210. Our Predictions for 2026

210. Our Predictions for 2026

Happy New Year energy nerds

As tradition demands (and lawyers insist), the first episode of the year is the annual ritual where Gerard, Laurent, and Michael boldly predict the future of the energy transition… and then publicly roast themselves for last year’s bad calls.

Before unleashing our 2026 Predictions, we do a mandatory rewind to the crystal-ball disasters of 2025: The 2025 prophecy graveyard:
  1. US oil production down in 2025 (MB — bold, brave… wrong)
  2. Oil at $40/bbl in 2025 (GR — oof)
  3. Geopolitics + broken supply chains + energy chaos = a better, more innovative world (LS — still hoping)
  4. A bloodbath for hydrogen in transportation (MB — disturbingly accurate)
  5. Record installs: Solar 700GW, EVs 20m, Batteries 200GWh (spot on)
  6. The death of all things labelled ESG, Climate, and Carbon (LS — prematurely optimistic)
Scorecard: Gerard absolutely nailed Silver: from $30/oz to $60/oz in 18 months. BP technically survived 2025… but welcomed a new CEO, so partial credit at best.

Michael wins overall, which he will remind us of repeatedly. After heroic levels of co-host sabotage, Laurent loses again, as is now canon.
Our 2026 Predictions:
🔥 China battery systems at $40/kWh, full-system LFP (MB)
🔥 Half of all announced datacenters will never be built — welcome to the credit + grid crisis (LS)
🔥 Wind and solar installs DOWN in 2026 vs 2025 (GR — spicy)
🔥 20GW of solar in Africa in 2026 (MB)
🔥 The GhG Protocol revision fight gets ugly, personal, and possibly litigious (LS)
🔥 LNG glut creates stranded assets everywhere: flat demand, too much supply, tears on spreadsheets (GR)

And yes, plenty more hot takes, bruised egos, and inconvenient truths to kick off the year the right way.

🎙️ Welcome to 2026. Let’s redefine energy.

Episoder(180)

189.  Energy Disruptions - (Gerard on "Clean Titans")

189. Energy Disruptions - (Gerard on "Clean Titans")

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188.  US/Petrostate vs EU/Electrostate – a joint episode with Open Circuit

188. US/Petrostate vs EU/Electrostate – a joint episode with Open Circuit

On July 7th, Gerard and Laurent were invited to appear on the U.S. podcast Open Circuit, alongside Jigar Shah, Katherine Hamilton, and Stephen Lacey. It was an emotional reunion—Jigar and Katherine we...

28 Jul 202532min

187. Texas: Power Surge or Power Splurge? - Jul25

187. Texas: Power Surge or Power Splurge? - Jul25

Texas is an oddity in the western electricity world: fastest growing load, ultra-low prices, crazy development of renewables. Texas consumes now more power than France, despite having only half the po...

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186. Power under Pressure: Fortum’s CEO on Datacenters’ growth and Russian Attacks (Eurelectric)

186. Power under Pressure: Fortum’s CEO on Datacenters’ growth and Russian Attacks (Eurelectric)

Laurent had the pleasure and privilege of sitting down with Markus Rauramo, CEO of Fortum, during the Eurelectric “Power Play” conference in Brussels this June.  Fortum, the Finnish energy company als...

14 Jul 202524min

185. Blackouts - Jul25

185. Blackouts - Jul25

What Really Happened During the Iberian Blackout This Spring? And How Should We Make Sense of the Conflicting Reports?  To shed light on the events, Gerard and Laurent are joined by global energy expe...

7 Jul 202524min

184. Market dynamics and Pricing of Battery Materials - Jun25

184. Market dynamics and Pricing of Battery Materials - Jun25

Six years ago, Simon Moores, CEO of Benchmark Minerals Intelligence shook the world in a now legendary testimony in front of the US Senate. Then, Simon predicted the exponential growth of batteries an...

22 Jun 202533min

183. Energy Security from the front line: Eastern Europe and Renewables - Jun25

183. Energy Security from the front line: Eastern Europe and Renewables - Jun25

Laurent remembers vividly his trip to Sofia Bulgaria in winter 2009 when the Russians had cut the gas for Bulgaria during a -15C winter. Russia was already playing hard ball because of (guess what) a ...

15 Jun 202527min

182. Broken grids and Datacenters load growth  - Jun25

182. Broken grids and Datacenters load growth - Jun25

We have recently witnessed spectacular black outs: South Australia 2016, Texas Uri 2021, California 2020-21-25 and Iberia 2025. We are not even mentioning fragile grids in the Global South.  We will d...

9 Jun 202532min

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