164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

In this episode of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, Eric dives into the concept of expectancy—a key metric that blends win rate, average win size, and average loss size into one number that helps traders understand whether a strategy has a real edge over the long run.

We break down why a high win rate alone doesn’t guarantee profits (think 98% win rate ads…), and how expectancy provides better context by showing how much you can expect to make or lose per trade on average. Eric also shares updates inside Alpha Crunching: the Trade Ideas tab now includes expectancy alongside win rate, giving subscribers deeper insight when sorting potential setups for the week.

You’ll also hear about future enhancements—like adding average win and loss values—so traders can better gauge risk-reward and decide which setups fit their personal style.

👉 Try Alpha Crunching for yourself and get 50% off your first month here: https://alphacrunching.com

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Jaksot(187)

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SPX Weekly Options With Al Losada (Part 2)

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Al Losada is the founder of Simple Option Strategies. Here are a few ways to find more about him online.Website: https://www.simpleoptionstrategies.com/Facebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/...

14 Touko 202034min

SPX Weekly Options With Al Losada (Part 1)

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8 Touko 202044min

Case Study: Debit Spread vs. Leveraged ETF

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There are different ways to get long and different ways to trade with leverage. In this episode, we're going to look at both by comparing two leveraged ways of getting long the S&P500. We're going t...

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