Doomer Optimism21 Loka 2025

DO 285 - AI and The 95% Extinction Threshold

AI safety researcher Nate Soares explains why he believes there's at least a 95% chance that current AI development will lead to human extinction, and why we're accelerating toward that outcome. Soares, who has been working on AI alignment since 2012, breaks down the fundamental problem: we're building increasingly intelligent systems without any ability to control what they actually want or pursue.The conversation covers current AI behavior that wasn't programmed: threatening users, keeping psychotic people in delusional states, and repeatedly lying when caught. Soares explains why these aren't bugs to be fixed but symptoms of a deeper problem. We can't point AI systems at any specific goal, not even something simple like "make a diamond." Instead, we get systems with bizarre drives that are only distantly related to their training.Soares addresses the "racing China" argument and why it misunderstands the threat. He explains why AI engineers can build powerful systems without understanding what's actually happening inside them, and why this matters. Using examples from evolutionary biology, he shows why there's no reason to expect AI systems to develop human-like morality or values.The discussion covers why a catastrophic warning event probably won't help, what international coordination could look like, and why current safety efforts fall short of what's needed. Soares is direct about industry motivations, technical limitations, and the timeline we're facing.Nate Soares has been researching AI alignment and safety since 2012. He works at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), one of the pioneering organizations focused on ensuring advanced AI systems are aligned with human values.

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Episode 71 - Jeff Bilbro w/ Donald Antenen and Ashley Colby

On this episode of Doomer Optimism, first-time host Donald Antenen (@riversofeurope) and Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool) interview associate English professor and editor of Front Porch Republic, Jeff Bil...

6 Syys 20221h 31min

Episode 70 - Ariel Greenwood and Jonathan Gay w/ Jason Snyder

Episode 70 of Doomer Optimism kicks off with Jason Snyder (@cognazor) introducing first-time host Ariel Greenwood (@greenwoodae) before launching into a discussion on ecological restoration with cattl...

31 Elo 20221h 39min

Episode 69 - Malcolm Schluenderfritz w/ Ashley Colby

This episode of Doomer Optimism has Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool) discussing voluntary poverty with Malcolm Schluenderfritz (@HAYPpodcast), the host of Happy Are You Poor, a blog and podcast dedicated ...

27 Elo 20221h 2min

Episode 68 - Chris Mott w/ Josh Kearns and Ashley Colby

On episode 68, Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool) and Josh Kearns (@HillbillyNarnia) to interview writer and historical geopolitics specialist, Chris Mott (@ChrisDMott), about his recent white paper "Woke I...

24 Elo 20221h 35min

Episode 67 - Brendan Barnard w/ Ashley Colby and Peter Allen

Episode 67 is all about regenerative ag, with Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool) and Peter Allen (@pclarkallen) teaming up to talk to Brendan Barnard (@IntractableLion)of Posterity Ciderworks about his cide...

19 Elo 20221h 14min

DO 66 - Kev Aliti English Homestead

Kevin Alviti has been a carpenter for over 20 years, he has worked on everything from oak framed barns to high rise flats, from 18th century style carvings to cleaving the parts for a gate from a log....

17 Elo 20221h 18min

Episode 65 - Mash Tun Timmy and the Brewers w/ Ashley Colby

On this episode of Doomer Optimism, Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool) interviews "Mash Tun" Timmy (@MashTunTimmy) and his band of merry brewers about making beer, friendships, and how making things can bri...

16 Elo 20221h 2min

Episode 64 - Existential Risk roundtable

The 64th episode is all about disaster management, community resilience, and existential risk. Tres Crow (@dogeatcrow) hosts for a panel of brilliant people: Scott James (https://scottjames.me/), SJ B...

9 Elo 20221h 20min