164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

In this episode of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, Eric dives into the concept of expectancy—a key metric that blends win rate, average win size, and average loss size into one number that helps traders understand whether a strategy has a real edge over the long run.

We break down why a high win rate alone doesn’t guarantee profits (think 98% win rate ads…), and how expectancy provides better context by showing how much you can expect to make or lose per trade on average. Eric also shares updates inside Alpha Crunching: the Trade Ideas tab now includes expectancy alongside win rate, giving subscribers deeper insight when sorting potential setups for the week.

You’ll also hear about future enhancements—like adding average win and loss values—so traders can better gauge risk-reward and decide which setups fit their personal style.

👉 Try Alpha Crunching for yourself and get 50% off your first month here: https://alphacrunching.com

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Jaksot(187)

131: All Time Stock Market Highs! Now What?

131: All Time Stock Market Highs! Now What?

In this episode, we'll cover some thoughts at what to think about the market here has we're hitting new all time highs post US Election. We've got several key economic reports coming this week too aro...

11 Marras 202417min

130: GOOGL Earnings Trade Success

130: GOOGL Earnings Trade Success

In this episode, I walk through my recent GOOGL earning trade in which I held shares into the earnings event but added a risk free collar trade for protection. As you'll hear, the collar trade caps my...

30 Loka 202411min

129: Case Study: Take Profits Early or Hold To Expiration?

129: Case Study: Take Profits Early or Hold To Expiration?

In this episode, we'll dive into an options strategy and compare backtest results of holding the trades to expiration, aka HTE, versus taking profits at 50% of the max gain. We'll discuss some of the ...

21 Loka 202419min

128: The New Spot Gamma TRACE Indicator Explained

128: The New Spot Gamma TRACE Indicator Explained

In this episode, we have Brent Kachuba from Spot Gamma on to discuss their newly released game changing indicator called TRACE. The TRACE indicator is expertly designed to show options positioning fro...

27 Syys 202447min

127: The Psychology of Automated Trading w/ Mike Christensen of TradersPost.io

127: The Psychology of Automated Trading w/ Mike Christensen of TradersPost.io

Greats discussion this week around the psychology of automated trading with Co-Founder Mike Christensen of TradersPost.io. Traders Post allows you to automate trades using buy and sell signals from pl...

12 Syys 202437min

126: For Every Strategy, Cash Is A Position

126: For Every Strategy, Cash Is A Position

Patience and discipline are a big part of trading and when you are executing on a strategy, its important to understand that being in cash and not in a particular trade is part of that strategy.Want t...

3 Syys 20249min

125: What the Books Don’t Teach About Vertical Spreads

125: What the Books Don’t Teach About Vertical Spreads

Updated options trading research now available in the SPX Income Masterclass geared towards beginners with small accounts and for those who don't want to watch the market all day. The strategies inclu...

23 Elo 202414min

124: S&P 500 Navigator: Short Term Bearish Thesis and Trade Idea

124: S&P 500 Navigator: Short Term Bearish Thesis and Trade Idea

If you trade the S&P500, then this series is for you. In the S&P500 Navigator series, we'll discuss current market conditions including options positions, major economic events, and AlphaCrunching.com...

6 Elo 202413min

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