Macro Musings with David Beckworth

In this special end-of-the-year episode of Macro Musings, David Beckworth joins guest host David Andolfatto of the St. Louis Fed to discuss a wide range of macroeconomic topics, including podcast highlights from the whole of 2021. More specifically, both Davids talk about the similarities and differences between average inflation targeting and NGDP targeting, the recent inflation puzzles that have plagued the macroeconomy, David’s safe asset theory of inflation, and more.   Want to support the show? Visit donate.mercatus.org/podcasts   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David Beckworth’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ David Beckworth’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/david-beckworth   David Andolfatto’s Twitter: @dandolfa David Andolfatto’s St. Louis Fed profile: https://www.stlouisfed.org/about-us/leadership-governance/bank-officers/executive-bios/david-andolfatto   Related Links:   *The Safe Asset Shortage and the Low Inflation of 2010-2019: A Money Demand View* by David Beckworth https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3992846   *The Prospect of Fiscal Dominance in the United States: A New Quantity Theory Perspective* by David Beckworth https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3969473   *The Fiscal Theory of Price Level with a Bubble* by Markus Brunnermeier, Sebastian Merkel, and Yuliy Sannikov https://www.nber.org/papers/w27116

27 Joulu 202147min

Talmon Smith is an economics reporter for The New York Times and joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the great inflation surge of 2021 and its implications for policy and politics. Specifically, David and Talmon discuss the potential drivers and implications of the great inflation surge that has taken place in 2021, the current and future state of supply chains, the impact of COVID-era stimulus, the state of the labor market, the political implications of the inflation surge, and much more.   Want to support the show? Visit donate.mercatus.org/podcasts.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Talmon’s Twitter: @talmonsmith Talmon’s New York Times profile: https://www.nytimes.com/by/talmon-joseph-smith   Related Links:   *One-year jump in energy prices is a big factor in inflation’s jump*  by Talmon Smith https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/10/business/inflation-cpi-stock-market-news#one-year-jump-in-energy-prices-is-a-big-factor-in-inflations-jump   *Americans’ Pandemic-Era ‘Excess Savings’ Are Dwindling for Many* by Talmon Smith https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/07/business/pandemic-savings.html   *President Biden's job approval sinking on inflation, crime and COVID: POLL* By Brittany Shepherd https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/president-bidens-job-approval-sinking-inflation-crime-covid/story?id=81701113   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

20 Joulu 202147min

Yesha Yadav is a law professor and associate dean at the Vanderbilt University Law School, where she works on banking and financial regulation, securities regulation, and the law of money and payment system. Yesha has written a recent paper titled, *The Failed Regulation of US Treasury Markets*, and she joins Macro Musings to discuss it. Specifically, David and Yesha talk about the implications of the 2020 Treasury market collapse, the fragmented nature of the Treasury market’s regulatory structure, solutions for reform, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Yesha’s Vanderbilt Law profile: https://law.vanderbilt.edu/bio/yesha-yadav Yesha’s Google Scholar archive: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Dn5cmSQAAAAJ&hl=en   Related Links:   *The Failed Regulation of U.S. Treasury Markets* by Yesha Yadav https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3365829   *Fragile Financial Regulation* by Pradeep Yadav and Yesha Yadav https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3685404   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

13 Joulu 202150min

Carola Binder is an Associate Professor of Economics at Haverford College, and Christina Parajon Skinner is an assistant professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. Both are returning guests to Macro Musings and they rejoin the podcast to talk about populism at the Fed and its implications for policy. Specifically, they discuss rising technopopulism at the Fed, the effect of populist pressures on its legitimacy, the importance of balancing experimentation and intellectual freedom with managing risks of politicization at the Fed, as well as their thoughts on the recent bouts of inflation.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Carola’s Twitter: @cconces Carola’s blog: https://carolabinder.blogspot.com/ Carola’s Haverford profile: https://carolabinder.sites.haverford.edu/   Christina’s Twitter: @CParaSkinner Christina’s Wharton profile: https://lgst.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/skinnerc/   Related Links:   Cato Institute 39th Annual Monetary Conference: Panel 1: The Populist Challenge to Fed Independence https://www.cato.org/multimedia/events/39th-annual-monetary-conference-panel-1-populist-challenge-fed-independence   *Technopopulism and Central Banks* by Carola Binder https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3823456   *Technopopulism: The New Logic of Democratic Politics* by Christopher J. Bickerton and Carlo Invernizzi Accetti https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/oso/9780198807766.001.0001/oso-9780198807766   *Central Bank Activism* by Christina Parajon Skinner https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/Microsites/fmlg/files/2021/Skinner_Central%20Bank%20Activism.pdf   *Laboratories of Central Banking* by Carola Binder and Christina Parajon Skinner https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3956845   *Fifty Shades of QE: Comparing Findings of Central Bankers and Academics* by Brian Fabo, Martina Jančoková, Elisabeth Kempf, and Ľuboš Pástor https://www.nber.org/papers/w27849   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

