Get Ready for a Steeper Yield Curve

Get Ready for a Steeper Yield Curve

Our Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur explains how changes in the yield curve are affecting markets such as insurance, Treasury yields and mortgage rates.

Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.


----- Transcript -----


Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Fixed Income Strategist.

Today – How the shape of the yield curve has affected credit and housing markets, and the risk of changes to the curve and its implications.

It’s Tuesday, October 7th at 1pm in New York.

The shape of the yield curve plays a pivotal role in financial markets. It influences everything from credit conditions to housing and mortgage dynamics. And you’ve been hearing on this show for some time about more Fed rate cuts coming. Our economists expect 25 basis point rate cuts at the next three meetings – that is October, December and January. And then two more in April and July of next year.

What does this mean to the shape of the curve? Our high conviction call has been that investors should position for a steeper yield curve. Why does the curve matter? It’s not just a macro signal. It’s a transmission mechanism that shapes pricing, risk appetite, and sector flows.

Take life insurers, for example. A steeper curve has turbocharged demand for fixed annuity products, which in turn drives flows into spread assets like corporate and securitized credit. Insurance demand has become a powerful technical in credit markets.

This year’s steepening has been led by falling front-end yields. For example, 2-year Treasuries are down about 60 basis points, significantly outpacing the 40 basis point drop in 10-year yields and just 5 basis point drop in 30-year yields. That front-end move reflects shifting rate expectations and offers relief to highly leveraged issuers who rely on short-term funding.

But longer-dated yields remain sticky, keeping all-in borrowing costs elevated. That is good for insurers – and the sale of fixed annuity products – but acts as a brake on overall issuance, helping keep credit spreads tight despite macro uncertainty.

That said, not all markets benefit. Mortgage rates, which track longer yields more closely than the fed funds rate, have actually risen 25 to 30 basis points since the easing cycle began in September of 2024. That’s a headwind for affordability. While a steeper curve may support lending and future housing supply, it’s not helping today’s buyers. A flatter curve with lower long-end yields would offer more meaningful relief—but that is clearly not our base case.

Bottom line: Rate cuts matter, but the shape of the curve may matter more. A steeper curve is a tailwind for credit but a headwind for housing. And a reminder that not all markets move in sync.

Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Jaksot(1611)

Mike Wilson: 5 Pockets of Opportunity for Equities Investors

Mike Wilson: 5 Pockets of Opportunity for Equities Investors

On today's episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says investors may want to steer clear of expensive growth stocks in favor of some defensive and cheaper-priced stocks.

21 Loka 20193min

Andrew Sheets: One Market We Feel Good About

Andrew Sheets: One Market We Feel Good About

On today’s episode, Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets highlights the one market in which the currency, government bonds and equities may all be solid defensive plays.

18 Loka 20192min

Michael Zezas: A “Durable Pause” on U.S.-China Trade Tensions?

Michael Zezas: A “Durable Pause” on U.S.-China Trade Tensions?

On today’s episode, Head of Public Policy Michael Zezas says unlike prior tariff pauses, the “phase one” agreement could have durability. However, much uncertainty remains.

16 Loka 20192min

Mike Wilson: How Will the “Phase One” Trade Deal Impact Earnings?

Mike Wilson: How Will the “Phase One” Trade Deal Impact Earnings?

On today's episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says the U.S.-China trade deal is a step in the right direction, but the real story is still the corporate profits outlook.

14 Loka 20193min

Andrew Sheets: Is the Dollar Losing It’s Safe Haven Status?

Andrew Sheets: Is the Dollar Losing It’s Safe Haven Status?

On today's episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains how three of the dollar’s most attractive qualities could be shifting right before our eyes.

11 Loka 20192min

Michael Zezas: The Key Variable in U.S.-China Trade Talks

Michael Zezas: The Key Variable in U.S.-China Trade Talks

On today's episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas says when it comes to trade, movement toward a meaningful compromise will likely come down to one fundamental variable.

9 Loka 20192min

Mike Wilson: An Unsatisfying Market for Bulls and Bears?

Mike Wilson: An Unsatisfying Market for Bulls and Bears?

On today’s episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says both bulls and bears were likely a bit frustrated trying to trade last week's sell-off and rally. So what’s the next move for investors?

7 Loka 20193min

Andrew Sheets: The 3 Most Powerful Market Indicators?

Andrew Sheets: The 3 Most Powerful Market Indicators?

On today's episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says despite the myriad models used to assess the direction of markets, three simple indicators may be the most valuable.

4 Loka 20193min

Suosittua kategoriassa Liike-elämä ja talous

sijotuskasti
psykopodiaa-podcast
mimmit-sijoittaa
rss-rahapodi
ostan-asuntoja-podcast
rss-rahamania
hyva-paha-johtaminen
herrasmieshakkerit
rss-sami-miettinen-neuvottelija
rahapuhetta
rss-lahtijat
inderespodi
yrittaja
juristipodi
rss-sisalto-kuntoon
rss-seuraava-potilas
oppimisen-psykologia
rss-uskalla-yrittaa
rss-startup-ministerio
rss-inderes-femme