Doomer Optimism21 Loka 2025

DO 285 - AI and The 95% Extinction Threshold

AI safety researcher Nate Soares explains why he believes there's at least a 95% chance that current AI development will lead to human extinction, and why we're accelerating toward that outcome. Soares, who has been working on AI alignment since 2012, breaks down the fundamental problem: we're building increasingly intelligent systems without any ability to control what they actually want or pursue.The conversation covers current AI behavior that wasn't programmed: threatening users, keeping psychotic people in delusional states, and repeatedly lying when caught. Soares explains why these aren't bugs to be fixed but symptoms of a deeper problem. We can't point AI systems at any specific goal, not even something simple like "make a diamond." Instead, we get systems with bizarre drives that are only distantly related to their training.Soares addresses the "racing China" argument and why it misunderstands the threat. He explains why AI engineers can build powerful systems without understanding what's actually happening inside them, and why this matters. Using examples from evolutionary biology, he shows why there's no reason to expect AI systems to develop human-like morality or values.The discussion covers why a catastrophic warning event probably won't help, what international coordination could look like, and why current safety efforts fall short of what's needed. Soares is direct about industry motivations, technical limitations, and the timeline we're facing.Nate Soares has been researching AI alignment and safety since 2012. He works at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), one of the pioneering organizations focused on ensuring advanced AI systems are aligned with human values.

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Episode 63 - Matt Berk w/ Ashley Colby and Jason Snyder

This episode has Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool) and Jason Snyder (@cognazor) chatting up Matt Berk (@mattdberk), a swiss army knife a man with a broad range of interests. From energy crunch, peak oil, a...

4 Elo 20221h 12min

Episode 62 - Uncivilized Tom w/ Tres Crow

Tres Crow (@dogeatcrow) solo hosts this interesting conversation with musician and burgeoning Doomer Optimist, Uncivilized Tom (@uncivilizedtom). This is one of the first episodes that really stray fr...

2 Elo 20221h 25min

Episode 61 - Richard Flyer w/ Jason Snyder

This episode of Doomer Optimism has Jason Snyder (@cognazor) having a conversation with Richard Flynn (@Richard_Flyer) about building a sustainable global commonwealth of bioregional economies. About...

29 Heinä 20221h 26min

Episode 60 - Hermitix x Doomer Optimism panel discussion on collapse and the good life

This episode of Doomer Optimism is a panel discussion that mashes up the Hermitix (@Hermitixpodcast) podcast sphere with the Doomer Optimism sphere. With six guests, the topics covered are as broad an...

28 Heinä 20221h 12min

Episode 59 - Ilan Kelman w/ Donald Antenen and Ashley Colby

Episode 59 of Doomer Optimism is all about climate change. What's real, what's not, and how to sift through the noise. Ashley (@RizomaSchool) is joined by first-time host Donald Antenen (@riversofeuro...

27 Heinä 20221h 35min

Episode 58 - Kairos w/ Jason Snyder

This episode finds two metamodernists, metamoderning together. Jason Snyder (@cognazor) interviews Justin Manchester (@kairos0101) a range of topics, using metamodernism as a launching point for discu...

22 Heinä 20221h 31min

Episode 57 - Joe Brewer w/ Steven Morris and Jason Snyder

I know we say this all the time around Doomer Optimism, but this time we really have a special episode. Brought live from Colombia, host Steven Morris (@lifesmyth) interviews Joe Brewer (@cognitivepol...

20 Heinä 20221h 31min

Episode 56 - Vivid Void and Big Buhddi w/ Ashley Colby and Jason Snyder

This episode of Doomer Optimism has Ashley (@RizomaSchool) and Jason (@cognazor) team up again to interrogate spirituality, religion, and esoterica with Big Buddhi (@embryosophy) and Vivid Void (@Vivi...

19 Heinä 20221h 28min