Treasury Modelling Secrets: Macro Forecasts, Tax Policy & CGE/OLG Models

Treasury Modelling Secrets: Macro Forecasts, Tax Policy & CGE/OLG Models

Discover the complex economic models shaping fiscal advice at The Treasury. This review explores the critical recommendation to move away from the current 3-phase forecasting approach and embed a new, high-priority macro-econometric model for projections that must span greatly varying time horizons, from two up to 41 years. We analyze the crucial roadmap for the Revenue Group, focusing on upgrading its capability to use the detailed CGETAX model for analyzing tax policy impacts (covering up to twelve categories of tax). Learn why linking this CGE analysis with microsimulation models like CAPITA and PRISMOD.DIST is recommended for consistency in assessing both economic efficiency and household equity impacts. Finally, find out why Overlapping Generations (OLG) models are a medium priority for the Fiscal Group, as they are crucial tools for scenario analysis concerning intergenerational issues like retirement incomes and public debt policies.

Jaksot(61)

COVID-19 and the Australian Economy: From Shock to Recovery

COVID-19 and the Australian Economy: From Shock to Recovery

In this episode, we explore the profound economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Australia from 2020 to 2021. We discuss how public health restrictions triggered a sharp downturn in GDP and emplo...

12 Touko 202515min

The Global Financial Crisis: Causes, Collapse, and Lessons Learned

The Global Financial Crisis: Causes, Collapse, and Lessons Learned

In this episode, we unpack the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009—how it began in the U.S. housing market and quickly rippled through the global financial system. We examine the key drivers, includi...

12 Touko 202518min

How Banks Set Interest Rates: The Hidden Mechanics of Lending

How Banks Set Interest Rates: The Hidden Mechanics of Lending

In this episode, we explore how banks operate behind the scenes—specifically how they manage the balance between funding costs and lending rates. Discover how banks source their funds through deposits...

12 Touko 202510min

Bonds & the Yield Curve: Decoding Market Signals

Bonds & the Yield Curve: Decoding Market Signals

In this episode, we demystify bonds and the yield curve—two foundational concepts in financial markets. We explain what bonds are, how yields work, and why bond prices move inversely to yields. You'll...

11 Touko 202522min

Breaking Down the Balance of Payments: Tracking Australia's Global Transactions

Breaking Down the Balance of Payments: Tracking Australia's Global Transactions

In this episode, we dive into the balance of payments—an essential tool for understanding a country’s economic relationship with the rest of the world. Learn how it's structured into the current accou...

11 Touko 202517min

Understanding Exchange Rates: Australia's Global Currency Connections

Understanding Exchange Rates: Australia's Global Currency Connections

In this episode, we unpack the fundamentals of exchange rates and why they matter for an open, trade-driven economy like Australia. We explore key concepts including bilateral exchange rates, cross ra...

11 Touko 202516min

Exchange Rates Explained: Why the Dollar Matters to the Economy

Exchange Rates Explained: Why the Dollar Matters to the Economy

Exchange rates do more than just affect your holiday budget—they shape the entire Australian economy. In this episode, we unpack how exchange rates function and why their movements matter. From influe...

9 Touko 202513min

Floating or Falling? What Moves the Australian Dollar

Floating or Falling? What Moves the Australian Dollar

Ever wondered why the value of the Australian dollar rises and falls? In this episode, we dive into how Australia's floating exchange rate works and the key factors that drive it—from long-term influe...

9 Touko 202510min

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