Ep68 “Is It Better to Overestimate or Underestimate Your Enemies?” with H.R. McMaster

Ep68 “Is It Better to Overestimate or Underestimate Your Enemies?” with H.R. McMaster

Historically, the U.S. has had a habit of overestimating the capabilities of its enemies. Why? Is this an intentional security strategy? Or does the U.S. need to change the way it gathers enemy intelligence?

Former National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster gives hosts and finance professors Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen a crash course on military intelligence and national security advising.

The conversation covers why the overestimation of enemies happens, including historical examples of misjudgments, the role of proxies in modern conflicts, strategic considerations involving major powers like China, and the threat of information warfare.

Find All Else Equal on the web:

https://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/allelse/

All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions Podcast is a production of the UPenn Wharton Lauder Institute through University FM.


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Ep28 Incentives and Externalities

Ep28 Incentives and Externalities

Humans respond to incentives, and so incentives predict behavior and sometimes the behavior can be detrimental. In this episode of All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions, hosts and finance professors...

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Ep27 "The Future of AI" with Michal Kosinski

Ep27 "The Future of AI" with Michal Kosinski

The speed at which AI is getting smarter is on everybody's mind these days. In this episode of All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions, hosts and finance professors Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsber...

31 Touko 202330min

Ep26 “Investigating Implausible Theories: The Case of COVID” with Matt Ridley

Ep26 “Investigating Implausible Theories: The Case of COVID” with Matt Ridley

When COVID-19 shut down the world economy in 2020 many wondered where it had begun and why the pandemic had even started in the first place. In this episode of All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions,...

17 Touko 202329min

Ep25 “Bubble Trouble” with Will Goetzmann

Ep25 “Bubble Trouble” with Will Goetzmann

Financial bubbles are episodes where the value of something (like stocks, tulips or cryptocurrency) shoots up very rapidly, but then peaks and comes crashing down. The problem has never been seeing th...

3 Touko 202328min

Ep24 “When Institutions Cry Wolf” with Jay Bhattacharya

Ep24 “When Institutions Cry Wolf” with Jay Bhattacharya

It takes a long time to build up credibility, but you can lose it in an instant. What would it take to justify lying to the public for their own good, and are the benefits worth the costs? In this epi...

12 Huhti 202332min

Ep23 “When Banking Fails” with Amit Seru

Ep23 “When Banking Fails” with Amit Seru

The FDIC and Federal Reserve have recently intervened to stop another banking crisis. In this episode of All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions, hosts and finance professors Jonathan Berk and Jules v...

24 Maalis 202333min

Ep22 “How Do You Know If Your Marketing Dollars Are Working?” with Florian Zettelmeyer

Ep22 “How Do You Know If Your Marketing Dollars Are Working?” with Florian Zettelmeyer

Note: if you are hearing the wrong audio try redownloading the episode or listen here.What reach does marketing really have? In the murky waters of cause and effect marketers have to figure out where ...

15 Maalis 202326min

Ep21 "Disentangling Causation and Correlation" with Guido Imbens

Ep21 "Disentangling Causation and Correlation" with Guido Imbens

It can be tempting to think one thing causes another because they happen in succession, but there’s a lot to unwrap in the idea of causality. In this episode of All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions...

1 Maalis 202328min

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