6 Joulu 202153min

Matthew Klein is the author of The Overshoot, a newsletter that helps readers make sense of the global economy. Matt is also a returning guest to the podcast, and rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the hot topic of inflation and its outlook. Specifically, David and Matt discuss what is driving trend inflation, Matt’s decomposition of the CPI, whether or not we should be worried about inflationary trends, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Matthew’s Twitter: @M_C_Klein Matthew’s Substack: https://theovershoot.co/about   Related Links:   *The Case for Patience on Inflation* by Matthew Klein https://theovershoot.co/p/the-case-for-patience-on-inflation   *What’s Going On With Interest Rates? (Part 1)* by Matthew Klein https://theovershoot.co/p/whats-going-on-with-interest-rates   *Fed Policy Must Adjust for Inflation* by Martin Wolf https://www.ft.com/content/dc3bedc7-5694-4868-8b86-f9a215966f52   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

29 Marras 202150min

Markus Brunnermeier is a professor of economics and the director of the Bendheim Center for Finance at Princeton University. Markus is also a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Markus joins Macro Musings to discuss his new book, titled “The Resilient Society,” as well as his work on safe assets and their implications for inflation. Specifically, David and Markus discuss the implications of the fiscal theory of the price level for inflation, the role of the Fed in stabilizing money markets, what is meant by “resilience” compared to “robustness” in economies, and much more.   Transcript can be found here.   Markus’s Twitter: @MarkusEconomist Markus’s Princeton profile: https://scholar.princeton.edu/markus/home   Related Links:   *The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level with a Bubble* by Markus Brunnermeier https://scholar.princeton.edu/markus/publications/fiscal-theory-price-level-bubble   *The Resilient Society* by Markus Brunnermeier https://bcf.princeton.edu/the-resilient-society/   *What Makes US Government Bonds Safe Assets?* by Zhiguo He, Arvind Krishnamurthy, and Konstantin Milbradt https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20161109   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

22 Marras 202151min

Ajmal Ahmady is the former acting governor of the Central Bank of Afghanistan and is now a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. Ajmal joins Macro Musings to talk about his experience as a central bank governor in Afghanistan and the challenges now facing the nation’s economy. Specifically, David and Ajmal discuss his unique role as the country’s central bank chief, the structure of the Afghan monetary system, the state of the nation’s economy moving forward, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Ajmal’s Twitter: @aahmady Ajmal’s Harvard biography: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/about/senior-fellows#ahmady Ajmal's research: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/mrcbg/programs/senior.fellows/2021-22/Ahmady_Research%20Proposal%20(summary).pdf   Related Links:   Ajmal’s Twitter thread about Afghanistan’s collapse: https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427265049668636674?lang=en   *Why Afghanistan Fell: An Insider’s Account of What Went Wrong* by Ajmal Ahmady https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2021-10-11/why-afghanistan-fell   *Afghanistan Faces an Economic Crisis, as Well as a Humanitarian One* by Ajmal Ahmady https://www.ft.com/stream/75ed5ed6-883f-402c-b04b-4d1ddd5ab670   *The Taliban Can't Print Cash and Other Afghan Business Challenges* by Ajmal Ahmady https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-07/the-taliban-can-t-mint-money-and-other-business-challenges-in-afghanistan   *Severe Drought Adds to Afghanistan’s Woes, Endangering Millions as Economy Collapses* by Sune Engel Rasmussen https://www.wsj.com/articles/severe-drought-adds-to-afghanistans-woes-endangering-millions-as-economy-collapses-11633872935#:~:text=Severe%20Drought%20Adds%20to%20Afghanistan's,Millions%20as%20Economy%20Collapses%20%2D%20WSJ&text=The%20drought%20has%20compounded%20the,Taliban%20overthrew%20the%20previous%20government.    *Regional Power Back Aid for Afghanistan as Russia Hosts the Taliban* by Aljazeera https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/20/russia-hosts-taliban-for-talks-but-warns-no-recognition-for-now   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

15 Marras 202137min

Peter Stella is the former Head of the IMF Central Banking division and has researched and written extensively on safe assets, collateral and central bank operations. Peter now hosts a website Central Banking Archeology. Peter joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the role of money and its relationship to inflation as well as its relationship to the payment system. Specifically, David and Peter discuss the fiscal theory of the price level, how rising indebtedness can signal higher inflation in the future, the implications of the fiscal theory for contemporary fiscal and monetary policy going forward, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Peter’s Twitter: @Stellar_Consult Peter’s website: https://www.centralbankarchaeology.com/ Peter’s Voxeu profile: https://voxeu.org/users/peterstella0 Peter’s Research Gate archive: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Peter_Stella   Related Links:    *Some Incredible Monetarist Arithmetic* by Peter Stella https://www.centralbankarchaeology.com/post/some-incredible-monetarist-arithmetic   *Some Alternative Monetary Facts* by Peter Stella, Manmohan Singh, and Apoorv Bhargava https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/01/08/Some-Alternative-Monetary-Facts-49975   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

8 Marras 202149min