Treasury Modelling Secrets: Macro Forecasts, Tax Policy & CGE/OLG Models

Treasury Modelling Secrets: Macro Forecasts, Tax Policy & CGE/OLG Models

Discover the complex economic models shaping fiscal advice at The Treasury. This review explores the critical recommendation to move away from the current 3-phase forecasting approach and embed a new, high-priority macro-econometric model for projections that must span greatly varying time horizons, from two up to 41 years. We analyze the crucial roadmap for the Revenue Group, focusing on upgrading its capability to use the detailed CGETAX model for analyzing tax policy impacts (covering up to twelve categories of tax). Learn why linking this CGE analysis with microsimulation models like CAPITA and PRISMOD.DIST is recommended for consistency in assessing both economic efficiency and household equity impacts. Finally, find out why Overlapping Generations (OLG) models are a medium priority for the Fiscal Group, as they are crucial tools for scenario analysis concerning intergenerational issues like retirement incomes and public debt policies.

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Chasing Full Employment: Understanding the NAIRU and Inflation Trade-offs

Chasing Full Employment: Understanding the NAIRU and Inflation Trade-offs

Can unemployment ever be too low? In this episode, we explore the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment—or NAIRU—a key economic concept used to gauge how low unemployment can go without trig...

9 Touko 202513min

Unpacking Unemployment: What the Numbers Really Mean

Unpacking Unemployment: What the Numbers Really Mean

Unemployment is more than just a headline figure—it’s a window into the health of the labour market and the economy. In this episode, we break down how the unemployment rate is measured in Australia b...

9 Touko 202515min

The Power of Productivity: Measuring What Drives Economic Growth

The Power of Productivity: Measuring What Drives Economic Growth

What exactly is productivity, and why does it matter so much in economics? In this episode, we demystify productivity by exploring its two key forms—labour productivity and multifactor productivity (M...

9 Touko 202519min

Riding the Waves: Understanding Business Cycles and Recessions

Riding the Waves: Understanding Business Cycles and Recessions

What causes economies to boom and bust? In this episode, we break down the business cycle—its phases, causes, and consequences—and explore what defines a recession versus a depression. We examine diff...

9 Touko 202515min

GDP and Beyond: Understanding Economic Growth in Australia

GDP and Beyond: Understanding Economic Growth in Australia

What drives a nation's economy forward? In this episode, we take a deep dive into the concept of economic growth, focusing on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the key measure of progress. You'll learn ...

7 Touko 202524min

Behind the Numbers: How Australia Measures Inflation

Behind the Numbers: How Australia Measures Inflation

What exactly is inflation, and how do we measure it? In this episode, we dive into the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—Australia’s main tool for tracking inflation. We explain how the Australian Bureau of ...

7 Touko 202514min

Why Australia Targets 2–3% Inflation?

Why Australia Targets 2–3% Inflation?

What’s behind Australia’s 2–3% inflation target—and why does it matter? In this episode, we break down the Reserve Bank of Australia's inflation target, how it's measured using the Consumer Price Inde...

7 Touko 202513min

Explaining the Causes of Inflation

Explaining the Causes of Inflation

In this episode, we unpack the key causes of inflation and explore how rising prices can stem from different sources. We delve into the three main types of inflation: demand-pull, cost-push, and infla...

7 Touko 202518min

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