SI377: What's New in SG Indices in 2026? + The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio ft. Alan Dunne

SI377: What's New in SG Indices in 2026? + The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio ft. Alan Dunne

Niels and Alan explore how a fragile macro regime reshapes systematic investing, from a politicised Fed succession to widening cracks in a debt-laden, equity-dependent economy. A shifting bond landscape, rising capital demands from AI and renewed tariff risks challenge the old 60/40 orthodoxy. Listener questions on US policy shocks and the Yen carry trade open a deeper look at when trend helps and when it hurts. The episode culminates in a world exclusive of SocGen's 2026 index changes and the first public reveal of Alan’s new paper: The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio, for genuinely resilient, opportunity-aware global wealth compounding intelligently, prudently over the decade ahead.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Voiceover and introduction to the Systematic Investor Series

00:23 - Niels and Alan open, what is on their radar this week

01:27 - Fed succession as a political risk factor and betting markets

03:33 - Crypto moves, Vanguard’s platform shift and MicroStrategy index pressure

05:53 - Listener questions: can constant US policy shocks break trend?

06:33 - Trouble for trend or just another regime to endure and adapt to

08:55 - Short-term CTAs, Liberation Day and when speed becomes a handicap

11:11 - How CTAs are positioned for a yen carry unwind and JGB nuances

12:16 - November trend update, five straight positive months and short-term pain

13:35 - World exclusive: new SocGen CTA and Trend index line-ups and cutoffs

21:02 - Tariffs, AI capex, rising long rates and the changing bond landscape

29:28 - Is this really a 1990s-style productivity boom or something riskier?

33:52 - Why traditional versus alternative is the wrong lens for portfolios

38:30 - Inside Alan’s Adaptive Portfolio and the 40/40/20 risk framework

47:48 - Behavioural traps and the chronic under-allocation to true diversifiers

53:34 - Tail risks, fiscal dominance and what most portfolios are missing

56:59 - Adaptive versus 60/40: drawdowns, compounding and implications for retirees

01:01:42 - Implementation, return stacking and Morningstar’s leverage label problem

01:05:54 - Closing reflections, next week’s episode and final risk reminders

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Episoder(915)

TTU51: Planning for Failure, Not Planning to Fail ft. Rob Hartman of Pacific Capital Advisors – 1of2

TTU51: Planning for Failure, Not Planning to Fail ft. Rob Hartman of Pacific Capital Advisors – 1of2

In starting any business, you run into unexpected roadblocks and challenges, and you learn something from each mistake. Our next guest is the founder of a trading firm who has grown his business twice...

15 Des 20141h 13min

TTU50: Why Optimism is Important ft. Dave Sanderson of KFL Capital Management – 2of2

TTU50: Why Optimism is Important ft. Dave Sanderson of KFL Capital Management – 2of2

Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with Dave Sanderson. In this episode we explore his trading program in detail, from the markets the firm trades to how they describe their program to investors. W...

4 Des 20141h 14min

TTU49: Will Big Data Enable KFL to Predict the Future? ft. Dave Sanderson of KFL Capital Management – 1of2

TTU49: Will Big Data Enable KFL to Predict the Future? ft. Dave Sanderson of KFL Capital Management – 1of2

Our next guest on Top Traders Unplugged is the CEO and Co-Founder of KFL. In this episode we explore their trading strategy and uncover the fundamental differences between what they are doing that mak...

1 Des 20141h 15min

TTU48: How to Understand a New Manager’s Track Record ft. Bastian Bolesta of Deep Field Capital – 2of2

TTU48: How to Understand a New Manager’s Track Record ft. Bastian Bolesta of Deep Field Capital – 2of2

In the second part of our interview with Bastian, we talk about the ins and outs of his trading program and how they came to create the current trading system that they run now. Niels talks with Basti...

27 Nov 20141h 20min

TTU47: How to Start Managing Client Capital ft. Bastian Bolesta of Deep Field Capital – 1of2

TTU47: How to Start Managing Client Capital ft. Bastian Bolesta of Deep Field Capital – 1of2

The story of Deep Field Capital’s Founder and CEO is an interesting one. Bastian Bolesta met his future partners whilst spending a semester abroad in China before returning to Germany and then moving ...

24 Nov 20141h 23min

TTU46: The Benefits of Negative Correlation ft. Roy Niederhoffer of R. G. Niederhoffer Capital Management – 2of2

TTU46: The Benefits of Negative Correlation ft. Roy Niederhoffer of R. G. Niederhoffer Capital Management – 2of2

In our continued conversation with Roy Niederhoffer, we discuss risk management, drawdowns, why negative correlation is so important to Roy, and what gets him out of bed every morning (and what keeps ...

20 Nov 20141h 23min

TTU45: How To Overcome Cognitive Bias in Investing & Trading ft. Roy Niederhoffer of R. G. Niederhoffer Capital Management – 1of2

TTU45: How To Overcome Cognitive Bias in Investing & Trading ft. Roy Niederhoffer of R. G. Niederhoffer Capital Management – 1of2

Roy Niederhoffer has a fascinating live story that starts with Harvard and neuroscience and continues into his starting a hedge fund in the short-term trading space in 1993. Roy discusses the exciting...

17 Nov 20141h 18min

TTU44: Buy Low & Sell High: Is It Really That Easy? ft. Mark Whitmore of Whitmore Capital Management – 2of2

TTU44: Buy Low & Sell High: Is It Really That Easy? ft. Mark Whitmore of Whitmore Capital Management – 2of2

In the second part of our conversation with the founder of Whitmore Capital Management, we learn the daily challenges, and lessons learned right from the founder and owner of a fledgling firm. We dive...

13 Nov 20141h 23min

Populært innen Business og økonomi

lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
stopp-verden
dine-penger-pengeradet
e24-podden
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
rss-borsmorgen-okonominyhetene
livet-pa-veien-med-jan-erik-larssen
utbytte
pengesnakk
tid-er-penger-en-podcast-med-peter-warren
pengepodden-2
stormkast-med-valebrokk-stordalen
morgenkaffen-med-finansavisen
rss-sunn-okonomi
liberal-halvtime
rss-politisk-preik
finansredaksjonen
rss-markedspuls-2
lederpodden
okonomiamatorene