Ajmal joins Macro Musings to talk about his experience as a central bank governor in Afghanistan and the challenges now facing the nation’s economy. Specifically, David and Ajmal discuss his unique role as the country’s central bank chief, the structure of the Afghan monetary system, the state of the nation’s economy moving forward, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Ajmal’s Twitter: @aahmady Ajmal’s Harvard biography: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/about/senior-fellows#ahmady Ajmal's research: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/mrcbg/programs/senior.fellows/2021-22/Ahmady_Research%20Proposal%20(summary).pdf   Related Links:   Ajmal’s Twitter thread about Afghanistan’s collapse: https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427265049668636674?lang=en   *Why Afghanistan Fell: An Insider’s Account of What Went Wrong* by Ajmal Ahmady https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2021-10-11/why-afghanistan-fell   *Afghanistan Faces an Economic Crisis, as Well as a Humanitarian One* by Ajmal Ahmady https://www.ft.com/stream/75ed5ed6-883f-402c-b04b-4d1ddd5ab670   *The Taliban Can't Print Cash and Other Afghan Business Challenges* by Ajmal Ahmady https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-07/the-taliban-can-t-mint-money-and-other-business-challenges-in-afghanistan   *Severe Drought Adds to Afghanistan’s Woes, Endangering Millions as Economy Collapses* by Sune Engel Rasmussen https://www.wsj.com/articles/severe-drought-adds-to-afghanistans-woes-endangering-millions-as-economy-collapses-11633872935#:~:text=Severe%20Drought%20Adds%20to%20Afghanistan's,Millions%20as%20Economy%20Collapses%20%2D%20WSJ&text=The%20drought%20has%20compounded%20the,Taliban%20overthrew%20the%20previous%20government.    *Regional Power Back Aid for Afghanistan as Russia Hosts the Taliban* by Aljazeera https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/20/russia-hosts-taliban-for-talks-but-warns-no-recognition-for-now   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

15 Marras 202137min

Peter Stella is the former Head of the IMF Central Banking division and has researched and written extensively on safe assets, collateral and central bank operations. Peter now hosts a website Central Banking Archeology. Peter joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the role of money and its relationship to inflation as well as its relationship to the payment system. Specifically, David and Peter discuss the fiscal theory of the price level, how rising indebtedness can signal higher inflation in the future, the implications of the fiscal theory for contemporary fiscal and monetary policy going forward, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Peter’s Twitter: @Stellar_Consult Peter’s website: https://www.centralbankarchaeology.com/ Peter’s Voxeu profile: https://voxeu.org/users/peterstella0 Peter’s Research Gate archive: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Peter_Stella   Related Links:    *Some Incredible Monetarist Arithmetic* by Peter Stella https://www.centralbankarchaeology.com/post/some-incredible-monetarist-arithmetic   *Some Alternative Monetary Facts* by Peter Stella, Manmohan Singh, and Apoorv Bhargava https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/01/08/Some-Alternative-Monetary-Facts-49975   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

8 Marras 202149min

Robert Orr is a policy analyst at the Niskanen Center where he focuses on welfare, healthcare, and labor market policy. Robert joins Macro Musings to talk about one of the more important sectors of the US economy, healthcare, and some of the biggest supply side bottlenecks the industry faces. Specifically, David and Robert discuss the uniqueness of the US healthcare system, the reason for massive spending within the healthcare industry, and how to fix the supply bottlenecks that have emerged.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Robert’s Twitter: @Robert_t_Orr Robert’s Niskanen profile: https://www.niskanencenter.org/author/robert-orr/   Related Links:   *The Planning of U.S. Physician Shortages* by Robert Orr https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-planning-of-u-s-physician-shortages/   *The U.S. Has Much to Gain from More Doctors* by Robert Orr https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-u-s-has-much-to-gain-from-more-doctors/   *Unmatched: Repairing the U.S. Medical Residency Pipeline* by Robert Orr https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-u-s-has-much-to-gain-from-more-doctors/   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

1 Marras 202138min

George Selgin is the director emeritus of the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives and is a returning guest to Macro Musings. George rejoins David on the podcast to discuss cryptocurrency, stable coins, CBDCs, and a push for a higher inflation target. Specifically, George and David discuss the category of ‘synthetic commodity money’ and how bitcoin is a potential example, the current state of Bitcoin amidst El Salvador’s transition to Bitcoin as its legal tender, the role of fintechs in the potential future of a Fed central bank digital currency, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   George’s Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George’s Cato Institute profile: https://www.cato.org/people/george-selgin   Related Links:   *Synthetic Commodity Money* by George Selgin https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2000118   *The Denationalization of Money* by F.A. Hayek https://www.amazon.com/Denationalization-Money-Analysis-Concurrent-Currencies/dp/0255360878   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

25 Loka 202147min

Peter Conti-Brown is a legal scholar and financial historian at the University of Pennsylvania and is a nonresident fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution. Peter’s scholarship focuses on the legal and historical issues of the Federal Reserve system, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the many facets of Fed governance. David and Peter specifically discuss the Federal Reserve’s recent trading scandal, the Fed Chair nomination process, the central bank’s role in fighting climate change, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Peter’s Twitter: @PeterContiBrown Peter’s Brookings profile: https://www.brookings.edu/author/peter-conti-brown/ Peter’s Wharton profile: https://lgst.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/petercb/   Related Links:   *Technocratic Pragmatism, Bureaucratic Expertise, and the Federal Reserve* by Peter Conti-Brown and David Wishnick https://www.yalelawjournal.org/feature/technocratic-pragmatism-bureaucratic-expertise-and-the-federal-reserve   *Restoring the Promise of Federal Reserve Governance* by Peter Conti-Brown https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/restoring-promise-fed-governance#:~:text=In%20%E2%80%9CRestoring%20the%20Promise%20of,it%20was%20designed%20to%20be.   Peter Conti-Brown on *Restoring the Promise of Federal Reserve Governance*: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/01062020/peter-conti-brown-restoring-promise-federal-reserve-governance   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

18 Loka 202153min